U.S. Ending Stocks

This data is for the estimate for ending stocks, we are not going to do production because USDA does not adjust production estimates in the December report.

Corn stock estimates is 1.241 billion bushels, up about 60 million from last month’s report.

Soybeans average guess is 236 million bushels, up 16 million bushels from last month.

Wheat the average guess was 578 million bushels, up just fractionally from last month.

Closing Market Comments December 6, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as an overall choppy, back and forth pattern continues.

Grain Market News

Unleaded Gasoline

Gasoline futures down to $2.12 per gallon, that’s less than half of where our gasoline was trading back in June.

Ethanol Swaps- January

Ethanol swaps is where most of the fuel ethanol is traded.

You can see ethanol prices have been dropping as well.

Down from $2.33 a gallon just over a week ago to $2.11 per gallon.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Week 1 has most of Brazil in good shape except for extreme southern Brazil.

The second week shows continued good rains in the north but we could see some dryness in the south.

Argentina’s forecast has turned dryer over the last 24 hours.

There is still some rain in northern Argentina in the first week, but the second week has turned dryer.

Observed Surface High Temps

Argentina had temperatures almost everywhere in the 100s yesterday while Brazil is in the 80s.

Tuesday’s High Temperatures

Today’s forecast high for Tuesday shows more of the same.

90s and a lot of 100s across Argentina and mostly 70-80s in Brazil.

China Covid Chart

Their covid cases have ramped up challenging the record high number of covid cases from spring.

The good news is when we look at weekly deaths, even though cases are up, deaths are not rising.

If we continue to see a low death rate, that may allow them to lighten up or ease the covid restrictions.

U.S. Ending Stocks

This data is for the estimate for ending stocks, we are not going to do production because USDA does not adjust production estimates in the December report.

Corn stock estimates is 1.241 billion bushels, up about 60 million from last month’s report.

Soybeans average guess is 236 million bushels, up 16 million bushels from last month.

Wheat the average guess was 578 million bushels, up just fractionally from last month.

World Ending Stocks

For corn the average guess was 300.9 million metric tons, virtually unchanged from last month.

Soybeans at 102.2, unchanged from last month.

Wheat stocks at 267, down just a fraction from last month.

December Corn Chart

Corn had a new low posted today at $6.35, keeping the intermediate term down and the short term down as well.

Technical indicators are now oversold, no sign of a bottom yet.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had a good day with a nice rally challenging some previous highs this morning.

Technical indicators have been chopping back and forth in a neutral range, todays rally did allow them to hook to the upside.

Overhead resistance at $14.84 and chart support at $14.40.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices like corn made a new low for the move today to 8.21.

That comes close to the summer low posted in August at $8.11.

Technical indicators at zero and this market is likely in the process of finding a bottom.

Overhead resistance around the $9 level.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments December 5, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished lower across the board today, outside markets were very negative.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Argentina continues to have below normal precipitation, and some extends northward and eastward into portions of Uruguay, Paraguay, and southern Brazil.

The second week does show some better rains for Argentina but there could still be some pockets in other areas of Paraguay, Uruguay, and extreme southern Brazil.

The bulk of Brazil looks to have good rains in week 1 and week 2.

Temperature Anomaly

Temperatures mostly favorable in Brazil, some areas to the north a little cooler and some in the south little warmer.

In Argentina where there is dry conditions, temperatures look to be above to much above normal over the next week.

Observed Surface High Temps

Argentina’s growing region has temperatures yesterday in the mid and upper 90s across almost all of Argentina.

Those temperatures may be even hotter this week with 100s very possible.

Monday’s High Temperatures

You can see if we highlight Argentina’s growing region, mid upper 90s and a lot of 100s are likely today.

We could see on and off 90s and low 100s right through the end of the week.

NOAA


Anything negative is below average or cooler than normal ocean water and anything a plus number, above zero would be warmer than normal.

Below normal is considered La Nina and above normal is El Nino.

The national weather service is predicting that La Nina conditions are peaking now and by the time we get into March or early April, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial pacific ocean could be back to normal.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections did rally nicely up to 20.6 million bushels.

That’s good news but keep in mind we need 50 million bushels per week to reach the USDA forecast.

 Our year-to-date exports are down 32.7%, USDA is projecting exports to be down 13%.

Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean inspections came in at 63 million bushels, that’s down from over 80 million bushels last week and also the lowest number over the last 8 weeks.

It is above the level needed.

Our first 3 months of our marketing year, soybeans are 10.9% below the year ago level, USDA is projecting exports to be down 5%.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat at 12.296 bushels, that’s the best number in about 8 weeks.

But still just a little shy of the USDA number needed.

Our year-to-date inspections after half the year is behind us is down 2.2% with USDA projecting it to be down 3.1%.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices very disappointing late last week and the market has been trying to creep upward through November and last week markets fell.

Technical indicators are getting close to the oversold range.

Off the highs posted in October the market is in a downtrend.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices quite different off the October lows they have been in an uptrend.

We did fall late last week but soybean prices have been holding in pretty well.

If the red line holds, that’s good news.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices down sharply today making a new low for the move.

Chart and technical selling certainly a feature today.

We are getting very close to the lows we seen last summer in the 8.10-8.40 range.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments December 2, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, beans did bounce a little bit after yesterday, but corn and wheat saw significant losses.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

U.S. Prevented Plant Acres

Beginning with an assumption that the past 2 years that virtually all available acres in the U.S. got planted given the very profitable prices.

But one variable is prevented plant acres, and this past spring the northwestern belt and northern plains had extremely wet conditions.

Our prevented plant acres were up 4 million this past year due to a wet spring.

Looking at the balance sheet we will assume that prevented plant is back down to 1.3 million based on dry conditions.

U.S. Corn Yield

Trend line yield for corn next year will be at 183, 183 bushels per acre for a national average.

That may seem high but keep in mind that these years yield of 172.3 was way below average.

U.S. Soybean Yield

 Soybeans also had a below trend yield of 50.2, next years trend line yield is 52 bushels per acre.

Corn S&D

USDA is projecting ending stocks in corn next summer at 1.182 billion bushels.

If we have a yield of trend line at 183, that will give us production of 15.472 billion bushels.

Using demand figures at 14.175, our ending stocks would increase to 2.5 billion.

Soybean S&D

A small increase in acres at just a little over a half a million.

If we assume that demand is the same as this year ay 4.4 billion that would leave us with ending stocks of 356.

Wheat S&D

Wheat had a small increase in acres, trend line yield of 51 bushels per acre.

Argentina is having a very disappointing wheat year and we would not be surprised to see exports increase next year to a much more normal level around 900 million bushels.

Grain Market News

South American Precipitation Forecast

Week 1 shows the dryer weather in Argentina, portions of Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

Today’s forecast has added rain for Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil.

This rain does not look heavy but anywhere from 15-35 millimeters.

December Corn Chart

Prices dropped sharply today due to a favorable forecast in Argentina and a lack of any bullish stories.

Corn took out the lows from 3 weeks ago at 6.53 and then additional chart selling pushed us to 6.45.

This has turned the technical downward as well.

The chart and technical signals certainly look bearish today.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices got hit hard, extremely hard yesterday pushing us down to initial chart support.

Today the markets were able to bounce a little bit, but the near-term chart has turned downwards which turned the technical downward.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices down sharply again today, this market is in a consistent downtrend.

The market broke to new lows today and that triggered additional sales stops.

Technical indicators are near zero and no place to be making sales.

Questions or Comments