U.S. Corn Yield Estimates

Last year 2021 in the black dash line shows where USDA was estimating the yield, it dropped the yield in August but then bounced it back up and ended up at 177 at year end.

Ag resource by utilizing crop condition indexes which combine good, excellent, fair, poor, and very poor.

You can see that last year their condition, which is shown in the black line with white dots, very well tracked the USDA and final yield.

Based on that data, USDA yield this year is at 177 and the current crop condition index would put the crop at 175.3.

Ag resource believe that its going to be difficult for this year’s yield to reach last years record of 177.

Keep in mind if condition ratings fall next as we expect their yield model will fall as well.  

Soybean Planting Progress

Soybean progress came in at 12% complete, near record lows. Next week we should see that pick up significantly, maybe pushing up close to 30% levels in next weeks reports.

It’s still going to be a slow start to the planting season, but like corn we will start to have much better percentages.

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

We are at 22% planted, that is near record lows. Next week we should see a nice improvement, we are estimating somewhere between 20-25% may get planted this week depending on how much rain falls between now and this weekend.

That could put us up into the upper 40s for percent planted.

Now that is still going to be an extremely slow start and we will still be 2 weeks behind average.

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

When we run the cumulative, we are now 14% planted, that is well below last year when we were 42% planted at this time.

Keep in mind in 2019 we remained extremely slow, and we planted quite a bit of crop from June 1st and beyond.

Next week we could plant somewhere between another 7-10 % which could push us in the low to mid 20s, but that is still an extremely slow pace for planting in the US.

Weekly Corn Planting Progress

A week ago, we saw planting go from 4% to 7%, that was a 3% advance and this week we went from 7 to 14%.

But normally this week, the first week of May, we would have planted 19%. So, you can see we are running well behind the average.

Next week’s planting progress, even if we planted between 7-10%, that’s still going to be well below what would be average for this time of year.

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

This shows planting progress over the last 17 years, the black line is the long-term average.

Keep in mind the USDA planting progress is only the 5-year average, so much shorter term.

Long term average we should be about 10% planted, last year we were about 8% planted and this year only at 4% planted.

So, we are certainly getting off to a slow start and based off of current conditions we are not likely to catch up in the next few weeks.

 Last year we planted 29% of the crop from late April into the early portion of May and then another 21% of the crop by May 10th. So, half the US crop last year was planted in 2 weeks.