Closing Market Comments May 11, 2021

Today’s Prices

Grain markets were higher as there was some short covering and end user buying ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May crop report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Temperatures: 5-11-21 6am

Warmer weather would certainly be beneficial. Today’s temperatures at or even a little below freezing in the northwestern belt into the northern Plains. It’s getting awfully late to still be seeing frosty temperatures.

24-Hour Observed Precipitation

Yesterday was a drier day but we did start to see some rains develop in the western Plains. Those rains were welcomed. The biggest area of concern right now is the northwestern belt where they have drought conditions in place and much more rain is going to be needed to avoid crop challenges during the growing season.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The good news is that IA is looking for 0.5-0.75” in the north and 1-2” in the south.NE is looking for 1” or more in the eastern and southern portions of the state. Even the dry areas of MN and SD could see 0.5”. This is not a drought breaker but any rain they can received will be seen as beneficial.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The 6-10 and 8-14 day showing that improved forecast. We do need to see this forecast verify but if it does, warmer temperatures would be beneficial. If you’re in July and temperatures are above normal that may be threatening but in May warmer temperatures are beneficial. Also, good news for the western belt, Plains, and northwestern belt where above normal precipitation is forecasted for the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast. This forecast looks pretty good but it still has to verify. We have to see those warmer temperatures develop and the rainfall start to improve as well. If the forecast is close to being accurate then it should provide pretty good conditions for most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

30-Day Precipitation % of Normal

The eastern belt and the deep south for the most part is in pretty good shape. Some areas have had a little above or below normal. Maybe a little too much rain in parts of OH and LA but most of the eastern belt down into the Delta is in pretty good shape. You can clearly see the northwestern belt could use additional rain. The northwestern belt could use additional rain.  IA did get some pretty good rains but they’re still well behind average for the last 30 days so additional rain is needed. That is also the case in the central and southern Plains, that extends into the northern Plains as well. So there is plenty of areas that need additional moisture just to start catching up to average.

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

The drier conditions in much of the belt has allowed corn planting to advance nicely. Corn planting advanced 21% from 46% planted to 67% planted this week so we’re off to a pretty good start. Most farmers are telling us conditions are pretty good right now.

Weekly Corn Planting Progress

We can see 29% of the crop was planted two weeks ago and 21% last week so in 2 weeks the U.S. farmers have planted 50% of this year’s corn crop. That’s a couple of pretty good back-to-back weeks for corn planting.

Soybean Planting Progress

Soybean planting up 18% so we’re now 42% planted and that is well above average. Our thoughts on bean planting is similar to corn, we’re getting off to a pretty good start, acres are getting planted, most of the conditions are pretty good but we’ll need additional rains going forward.

Winter Wheat Crop Condition

Also released in yesterday’s after crop progress and condition report was the winter wheat. Winter wheat improved 1$ from 48% to 49% G/E. This year’s rating is almost in the middle of what we would expect.

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks

South American 2021 Production

World Ending Stocks

July Corn Chart

Corn prices had an outside day. Overnight last night we took out yesterday’s low. During the day today we made a new high but we closed within yesterday’s range. The market is just chopping around waiting for USDA’s numbers to be released tomorrow. Current overhead resistance would be at Friday’s high $7.35, about 13 cents above today’s close with chart support down around the $6.84 level on the July chart.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices pushed sharply higher today making a new high for the move up to $16.25. Our long term trend is still an uptrend. Our intermediate term trend is still an uptrend and our short-term trend is an uptrend. At this point beans are in an uptrend. Technical indicators are very overbought but there is not sign of topping action yet.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices made a double top last week at $7.41. Chart support is at $6.82. Anything within this range in fair game in the near term as wheat waits for additional price direction and leadership from corn and beans and also waiting for any additional fundamental news from tomorrow’s USDA crop report.