Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly lower today as the weather forecast is showing improving chances for rain this weekend and next week.

Grain Market News

U.S. Yield and Production 2023

U.S. Ending Stocks

South American 2023 Production

World Ending Stocks

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production surged to 1.036 million barrels per day last week, that’s the highest level we have seen back to the middle of December.

Production is getting close to the level needed to reach the current USDA projection.

Year to date is running behind USDA’s target, we are down 2.7% and the USDA projection is 1.5%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

We saw an increase in ethanol stocks for a second week in a row up to 22.9 million barrels.

That is still 2.9% below the year-ago level.

Gasoline use over the past week was about equal to a year ago.

4 of the last 5 weeks have shown U.S. gasoline consumption above the year ago level which is good news.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

The current weather is still stressful.

Yesterday’s high temperatures were in the mid-80s to low 90 across almost the entire belt.

The exception would be in the lower Great Lake states where some upper 70s and low 80s were reported.

U.S. Radar

This shows there is a front from Minnesota through Iowa and down through the southern portion of the eastern belt.

Cooler, dryer air is being seen in the far eastern belt but along this frontal boundary we are seeing a few showers.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows that frontal boundary draped across the southern and eastern belts over the next week.

That would allow for anywhere from .75-1.25 inches in most of the eastern belt and 1-2 inches in the southwestern areas.

While lesser totals are expected in the far north.

Outlook

The forecast looks mostly non-threatening.

Temperatures at or around average across most of the belt in the 6-10 day and then a little bit warmer in the 8-14 day.

Precipitation is near normal in the heart of the belt, little more to the south and the 8–14-day forecast is normal to slightly above normal.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices had an outside day down meaning we took out yesterday’s low.

We did have a clear breakout above the 40-day moving average.

The short term does look somewhat toppy and the technical indicators are hooking downwards.  

Weather is the primary driver, the weather forecast improved, which was enough to turn our chart downward.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices consolidated with an inside trading day.

Overall, the chart still looks pretty good as long as we can hold this chart support and technical indicators are still pointed upward.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat has been the most volatile of the grains.

Within the last 2 weeks sharp down, sharp up and so on.

Not only over the last 2 weeks but over the last 5-6 months.

Chart support is down in the 7.63 range with overhead resistance around 8.85.

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Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Corn and soybeans finished higher today as crop conditions declined more than expected, but there is rain in the forecast which kept prices under control.

Grain Market News

14-Day Observed Precipitation

The eastern corn belt down to the delta has received very little to no rain over the last 2 weeks.

We have seen scattered rain in the western corn belt with general rain in the plains.

Topsoil Moisture

Just 3 weeks ago there were really no issues in the eastern corn belt and very quickly we have gone to 72% short in Illinois, 688% short in Indiana, and in the 70s for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

The central belt like Minnesota has gone from 7% to 34%, Iowa 55% short, and Missouri 75% short.

Oklahoma and Colorado are now in pretty good shape.

U.S. Topsoil Moisture

That 57.7 is rounded to 58% which is the driest for any week during our growing season going back to 2013.

Corn and Soybean Topsoil Moisture

We are now the driest we have been in over almost 20 years at this time of year.

U.S. Corn Crop Condition

The combination of dry soil and hot temperatures over the last week allowed the corn crop conditions to drop by 5% to 64%.

U.S. Soybean Crop Condition

The initial rating came in at 62%, last year’s rating was 70%.

So, we are coming in below average for the soybean conditions.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Markets are being cautious because the forecast is adding rain.

In fact, .75-1 inch is now forecast over the next week in the eastern belt as well as the southern belt.

The northern belt is only expecting scattered rains.

Outlook

The 6-10 and 8-14 day has temperatures close to normal in the heart of the belt with a little warmer to the north and cooler to the south.

But then heat starts to come in in the 3^rd week of June.

Precipitation still shows dryer conditions to the north, wetter to the south, with near normal across the heart of the belt in the 6-10 day.

The 8-14-day show near normal conditions for most of the belt and wetter conditions out in the north and west.

Soil Moisture

If the forecast verifies the weather service is projecting improvement in the moisture.

If the weather service is correct the soil moisture would improve, which is keeping markets in check.

Dam Breach

Kakovka Dam

May Corn Chart

Corn was unable to make new highs today, so yesterday’s high of 5.48 is intact.

We did close higher for the day though which left the chart pointed upward.

Technical indicators are overbought.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices did not make a new high today but did close a bit higher, so the chart is pointed upward.

The technical indicators are pointed upward.

We are in an area of consolidation and have been unable to breakout above that.

The next area of overhead resistance would be near 12.50.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices exploded to the upside overnight last night posting a high of 8.47.

We did close nearly unchanged on the day though.

Wheat has very quickly rallied towards the middle of its sideways trading range.

Chart support is down at 7.63 with overhead resistance just shy of the $9 level.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed with corn and soybean finishing lower as midday weather maps added rain to the forecast for this weekend.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Back to last week, there has been very little to no rain in the delta and into the eastern belt, just a few scattered showers.

In the central and western belt there has been some scattered precipitation, areas of Iowa have seen nice showers as well as Minnesota, Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.

Unfortunately, much of the heart has not seen the soaking rain.

High Temperatures Friday

Friday temperatures for the entire belt were in the upper 80s to low 90s.

High Temperatures Saturday

Saturday had upper 80s and low and mid 90s across the entire belt.

High Temperatures Sunday

Yesterday’s temperatures were mid to upper 80s and low to mid 90s.

These temperatures have been above normal and around the 90-degree mark for about a week now.

U.S. Radar

Current conditions have some very dry air moving in from Canada impacting the eastern belt.

Not only are temperatures warm but dew points are low.

Scattered rainstorms could pop up in the central and western belt today.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

This did add some rain into the southern belt where maybe a half inch to .75 totals could be seen.

This is still below average, but it is an improvement which allowed the market to reverse from trading higher this morning to trading lower at today’s close.

Outlook

The heart of the belt looks normal to slightly below normal temperatures in the 6-10 days and normal or slightly below normal in the 8-14 day.

Precipitation shows a dry trend for the northern belt through the 14-day forecast but improved or wetter conditions are possible in the southern belt down into the delta.

Soil Moisture

That improved forecast can be seen when looking at soil moisture.

You can see there are a few areas where soil moisture could improve.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn exports came in at 46.49 million bushels, down a little bit from the last couple of weeks.

Over the last 4 weeks exports have been running close to the target.

Year to date after ¾ of the marketing year is behind us, corn exports are down 31.7% and USDA is projecting 28.2%.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean exports have been somewhat disappointing over the past 4 weeks running a little bit behind the pace needed to reach the current export forecast.

The good news is the year-to-date exports, after 3/4 of the marketing year is behind us, are down 2.5%, which is above the target of 6.6%.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices did make a new high for the move up to 5.48.

That has allowed corn prices to attack that level between 5.47-5.37.

This doesn’t mean the corn market can’t go higher, it just tells us from the chart perspective we need to see some bullish news.

If we don’t get bullish news, current chart support would be around 5.25-5.30 area.

Overhead resistance is around 5.60.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have turned the corner and are pointed upward. 

A new high was established today at 11.95 and the technical is pointed upward.

Overhead resistance in the next area is up in the 12.47 area.

We would need to see some friendly news over the next few weeks to test overhead.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat is pointed upward in the short term and the technical is as well.

Wheat closed higher today, and the first objective has now been achieved.

If wheat could get friendly news, then this market could continue to work higher, possibly testing the upper end of the range.

Wheat closed at 8.20 today.

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