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Grain markets stabilized, even bounced a little today as the market tries to factor in damage and delays in the New Orleans export area.
Grain Market News
Cargill’s Grain Facility
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Today’s export sales are from the last full week of the last marketing year which ended Aug 31st and sales last week negative 300 tmt. At the end of the crop year there were some cancelations of sales that were on the books.
Soybean: Weekly Export Sales
Soybean export sales were a positive 68 tmt. That’s about one cargo. But old crop is really irrelevant at this time because anything sold last week isn’t going to ship in the same week and it likely be shipping in the new crop period which began yesterday. Good news is that new crop sales were very good at 1.159 mmt of corn and 2.132 mmt of beans. So very impressive new crop sales were made last week for the new crop position.
Grain Market News
Yesterday’s High Temperatures 9-1-21
Temperatures in most of the U.S. corn and bean belt in the upper 70’s, low 80’s yesterday. We did have some extreme heat in the southwestern and southern Plains, down into the Delta but that is not the heart of the U.S. growing season and crops are nearing harvest in those regions.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
1-3” of rain were quite come in the northwestern belt over the last 7 days and 1-3” quite come in the OH Valley. More scattered showers in and around those two areas. Good news in the Delta where the bulk of corn and beans are grown in the southern area, no rain was seen in areas like the boothill of MO and maybe a 0.5-1.0” in the Delta. The heaviest rains fell east of the heart of our growing areas in the south.
14-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last two weeks, 2-5” of rain over much of the northwestern belt. Much more scattered in the eastern belt and very little rain in the southwestern Plains over the past 2 weeks.
30-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last 30 days, 2-5” of rain fell in much of the northwestern belt with 5-10” of rain in portions of northern IA, southern MN, and central WI. Again, we see much more scattered rainfall in the eastern belt and much less in the Plains. Anything in green would be well below normal for August and the blues in the southwestern Plains is less than 0.5” but that is not the heart of the belt.
30-Day Precipitation – % of Normal
Some very good rains in portions of the northern belt and northern Plains. Some pretty good rains along the OH Valley and portions of central IL. But some areas missed out on the better rains. Northern IL, central IN, southeastern IA, much of MO, and the southwestern Plains missed out on the better rains during August.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast calls for 0.5-1.5” over much of the U.S. corn and bean belt over the next 7 days. Lighter totals possibly in the southern Great Lakes/eastern belt region, and the far southern Plains/Delta region. Most of the belt should see 1.0-1.5” over the next 7 days. Most of that rainfall falling Thurs, Fri, and Sat. Things look to dry out over the weekend and into next week.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
We can see that drier trend in our 6-10 and 8-14 day. Precipitation below normal in the 6-10 as well as the 8-14 day. Temperatures mixed in the 6-10 day, cool in the east, warm to the west, and about average in the central. We warm up to above normal for most areas in the 8-14 day forecast. We do not see anything threatening in the current forecast for the next 2 weeks.
December Corn Chart
With the exception of a spike following the Aug crop report from USDA, the markets have generally been trending lower over the past 6 weeks. We believe fair value based on supply and demand is probably 20-cents on either side of the $5.50 level. That means $5.70-$5.30 is probably fair value. We spiked above following the crop report where prices over did it to the upside. Now prices have spiked to the downside based on hurricane Ida and probably overdoing it to the downside. Prices are down at the lower end of even a down trending channel with technicals in the oversold and most often this creates an opportunity for markets to bounce over the next 2-3 weeks.
November Soybean Chart
The same thing is true in soybeans where we’ve had a range between about $13-$13.50 for an extended period of time. We spiked above it following the Aug USDA crop report and now we’ve spiked below based on hurricane Ida. And similar to corn, we’re at the lower end of a down trending channel. Technicals indicators in the oversold and this likely presents a pretty good opportunity for a bounce over the next 2-3 weeks.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices also pulling down towards major chart support with technical indicators oversold and again we would not be surprised to see the wheat market trying to work higher over the next 2-3 weeks. These markets don’t have to explode to the upside but certainly chart and technicals are telling us odds are increasing that we could see a bounce from chart support and oversold technical levels.
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