Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today with outside markets providing support as the debt ceiling was approved by the house and the weather looks threatening for the belt.

Grain Market News

April 2023 Rainfall

April was extremely dry in much of the corn and bean belt.

Drought conditions were extreme in portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

We also saw dryness developing in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri.

May 2023 Rainfall

In May we have seen significant pattern changes where moisture was much more plentiful in the western plains while dryness impacted the heart of the belt.

Keep in mind anything red or darker red are areas that saw less than 25% of normal through the month of May.

April-May 2023 Rainfall

Combine April and May together you can see the bulk of the belt has been much below normal for the last 60 days.

Anything in the darker tan is less than 50% of normal.

High Temperatures

In addition to the dryness temperatures continue to be around 90 degrees.

Virtually the entire belt was in the upper 80s to low 90s yesterday.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Much of the eastern belt down into the delta has received very little or no precipitation over the last week.

We did see some scattered rains in the western belt over the last week.

U.S. Radar

We are getting some scattered showers now, but humidity levels have increased with dew points into the 60s.

None of this is organized so if you are underneath one of those showers, you are very fortunate.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Looking ahead the forecast shows the eastern belt continuing to have little to no rain also down into the delta.

The western belt could see some better rains but below normal.

The best rains out in the southern and southwestern plains and up into Montana.

Outlook

The 6–10-day temperatures continue to be above normal temperatures for most of the belt and below normal precipitation.

The cooler temperatures and better rainfall look to be further to the south and west.

There could be some improvement in the 8–14-day forecast.

Soil Moisture

If the forecast is correct, we would see further soil moisture loss and moisture improvement out in the plains into the mountain state.  

Official 30-Day Forecast

The forecast for the month of June that came out from the NWS shows above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for most of the belt.

That’s a very similar pattern to what we have seen in the last few weeks.

If this is correct, we will certainly start to see crop stress.

Drought Outlook

May Corn Chart

Corn prices have rallied nicely with today’s high at 5.36 which matched the highs from late last week.

This does leave the chart pointed upward with technical indicators pointed up as well.

There is no sign of topping action following today’s rally.

As of today, the weather does still look threatening.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices after falling sharply Tuesday and Wednesday have rebounded.

Today’s high at 11.75 is 45 cents above yesterday morning’s low.

On the soybean chart it has not been enough to break through the sharp downtrend line.

Today’s high tested the 10-day moving average and the downtrend line.

If we would like to see this market move high toward overhead resistance at 12.47 would be to break through the 10-day moving average.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also rebounded off yesterday morning’s low at 7.63 with today’s high at 8.12.

At this time the chart and technical both look good.

We would not be surprised to see the next move pushing into the middle of our trading range.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today bouncing back from sharply lower prices earlier this morning.

Grain Market News

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

We can see the improvement on this chart from the lows in late April.

The crop is still rated relatively low, well below average.

The 34% good to excellent is a little above last year.

Corn Crop Conditions

Corn came in at 69% good to excellent.

That is slightly below last year’s rating at 73% but very close to the 20-year average.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Mostly upper 80s and low 90s across the entire U.S. corn and bean belt.

These temperatures are not extreme, but they are much warmer than average for this time of year.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

We have gotten a little bit of rain in southwestern Minnesota, west of the Des Moines area, and southwest of Kansas City.

Much of the Delta, eastern belt area, into central Iowa has seen no rain.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

Some very nice rains in southwest Minnesota and somewhat in the west of Des Moines area.

Much of northern Missouri, eastern half of Iowa, much of Illinois, and Wisconsin has seen very little to no rain.  

Topsoil Moisture

Topsoil Moisture

U.S. Radar

There are a few showers in Missouri, Illinois, and northeast South Dakota. None of these are widespread.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows the eastern belt expecting little to no rain over the next week.

With temperatures near 90 expected through Monday we are going to see additional rapid loss of soil moisture.

Current conditions are much dryer than normal for this time of year.

Outlook

Our 6–10-day forecast shows the above normal temperature and below normal precipitation.

Again, for about 60% of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

The best rains and cooler temperatures out in the far southwestern area, not for the heart of the belt

May Corn Chart

Corn prices were sharply lower this morning, but we did close in the upper half of the range.

We were still lower on the day, but we were able to bounce back nicely.

It’s going to be the weather that will determine if this market tries to retest the 5.37 or if we continue to push lower.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also made a new low this morning down to $11.30.

Beans did turn around and bounced, closing at 11.46 so we did close 16 cents off the daily low.

It was still a lower day with the chart still pointed downward.

Technical indicators are still oversold.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile, going up, down, up, down.

The fact that wheat was able to do a reversal and close higher today was enough to hook the technical.

Wheat closed at 7.91.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today as the trade is adding some risk premium based on a warm, dry forecast for next week.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the last week we have virtually seen no precipitation in the belt.

The best rains have been falling in the southwestern plains into Texas and Oklahoma.

In the heart of the belt much of Nebraska, almost all of Iowa, much of Illinois, northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, and most of South Dakota has seen no rain except for a few isolated areas.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar is virtually free of precipitation across most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

There is some rain in portions of western Nebraska and down into Texas and Oklahoma.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Most of the U.S. belt is expecting little to no precipitation.

The light green is less than 1/10^th of an inch.

High Temperatures

In addition, we are going to see temperatures start to ramp up.

The highs next week on Tuesday are mostly in the mid to upper 80s in the heart of the belt.

Those temperatures are not extreme but with a lack of moisture and dirt still showing, which means soil moisture evaporation will be more rapid than it would be later in the summer.

Outlook

The 6-10 day forecast still shows above normal temperatures for most of the belt and the 8-14 day does show some moderation.

The precipitation pattern looks like what has been forecasted all week long.

April 2023 Precipitation

The dryness was considered almost ideal last week for getting planting, field work, spraying, fertilizer, and more done.

 This week has been mostly dry across the belt but now that planting is wrapped up farmers are looking for some rain.

The April precipitation across the entire belt was below normal.

30-Day Precipitation

We have seen a continuation of below normal precipitation for most of the belt.

To get crops planted early you do need to have dryer than normal conditions.

The dryer weather in April to May was considered favorable but now that we are approaching June concerns are increasing for soil moisture.

Soil Moisture

Grain Market News

May Corn Chart

Corn markets are in a steep uptrend off the lows posted last week.

Today’s high was 59 cents above last Thursdays low.

There is no sign of topping action yet but if this market can push towards our downtrend line, technical indicators could be overbought by next week.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices saw a nice rally today with an outside day up.

The fact that we had an outside day up and closed above yesterday’s high is a good signal from a short-term chart perspective, this also turned the technical up.

If we can get just a little bit of friendly news the next target would be 13.83.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile up and down.

We are well below last week’s highs and well above the lows from early May, in fact we are close to the middle of our long-term trading range.

The rain in the plains has certainly put a damper on the wheat market, but European wheat was up sharply today.

Questions or Comments