Closing Market Comments August 20, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished sharply lower. Initially on follow through to yesterday’s poor performance but negative news regarding the possibility of the EPA lowering biofuel mandates added additional selling pressure.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Pro Farmer 2021 Crop Tour Corn Yield

Pro Farmer 2021 Crop Tour Bean Pods

Pro Farmer History

Grain Market News

High Temperatures Thursday 8-19-21

Yesterday’s high temperatures mostly in the low 90’s across the northwestern belt. 80’s across the central and southern belt. These temperatures are quite warm in the northern belt but not excessive but would certainly cause stress if you’re lacking moisture.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar shows those rains developing in the northwestern Plains, ND, SD, and northwest MN. They’re scattered in nature but additional rains are expected in MN all the way through much of IA over the next 3-5 days.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The heart of the belt has not seen rain this week and it has been warm and, in some cases, a little bit hot. We’re starting to see rain in the northern Plains. What you see in the Dakota’s and NE fell last night. As we mentioned, additional rains are expected in the northern Plains and northwestern belt over the next few days.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7-day precipitation forecast shows those additional rains in the northwestern belt with 1-2” could be common with heavy rains up in ND along the Canadian border. It’s possible that areas within IA could see some heavier soaking rains as well.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

We view the longer-term map as non-threatening. Temperatures at or just a little above normal in the 6-10 and the 8-14 day with precipitation mixed. Some areas a little above and some areas a little below. We view this as mostly a none threatening forecast as we head towards the end of August.

30-Day Forecast

The forecast for September is about average temperatures and about average precipitation. A little less rain to the west and a little bit more to the east but overall, we view this September forecast as non-threatening as well. No extreme heat and no frost at least based on the longer-term map.

U.S. Vegetation Health Index

This year as of Aug 12th is on the left and in the northern Plains and northwestern belt vegetation is on the low end of the scale and it’s even worse in the Pacific Northwest. Compare that to 1 year ago and you can see much better health in the northern Plains and northwestern belt. It’s possible that we can start to see the evidence of the derecho in the vegetation health index.

Vegetation Health Change

When we compare our vegetation health index as of Aug 12th vs one year ago we can see the northwestern belt and northern Plains certainly much lower vegetation health vs a year ago. Same thing is true in the Pacific Northwest. What’s interesting is that even much of the central U.S. corn and bean belt has vegetation health rated below a year ago.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices had a negative week. The chart has turned down. In fact, the last two days down sharply. We’re now challenging the $5.32 level that was established back in July. Technical indicators are pointed downward and there’s no sign of a bottom yet but prices are reaching significant chart support. Technical indicators are approaching the oversold level. Even though there’s no sign of bottoming action, this is no place to be making fresh sales. The market has been very choppy and we expect more choppy trade in the weeks and months to come.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices very negative as well for the last 2 days. Prices breaking below chart support down to $12.77. We believe we’re pushing towards a level that would be below fair value but right now the chart is pointed downward. Technicals are pointed downward. There is no sign of a bottom. But with prices dropping $1/bu in just three and a half days, here again this is no place to be making sales in beans.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also sharply lower this week, challenging the lows posted around the 1st of August and a similar make up in the wheat chart. The chart is pointed downward. Techncials are pointed downward. There is no sign of bottoming action from the chart or technicals but we’re reaching a level that is very close to support and this is not a place to be making sales.

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