Closing Market Comments August 4, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher to sharply higher today as weather is starting to look more threatening next week combined with rumors of China sniffing around for U.S. beans.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

ON Tuesday we seen 100s up into western Iowa, southeast South Dakota and the heat did back off yesterday with the 100s in Missouri, Kansas, and then south into Texas.

Texas, Oklahoma, southern Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas has been brutalized by heat and dryness this summer.

The heart of the belt saw temperatures mostly in the upper 80s and low 90s with a few mid and upper 90s in eastern Nebraska yesterday.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Heat and dryness are expected to rebuild next week in the western belt and into the plains.

The areas that are highlighted have not seen much rain over the last week and those are the areas that will very quickly see crop stress develop if the forecast is correct calling for hotter, dryer weather.

Iowa and Nebraska are somewhat the epicenter of this latest weather threat.

Current Conditions

Midday today was mostly in the upper 70s and low to mid 80s, we will see mostly 80s and a few low 90s today but not excessively hot as front pushed through overnight.

The frontal boundary is through the eastern belt down into the delta leaving most of the central, western, and northwestern belt dry in today’s radar.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast does call for some rains from eastern South Dakota, northern Iowa, Minnesota into Wisconsin.

Those rains would be very beneficial for South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northern Iowa if they do happen.

Unfortunately, central southern Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, into Missouri, and portions of Illinois look to see very little rain over the next week.

Again, temperatures expected to heat up.

Temperature Outlook

The 6–10-day shows that heat in the central and western belt with the most significant heat in the northern Plains.

The heat hangs on into the second week of the forecast going through August 17th, again with the western belt and the plains seeing the most significant heat.

Today’s forecast is also dryer for almost the entire US corn and bean belt all the way out past the middle of August and that helps generate some of the buying and sharply higher prices today.

Grain Market News

Cropland

One week from tomorrow we will get USDA’s August crop report and it appears that analysts will be looking for a slightly lower yield.

One of the items we can look at is the vegetation health index and this compared to a year ago.

It shows that most of the western belt into the plains is well below the year ago with their vegetation health and the eastern belt also lower than last year when it comes to vegetation health.

The areas that have improved are in the northern plains which suffered severe drought last year but is much better this year.

Also, some isolated areas in Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are looking better currently.

This indicates that this year’s yield will struggle to match last year levels.  

World Soybean Basis

Its worth noting that following Brazil’s harvest, February through June, they were typically equal to or cheaper than U.S. soybeans.

But the basis in Brazil has been rallying sharply and has exploded to the upside over the past couple of weeks.

This leaves Brazilian basis well above the U.S. basis, U.S. now the cheapest in the world and this should result in much better export sales now through the fall and Winter and likely into the early 2023.

U.S. export sales have been very slow over the past couple of months, but we expect them to ramp up significantly moving forward.

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Export sales you can see outside of 1 week in mid-June that was very good, corn sales have been disappointing May-July.

That’s due to Brazil being extremely cheap and most of the world business going to South America in either Brazil or Argentina.

As we mentioned Brazil’s bean basis exploded to the upside and Argentina exploding to the upside over the last 3-4 weeks.

This should cause our export sales to increase significantly.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybean export sales net negative 11 so basically a zero.

That’s been the case with zero or a net negative in the last 5 of the past 6 weeks.

U.S. export sale of soybeans should ramp up dramatically beginning in August, in fact there was rumors of China sniffing around in the marketplace today.

We expect big sales to be announced now through early 2023.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices up sharply today, the extremely choppy trade that we have experienced over the last couple of months is continuing.

Up sharp last week, down sharp Monday and Tuesday, and now rallying sharply again.

After falling back earlier this week the corn market came back to test the 10- and 20-day moving average and we bounced off nicely.

That would put 6.23-6.36 as the next target if we can get friendly weather or bullish weather news in tomorrow’s trade.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also extremely volatile over the past couple of months with big moves up and big moves down.

Last week we were up sharply, early this week down sharply, and now a big move to the upside nearly a 50 cent higher move today.

That has the charts looking better after we found support at the 10- and 20-day moving averages.

If we get friendly news tomorrow or into next week the upside target on bullish weather would be in the 14.38-14.89 range.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices still in a consolidating mode near the lower end of the range that has been in place for about the last month and a half.

The good news is the market continues to find support at the 8.14 -8.24 level.

The bad news is we have been unable to break out to the upside in a big way.

We are trading right at the 10- and 20-day moving averages an if we get some friendly news and if we break above the resistance levels it may signal that next move towards the $10 level.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments August 2, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished lower for the second day in a row on the potential for increasing tension between China and the US and a forecast that isn’t ideal but less threatening.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Condition

The corn crops held steady at 61% good to excellent, that is just slightly below the 20-year average and 1% below last year.

