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Grain markets finished mixed today. The weather forecast is still lightly threatening for the northwestern belt but another negative ruling in the courts again bio-fuels sent corn lower today.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
30-Day Observed Precipitation
In 30 days we should be getting 4-5” of rain so tan or even the red would be about average for June. With that in mind, much of the eastern belt and southeast U.S. has had about average precipitation with above average in MO. But areas in green have had less than 2” of rain over the past month and that is less than half of average. Those are the areas that will be most quick to see crop stress if we don’t get better rains soon.
30-Day Precipitation % of Normal
Anything in brown is less than 50%, red is less the 25% of normal. So the areas of concern are the areas that have had half the amount of normal rain over the past month and that includes mush of the northwestern belt and northern Plains. If we draw a line from northern Chicago to St. Joseph MO, south and east of that line is in pretty good shape with the exception of areas with too much rain but nonetheless, soil moisture shortage is really not an issue south and east of this line.
Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking
The soil moisture ranking shows that IA is on the edge, drier to the northwest, wetter to the southeast and NE also drier to the northwest. Therefore, NE and IA could have a big role in whether prices could go up or down, whether our dry line pushes further to the south and east or whether the wetter pushes to the northwest. Again, IA and NE right on the border.
Yesterday’s High Temps 7-1-21
Yesterday’s high temperatures shows mostly favorable temperatures across the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt with mostly 80’s. A couple upper 70’s and low 90’s but mostly 80’s. Very nice weather provided you have adequate soil moisture. But we can see the heat starting to build again in the northern Plains. ND and SD saw temperatures generally in the 90’s yesterday. They will only get hotter over the next few days.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast calls for decent rains. Generally 0.5-0.75” of rain over the northwestern belt. The exception would be the northern Plains which may miss out. Some areas could see an inch or better. Other areas a little bit less. Bottom line, the rains that are possible next week Tues and Wed kept traders on the defensive today, going into the 3-day weekend. Good news for portions of MO where they’ve seen tremendous flooding. They should only see light rains over the next week and that should certainly to see the standing water start to subside.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts still show heat in the northwestern belt and northern Plains. The precipitation forecast for the next two weeks shows that IA and NE still right on the border with drier conditions to the northwest and wetter conditions to the southeast. We see that in the 8-14 day forecast on the right side as well. Drier to the northwest and wetter to the southeast.
Predicted Soil Moisture Anomaly Change
If the forecast is correct, sure we’ll get some rains and that would be beneficial but it still looks like we have net soil moisture decline. This map shows the soil moisture change over the next two weeks and even though there are some lighter rains in the forecast, it generally shows decline soil moisture over the next few weeks.
Grain Market News
December Corn Chart
The extreme volatility that we’ve seen all summer long continued this week. Prices started out the week sharply lower and ended up sharply higher. Overhead resistance is currently up in the $6.28-$6.38 level with chart support initially where our 20 and 40-day averages come into play, and then if weather turns much of favorable, in the lower $5 range. If the current forecast doesn’t change. If we come in next week on Tuesday and the forecast still looks threatening for the northwestern belt, we would not be surprised to see prices re-testing the summer highs. We do have to point out, it’s all about the weather forecast coming into next Tuesday’s trade.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also have seen extremely volatility this summer. We started out the week lower and ended the week higher. Our attitude on beans is similar to corn, it’s all about weather. If today’s forecast does verify we’re going to get some rain but not enough and prices could re-test the previous highs.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices no exception. We saw extreme volatility this week. Up sharply following the USDA’s report. Down sharply over the last couple of days. The overall trend is still up in wheat but we’ve seen a substantial pullback, 50-cents off of yesterday’s mornings highs. Wheat will likely be a follower to the general direction of corn and beans over the next couple of weeks.
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