Closing Market Comments March 20, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn is seeing an increase in the number of shipments being made, coming in at 46.796mmt that were shipped out.

Since the start of the crop year in September we are down 33%.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

26.3 million bushels of soybean’s were shipped out.

USDA overall believes we will be down 6.6% compared to a year ago.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat came in at 13.746 bushels which is below the 17.3 million bushels that’s needed to reach the USDA target.

USDA believes we will be down 3.1% compared to a year ago.

Argentina’s Soybean Crush

May Corn Chart

Corn found support in the 6.06 area.

Corn did trade lower today all the way down to support at 6.25.

We did close 8 cents off of our lows today.

Overhead resistance at 6.35.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans opened right ta the support level of 14.73.

The market did then trade lower finding support and then reversed trading back higher.

We did close 22 cents off of our lows.

Major chart support at 14.72.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat did trade down finding support on the 20-day moving average at 8.20.

We have resistance right above us at the 40-day average of 8.37.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments March 17, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today with pressure on soybeans and corn and wheat having a stronger day.

Grain Market News

Argentina’s Soybean Production

If we do come in at the 25mmt, going back through 2002 we haven’t had production that low.

The last time we had production that low was in 1999.

Grain Market News

May Corn Chart

Corns high of the day was at 6.38.

Chart support is at 6.24.

The charts look good, and we think corn is in the process of finding a bottom.

Overhead resistance at 6.44.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans traded down to 14.70 today.

Chart support at 14.54 area and overhead resistance coming in at 14.90.

We are still looking for the soybean market to find some support.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat traded through the 20-day moving average today.

We have chart support at 8.27 and then $8 and overhead resistance at 8.46.

This market does have a chance for additional strengths.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments March 16, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly higher today as strong exports and a stabilizing of the outside markets allowed some buying.

Grain Market News

Corn: Commodity Funds

2014-2020 was a good example of where we had surplus supplies of corn and the funds were often holding a short position.

In times of a shortage and high prices like 2010-2012 the funds tend to hold along position which has been the case the last 2.5 years.

Soybean: Commodity Funds

Soybean funds are long 129,000 contracts.

Wheat: Commodity Funds

Wheat funds have been short in wheat since June of 2022.

In fact, the most recent data shows the funds were short 91,000 contracts in the Chicago wheat market.

That’s the largest short position going back to 2017.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Last week’s corn export sales came in at 1.4mmt with no sale to China.

This week USDA’s weekly total was 1.23mmt with just 73 thousand tons to China, only 6%.

The majority, almost all of the sales in the last week, have been to other destinations not China.

Soybean: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean export sale today came in at 665 thousand tons, which is a dramatic improvement from last week.

We only need 220 thousand per week to reach the USDA forecast.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat sales also improved up to 337 thousand tons which is right at the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices making a new high for this move today.

The chart still looks very good, technical indicators look good as well.

We believe this market may be eyeing overheard resistance around 6.36-6.48 level.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have been trending lower, there has been a trend of buying corn and selling beans lately.

Soybean prices have gotten very close to the chart support that has been in place back to December.

Today’s close at 14.91 was slightly higher on the day, therefore today’s action was a very small reversal to the upside.

Overhead resistance is at the low $15 range.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices look good from a chart perspective although they were not able to make a new high today.

Overhead resistance is at the 20-day average and with some friendly news the next objective would be the 40-day moving average at 8.46.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments March 15, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, not a bad day of performance considering the sharp losses in the outside markets.

Grain Market News

Crude Oil

When crude oil was down 5.50 per barrel this morning it hit 65.65 per barrel breaking out of the sideways range from November.

Weekly Ethanol Production

This shows 1.014 million barrels per day produced last week.

That’s very close to the level needed for the USDA forecast.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks of fuel ethanol did increase significantly up to 26.383 million barrels.

That’s a new record for this week of the year and slightly above the year ago.

NOPA Soybean Crush

Soybean crush at 165.4 is up from last year and near the record for February.

Our year-to-date crush is a little bit below last year while USDA is protecting for it to be a little above at the end.

Grain Market News

Black Sea Corn Shipments

The timeframe shows about 11.5mmt of corn shipped out of Ukraine to all destinations.

It also shows China shipped 3.5mmt or 30% of the Ukrainian shipments, about 50% went to the European Union, and 20% to all other countries.

3-Day Snowfall Forecast

In areas where it is dry enough planting is beginning in the delta region and some soybeans in extreme southern Illinois.

For most farmers the planting season is just beginning in the delta and as we approach April it will begin in the southern belt, mid-April the central belt, and then the end of April in the northern belt.

Unfortunately for the northern and northwestern belt more snow is projected in area that don’t need it.

The amount of snow on the ground and the fact that the forecast continues to call for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation needs to be monitored.

NWS Active Alerts

Storm watch primarily in the northern plains and northwestern belt where many areas have snow on the ground still.

S.A. 30-Day Precipitation vs Normal

We mentioned northwestern Brazil is about completed with planting, that state of Mato Grosso is the largest corn and soybean producing state.

Safrinha corn planting is behind in central Brazil where rainfall is significantly above normal.

Extreme southern Brazil is too dry.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices look good from the cart perspective.

From a chart perspective corn may be interested in attacking some lows from December at 6.36 and multiple lows at 6.48 from January.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean price dropped to new lows today down to 14.80 on the May chart.

The bad news is the market is still in a short term downtrend within the overall sideways range.

Good news could be we are getting close to chart support and technical indicators are close to oversold.

No sign of bottoming action from the chart or technical.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have the trend up making new highs for the move.

The wheat market may be interested in approaching an area where ethe 20 and 40 day moving average is.

Questions or Comments