The US corn crop condition would hint at a yield slightly below trend.

Corn Change in G/E

We saw 8 states that improved, mostly in the eastern corn belt and in the delta.

We saw 2 states held steady and 8 states decline including Ohio going down by 4% points.

States decline offsets states that have improved leaving the US rating at 61% good to excellent unchanged from last week.

Soybean Crop Conditions

Soybean conditions improved for the first time this growing season 1% to 60% good to excellent which is the same as last year and at or just a fraction below the long-term average.

Next week crop conditions are likely to decline by maybe 1-2% and that could pull us below both last year and the 20-year average.

At this time the US soybean crop condition rating is hinting at a yield that would be slightly below trend.

Soybeans Change in G/E

Soybeans had 11 states improve while only 5 states declined including Iowa down by 2 percent which offset the Illinois improvement of 7%.

The US rating improved by 1% going up to 60% good to excellent.

High Temperatures

Yesterday’s high temperatures saw temperatures in the upper 90s and the 100s from the Mexican border up to the Canadian border.

But the bulk of the heat was in the plains and therefore avoided the heart of the US corn and bean belt.

The eastern belt mostly in the mid and upper 80s, while the central belt was in the mid-80s to mid-90s.

Bottom line is temperatures are somewhat favorable in the eastern belt, lightly stressful in the central belt, and extremely stressful out in the plains.

24-Hour Observed Precipitation

The past 24 hours we had one stripe of rain that basically went through Illinois, not the entire state, but went through the central portion.

In fact, down in portions of the east central Illinois are there was an area that had 8-12 inches of rain over the last 24 hours.

That is too much rain in any area, but there were areas that had 1-3 inches and that was beneficial.

Unfortunately for the central belt into the northwestern belt into the plains only a few scattered showers.

Current Conditions

Temperatures were already in the 90s in the western half of the belt with 80s mostly in the eastern belt, and we should see a lot of upper 90s even 100s in the western belt and certainly in the plains where crop stress is going to increase

The eastern belt should remain mostly favorable.

The rains in Illinois are continuing, most of those rains have been drifting almost south, so the areas that had rain are getting more while areas that missed out continue to miss out.

Topsoil Moisture

Topsoil moisture as of July 31st did have some improvements like Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and down in the delta.

The central belt had some slight drying like Minnesota, Iowa, and then in the western belt North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska all seen drying.

Soil moisture did improve slightly from 43% short to very short last week to 38% short to very short this week.

U.S. Topsoil Moisture

As of July 31st, we are at 38% short to very short which is a slight improvement from last week at 43%.

This compares to 39% last year, so similar, and just slightly above the long-term average.

We do believe if the forecast is correct soil moisture is probably going to be in that 44-46% short to very short and that will be like what we saw last year as well.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The eastern belt could get anywhere from 3 quarters to an inch and a half the next 7 days, the central portions could get a quarter to 3 quarters, but very little or no rain is expected in the plains.

The plains will see significant stress developing or increase and then stress could continue in portions of Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri.  

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 day forecast continues to call for above normal temperatures and that continues in the 8-14 day.

It may not be as hot as the previous forecast but still looks to be above normal.

Along with that we have below normal precipitation for the western half of the belt in the 6-10 day and most of the belt in the 8-14 day.

Below normal precipitation does not mean 0 precipitation, but it means on average we will see less than average rainfall.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices have been very choppy, going back to the month of June we fell sharply, rallied, fell sharply, rallied, fell again, rallied last week into Friday, and now we are setting back again.

Bottom line is we are carving out a range between 5.60-6.60.

Friday’s disappointing close with lower prices yesterday and today does have the chart turning downward in the short term. Technical indicators have turned lower as well.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have been choppy going down and up multiple times.

The chart has turned lower over the last couple days which has hooked the technical indicators lower as well.

Soybeans had broken through our 10-20 day moving average and now we have corrected down to that level which should be a good area of support.

We will see if over the next couple days if the level around the $13.50-13.80 can continue to hold.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat looks to be trying to form some bottoming action, we believe that is going to continue but remain choppy in the short term.

We do believe that wheat prices globally are under valued and that this market as we move through the summer and into fall is likely to retest the $10 level at a bare minimum.

Even though wheat prices are not exploding, this is no place to be making sales.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments August 1, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished sharply lower today as the weather forecast is less threatening than it was Friday combined with lower outside markets, and the 1st cargo of grain shipped out of the Ukrainian port.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The past 7 days we have seen significant rainfall down to the southern portions of the US corn and bean while very little rain fell in the central and northern portions of the belt.

