Closing Market Comments December 6, 2022 with Recommendations

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as an overall choppy, back and forth pattern continues.

Grain Market News

Unleaded Gasoline

Gasoline futures down to $2.12 per gallon, that’s less than half of where our gasoline was trading back in June.

Ethanol Swaps- January

Ethanol swaps is where most of the fuel ethanol is traded.

You can see ethanol prices have been dropping as well.

Down from $2.33 a gallon just over a week ago to $2.11 per gallon.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Week 1 has most of Brazil in good shape except for extreme southern Brazil.

The second week shows continued good rains in the north but we could see some dryness in the south.

Argentina’s forecast has turned dryer over the last 24 hours.

There is still some rain in northern Argentina in the first week, but the second week has turned dryer.

Observed Surface High Temps

Argentina had temperatures almost everywhere in the 100s yesterday while Brazil is in the 80s.

Tuesday’s High Temperatures

Today’s forecast high for Tuesday shows more of the same.

90s and a lot of 100s across Argentina and mostly 70-80s in Brazil.

China Covid Chart

Their covid cases have ramped up challenging the record high number of covid cases from spring.

The good news is when we look at weekly deaths, even though cases are up, deaths are not rising.

If we continue to see a low death rate, that may allow them to lighten up or ease the covid restrictions.

U.S. Ending Stocks

This data is for the estimate for ending stocks, we are not going to do production because USDA does not adjust production estimates in the December report.

Corn stock estimates is 1.241 billion bushels, up about 60 million from last month’s report.

Soybeans average guess is 236 million bushels, up 16 million bushels from last month.

Wheat the average guess was 578 million bushels, up just fractionally from last month.

World Ending Stocks

For corn the average guess was 300.9 million metric tons, virtually unchanged from last month.

Soybeans at 102.2, unchanged from last month.

Wheat stocks at 267, down just a fraction from last month.

December Corn Chart

Corn had a new low posted today at $6.35, keeping the intermediate term down and the short term down as well.

Technical indicators are now oversold, no sign of a bottom yet.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had a good day with a nice rally challenging some previous highs this morning.

Technical indicators have been chopping back and forth in a neutral range, todays rally did allow them to hook to the upside.

Overhead resistance at $14.84 and chart support at $14.40.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices like corn made a new low for the move today to 8.21.

That comes close to the summer low posted in August at $8.11.

Technical indicators at zero and this market is likely in the process of finding a bottom.

Overhead resistance around the $9 level.


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