Closing Market Comments September 26, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower today partially on harvest pressure that will develop this week but most of the pressure due to weak outside markets.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

This week was down from a week ago, 18 million bushels this week.

We should be increasing as corn is working its way from harvest into the export pipeline.

We will see larger exports down the road, but for the moment US export inspections this week were disappointing.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybeans at just 9 million bushels inspected for export this week which is very disappointing.

Down from last week, normally we would need to be seeing exports increasing very rapidly this time of year.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat was also down sharply form last week down to 19 million bushels.

That’s the lowest going back about 6 weeks, the wheat exports were disappointing as well.

Grain Market News

Wednesday’s Low Temperatures

Outside of some cool temperatures on Wednesday morning, this map shows the projected lows for Wednesday.

We could be a little bit frosty in southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, into Wisconsin.

This is not indicating a freeze or hard freeze just a possibility for frost which will not affect the crops.

60-Day Precipitation- % of Normal

The 60-day precipitation shows portions of the eastern belt, delta into the Ohio valley did pretty well in August and September.

Also, a pocket from northeast Iowa, northern Illinois, and the southern Wisconsin area did well.

Much of the central and western belt into almost all the plains was relatively dry and that’s where yields are likely going to be somewhat disappointing due to lack of moisture during the important filling stages.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The weather for harvest looks very good, virtually no rain is expected over the next 7 days across the heart of the belt through Iowa, Illinois, southern Minnesota, Nebraska, northern Missouri, and western Indiana.

Temperature Outlook

That favorable harvest weather continues all the way out into day 14.

Our 6–10-day shows mostly above normal temperatures, 8-14 day above normal as well for the entire belt.

We also have a dryer than normal pattern for the entire belt in the 6-10 and that continues into the 8-14 day.

Cattle on Feed

Cattle on feed was up 4/10 of a percent from last year and near the highest level over the past 15 years.

Monthly Chinese Feed Production

Their feed production, commercial feed production during August, was slightly below last year but it was the second highest level of any month going back over the past 5 years.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices are still in an uptrend off the lows posted back in July.

Markets have pulled back, we had bullish news from the September crop report, bullish news a week ago on Russia’s referendum votes, and then a lack of bullish news Thursday through today has allowed the market to push lower.

Corn is now testing chart support at the bottom of its up-trending channel.

We closed below the 10- and 20-day moving averages for the first time going back earlier in the summer.

We bed to get some bullish news and find some support at the bottom of this up trending channel or risk pulling back into 6.36-6.42 range where we had a couple of tops back earlier in the summer.

November Soybean Chart

Soybeans had bullish news from the USDA crop report, bullish news about Russia/Ukraine war, but a lack of bullish news on Thursday through today has pushed prices back down towards uptrend support.

Very similar to our discussion with corn, the market needs to find support and get some bullish news or risk potentially coming down into these multiple lows between 13.56-13.76.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices like corn and beans have pulled back Friday and today.

Wheat is starting to approach chart support just below where we closed today.

Wheat is in a very similar situation from a chart perspective, the short term is turned downward, technical has turned downward, and we need to find support quickly.

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