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This map shows this week’s rainfall. This week we’ve gotten somewhat of a break from the hot, dry weather last week, we did get some ridge riding storms. We saw some rains in Ohio and the Ohio Valley off to the east coast. We saw one batch of ridge riding storms from southeast Minnesota into central and eastern Iowa. We also got a couple decent batches of ridge riding storms in portions of southern South Dakota and also in Nebraska and Kansas. Most areas that received these rains were very, very thankful for those rains. Unfortunately, we have large areas that received virtually no rain over the last week, and that adds to a dry week last week as well. The bottom line is that soil moisture for the U.S. corn and bean belt as a whole is still on the decline, and we’re starting to hear more and more reports of crop stress.

We have a little bit more rain falling in eastern Kansas and Missouri today, but after this batch of rain moves out, it looks like a much warmer, much drier pattern beginning tomorrow.

In addition to the heat in the plains, we start seeing more 90s in the Western Belt on Saturday, even mid 90s in the Western Belt by Sunday, and mid 90s all the way into the Eastern Belt by Monday. These types of temperatures are going to cause a lot of crop stress, especially for the areas that missed out on this week’s rains.

Heat advisories, heat watches, and heat warnings for the plains as well as much of the Western Belt. This is just evidence of the heat that’s coming in over the weekend and into early next week as well.

Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of rain in the forecast, there is a little bit of rain. Southern Minnesota could capture a small shot of rain. Ohio could, but overall, this is not a lot of rain for the U.S. Corn and Bean Belt when we’re in the heart of the summer and we’ve got heat moving in next week.

The 6 to 10 day outlook does offer some relief from the heat, closer to average temperatures in the 6 to 10, also in the 8 to 14 day, with the heat being pushed off to the south and to the west. Unfortunately, there’s not much moisture with that cooldown, and we could continue in a drier pattern. Overall, we think that the forecast is concerning if it does in fact verify.

The two-week soil moisture anomaly. In other words, what is expected for soil moisture change over the next two weeks now through august 7, and it shows almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt seeing significant declines in soil moisture. Keep in mind that’s on top of the soil moisture declines we’ve already seen over the past couple of weeks.

Our drought monitor is showing that, in addition to the drying that is expected. We’re already seeing dry conditions in northwest Iowa, South Dakota, Nebraska, as well as the southwestern plains, with additional dryness developing in the delta. It’s quite likely that the drought monitor continues to show expansion of the drought conditions over the next couple of weeks.

If we compare the drought monitor and the change versus last year, we see some small areas: northern and eastern Illinois, northern Illinois into Michigan, has seen some improvement versus a year ago, as well as portions of the plains on the Kansas-Nebraska border. But we also see large areas where drought has expanded over the last year and is significantly worse than it was a year ago. And again, drought appears like it will only get worse over the next week for sure, and possibly two weeks.

Taking a look at today’s September corn chart, mixed signals today. We did post a new high for the move overnight last night, then fell sharply early this morning, turned it around and closed about unchanged. Bottom line is that was mixed signals, but it leaves the chart in an uptrend. We’re trading above the 10, 20, and 40-day moving averages, and even though our technicals are overbought, there’s really no sign of topping action, not yet. And keep in mind something that we that we mention often, and that is weather will easily trump any chart or technical signals when the when you are in the heart of a growing season.

Taking a look at our September soybean chart, bean prices broke through contract highs at 1209 earlier this week, and this market is going up. A lot of people have asked how high. There’s really no way to know. The longer it stays warm and dry going forward, the higher potentially you could go. But right now, the trend is up, and even though we’re overbought from a technical perspective, this market could still work higher if the weather continues to remain threatening.

Turning to our Kansas City September wheat chart, wheat prices also posted a new high and then turned around and absolutely collapsed earlier today on news that Russia and Ukraine. Maybe coming to some peace talks, but later a Ukrainian official said that that was not correct. That no one was talking, and that allowed the wheat market to bounce back. But it was a wild day in wheat with a 50 cent trading range. Overall, the chart for wheat is still pointed upward, but volatility certainly high at this point in the wheat market as well, and today’s lower close was enough to turn the technicals. But news items early next week are going to be the driver, and we’ll be watching U.S. weather to see if it becomes supportive for corn and beans.