Grain prices finished higher, mostly in a recovery mode, following the recent losses.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Planting Progress
We are at 22% planted, that is near record lows. Next week we should see a nice improvement, we are estimating somewhere between 20-25% may get planted this week depending on how much rain falls between now and this weekend.
That could put us up into the upper 40s for percent planted.
Now that is still going to be an extremely slow start and we will still be 2 weeks behind average.
Soybean Planting Progress
Soybean progress came in at 12% complete, near record lows. Next week we should see that pick up significantly, maybe pushing up close to 30% levels in next weeks reports.
It’s still going to be a slow start to the planting season, but like corn we will start to have much better percentages.
Winter Wheat Crop Conditions
Winter wheat did improve from 27% to 29% good to excellent, which is still a very low rating and the lowest since 1996.
With heat and dryness in the southern plains we would expect crop conditions likely to hold about steady heading into next week’s report.
Yesterday we saw a big increase in the temperatures across the central US corn and bean belt and the heart of the belt, with a lot of temperatures in the mid upper 80s even low 90s.
That’s really going to help not only start drying the soil out more quickly but also warm up the soil temperatures for when planting takes place.
More heat in the southern and southwestern Palins with temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s for the third day in a row, that’s going to hurt wheat conditions down in southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle.
3-Day Observed Precipitation
We have seen substantial rain for most of North Dakota, northern South Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota.
This is an area of concern where planting has been minimal at best, and we are not going to see much progress this week due to rainfall of generally a .5-1 inch and some 2-3 inches.
The eastern belt into the southern belt where planting should be accelerating quickly, very little or no rain over the past 3 days is a positive factor. It is allowing significant drying where there was lots of moisture.
Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois all reported 40-60% surplus soil moisture, but the 3 days of drying and a good-looking forecast should allow them to start accelerating the planting pace.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
The forecast unfortunately calls for more rain in North Dakota and adjacent areas of South Dakota and Minnesota. Planting is going to remain slow if not at a standstill in many of these areas.
But rain that is forecast over the next 7 days is relatively light, generally .25-.50 inches, overall, that’s not bad.
With temperatures in the 80s and low 90s we should see lots of progress taking place.
Grain Market News
Grain Market News
Wheat is grown primarily in the northern and north central portions of India. About 90% of the wheat is grown here.
Now through May 18th shows very little to no rain across most of their wheat growing area and all the way through late May shows mostly dry conditions. This not good news for the India wheat crop.
Temperatures in India expected to be above normal for most of their wheat growing areas, some areas could see well above normal temperatures.
Yield losses could be 15-20% for India’s wheat crop.
U.S. Ending Stocks
July Corn Chart
Corn prices today did hold chart support at our uptrend line and where our 40-day moving average comes into play, but it was an inside day ending slightly higher.
The short-term chart is still pointed downward but we are sitting right at significant chart support and technical indicators are in the oversold area.
July Soybean Chart
Soybean prices had an inside day, did close a little higher so the chart is still pointed downward despite the fact we closed higher today.
Technical indicators, which were oversold as ever, did start to show signs of hooking.
If the market can close a little higher tomorrow it may signal some bottoming action in beans, and we would not be surprised to see the bean market working back higher as we move forward.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have been on a rally here recently, over the last 3 days we started to consolidate a little bit, but nonetheless the wheat market looks to be on solid footing from a trend perspective.
The next overhead resistance is at the $12-12.02 range where there is a double top, if that is breached then 12.59 would be the next target.
We currently have significant chart support down in the 11.40-11.50 range.
Questions or Comments
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