Closing Market Comments September 23, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished higher today. A lot of the support coming from the outside markets which were sharply higher. Also, global grain prices were higher today adding support for U.S. prices as well.

Grain Market News

2-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the past 2 days rains have been centered on primarily IN, OH, and MI. The western three-fourth of the belt has been dry over the past couple of days and harvest will be ramping up quickly if it hasn’t all ready started in many areas of the western belt.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7-day forecast has added precipitation for the central and southern Plains. Nothing heavy called for almost completely dry conditions earlier this week. So this is a change in the forecast and this is good news for the hard red winter wheat belt. The northern Plains, northwestern belt, central belt into the Delta and OH Valley could see almost completely dry conditions over the next week which would certainly allow for a ramping up of harvest in those areas.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The temperature outlook remains above normal for the entire central U.S. over the next 2 weeks. A little bit of change in the precipitation outlook with the forecast now calling for better rains in the Plains states in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day, remaining dry in the central belt into the eastern belt. Overall, we very the forecast as mostly favorable heading into the U.S. corn and soybean harvest.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Weekly export sales of corn were disappointing, just 373 tmt. That is well below and about only half the level needed to reach USDA’s forecast. Exports have been disappointing for corn but we do expect them to increase nicely over the next 30-60 days.

Soybean: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean exports were above the level needed at 903 tmt but that is still a relatively small number for this time of year. We won’t be surprised to see some bigger export numbers coming from China as we move through Oct, Nov, Dec. China has been buying on a regular basis but only small volumes. We would not be surprised to China stepping in for bigger volumes over the next 30-60 days.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat export sales were very good at 617 tmt. That was a marketing year high and well above the 372 tmt needed weekly to reach USDA’s export forecast.

Grain Market News

December Corn Chart

Corn prices look pretty good. We had a pullback in the market late last week and early this week but the market has been rebounding the last couple of days. The chart look pretty solid for an uptrend if we can take out the $5.37 highs that were posted last week. The technical indicators look pretty good as well.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices aren’t going anywhere in a hurry but the market does show some signs of putting in somewhat of a U-shape bottom here prior to the heart of harvest. Technical indicators look pretty good after 2 days of rallying so the chart and technicals looking more supportive for beans.  If the soybean market could take out the $13.08 highs posted last week, that would look very good from a chart perspective.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look very good today. Similar to corn, the market pulled back late last week and early last week but did not take out the lows from the previous week. That gives the chart solid bottoming action at this time and if we can close above the $7.23 highs from last week, that would look very good on the chart as well. Technical indicators for wheat have returned to the upside so chart and technicals look pretty good for KC wheat.

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