U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks

USDA has been at 120 mb for the last 4 months. Basically, USDA is saying that’s a minimum pipeline level and really somewhat reluctant to drop below that level. We believe the 120 mb is a pretty good guess right now. If we got some fresh sales of beans that number could slip lower. No matter how you slice the pie, soybean stocks are going to be virtually out before we get to the new crop and that’s going to continue to provide support on the old crop prices.

Soybean stocks at 120 mb this year is very close to record low for stocks and when we look at stocks to use, it is an all-time record low as we’re on the verge of running out of cash soybeans this summer. USDA did project ending stocks for next year at 140 mb, so a small increase but that is still very tight and there is no room for error with this year’s crop.