Closing Market Comments September 27, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today trading on both sides of unchanged and following the lead from the outside markets.

Grain Market News

Quarterly Stocks

The trade is expecting corn at 1497 which is down from the September numbers of 1525.

Soybeans was expecting stocks at 247, it came in at 240 in September’s crop report.

Wheat is estimated at 1795, this is not the projected ending stock this is the quarterly stocks as of September 1st.

September 1st Corn Stocks vs. Average Trade Est.

Last year stocks came in 69 million bushels above what the trade was expecting whereas the previous two years stocks came in well below.

September 1st Soybean Stocks vs. Average Trade Est.

Last year soybeans came in at 84 million bushels above the average trade guess whereas stocks were below expectations the previous two years.

U.S. Wheat Production

The trade is not expecting much of a change at all, 1784 versus the august crop report at 1783.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Condition

52% good to excellent which is a poor rating compared to last year at 59%.

Clearly the crop condition rating is hinting at a U.S. crop well below trend, the trendline yield is 181 and USDA is projecting 172.5.

Corn- Change in G/E

Iowa was unchanged, Illinois down 2, Nebraska did improve by 1% but Minnesota down 1.

So basically, improving states offset the climbing states and we held steady.

Soybean Crop Production

Soybeans held steady at 55% good to excellent but that’s below last year and the trend line.

The trend line yield for U.S. soybeans is 52.5%.

Soybeans- Change in G/E

The major states like Iowa and Illinois were both down 1 and the third largest was up 1 and declining state offset the improving states.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

No precipitation expected across the heart of the belt over the next 7 days, and this could last as much as 10-14 days.

Harvest will be ramping up in a big way with many states running uninterrupted for an extended amount of time.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices challenging the trend line support from our uptrend channel that’s been in place going back to the July lows.

The chart does look somewhat disappointing with popping action being hinted at on the chart and the technical pointed downward.

It will be important that corn hold this trend line support over the next couple of days or we could risk a push down into the 6.36-6.42 range.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices sitting right on chart support, the chart does look disappointing and technical indicators are pointed down.

There is no sign of bottoming action, we need to see the soybean market finding support at this uptrend line.

If that gives away, we are opening the door for the 13.56-13.76 range.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat has corrected off last week’s high, technical indicators are pointed downward, and wheat closed firm today.

If the uptrend lines are broken for wheat, it does open the door for additional downside pressure.

As of today, trend line support is still holding for corn, beans, and wheat.

Questions or Comments