We believe that declines in some areas around the northern and northwestern belt could offset the improvement in crop conditions down south, so therefore we would not be surprised to see conditions about steady.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

The past 2 weeks we can see that again the southern belt has received good rain but there is also an area from central Indiana and central Illinois up through the western and northwestern belt that has received minor amounts of rain.

This is where crop conditions could decline the most quickly if we don’t see better rains soon.

30-Day Precipitation % of Normal

From southern Illinois, southern Indiana, portions of the Ohio Valley combined with a stripe of rain from southeast Minnesota northeast Iowa through northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and into Ohio that has seen good rains.

Central Nebraska had a pocket of rain, central South Dakota had a pocket of rain, but we also have seen a number of pockets where rainfall has been much below normal.

Temperature Anomaly

Mot of the belt has been above normal with tremendous heat own to the south.

July saw above normal temperature and mixed precipitation.

High Temperatures

Yesterday’s high temperatures show 80s in most of the central and eastern belt with 90s in the plains even 100s in the southern plains.

Up in the Pacific northwest where white wheat and Durum wheat are significant temperatures are very hot from 100-108 across much of that region.

Current Conditions

Our current conditions show temperatures mostly in the 80s as of 1:30 with 90s in the western belt and into the plain states.

Very little precipitation is being shown right now but we did have a little rain from eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast calls for decent rain with 3/4 to an inch and a half in much of the eastern belt and a quarter to three quarters in portions of Iowa and the central belt.

The plains from the Canadian border to the Mexican border look to be mostly hot and dry over the next week.

Temperature Outlook

Our 6–10-day forecast continues to look like above normal temperatures and that continues in the 8-14 day for the entire central US corn and bean belt.

Most of the belt looks to have below normal precipitation in the 6-10 day and the 8-14 day.

Temperature Anomaly

If the forecast is correct temperatures will be well above normal in the plains, and slightly above normal in the eastern belt over the next 7 days.

Soil Moisture Anomaly

From today through August 15th, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, into the Ohio Valley could see an improvement in their soil moisture while most of the belt sees soil moisture on the decline.

Grain Market News

September Corn Chart

Corn prices after rallying sharply, down sharply today but the good news is we closed at 6.09 and that was fairly close to the middle of today’s range.

The market currently has overhead resistance at 7.36 with initial chart support at the 5.80-5.85 level.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also rallied every day last week, in fact they rallied 6 days in a row.

Today we saw a sharp correction, but we are still trading above $14 as we closed at 14.06 today.

We currently have overhead resistance at $14.89 and chart support in a gap area around the $13.50 level.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices are shooing some bottoming action, it looks like we could be developing a U shape bottom in the wheat market, and this would be logical given the fact we are wrapping up the winter harvest.

Wheat has support at last weeks low at 8.14, overhead resistance around the $10 level, and today we closed at 8.66.

Recommendations

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments July 29, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets had an inside day of rest today.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Wheat Quality Council

Soybean Areas in Drought

The market is being driven by what’s going on with the weather.

About 26% of the soybean production is in an area that is experiencing drought.

% Of Soybeans Located in Drought

Iowa has about 23% in drought and about 3% in the extreme drought, Nebraska has 58% in drought and 7% in extreme drought, Kansas has 46% in drought, Arkansas about 82% in drought, and Illinois about 8%.

% Of US Soybeans in Drought

Compared to other years we see that 26% is in a drought compared to 31% last year.

Extreme drought areas this year is at 10% compared to 20% last year.

Hay Areas in Drought

 About 47% of the hay acreage is within the current drought areas.

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 day is still showing we have a high probability of above normal temperatures across the whole belt and dry conditions.

The 8-14 day we still have a high probability of above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

There will be some showers picking up later this afternoon down towards Kansas and Oklahoma.

This will likely cause the yield to take a few steps back.

Hazards Outlook

We are keeping a close eye on part of Nebraska, Minnesota, and over a large part of Iowa where we see a rapid onset of drought risks.

This will definitely impact the corn crop but also the soybeans.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices traded up to 6.36, that trade happened between 8.30-8.45 this morning. About 10.45 the market pulled back down and made a run back up to 6.31.

We are getting very close to crossing the 10 and 20 days, this would be a positive note on the technical.

Major support would be at the 5.98 level.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean opened right at the 40-day moving average and the traded up to 14.89.

We would find major support at the 14.38 area, which would be a 50% retracement of this whole move.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat traded through the downtrend lien and traded up to 9.15.

The market then traded about sideways and then the market started pulling back down.

Our support would come in at the 8.70 area and resistance at 8.82.

Recommendations

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments July 28, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets had a nice, strong day.

Grain Market News

Corn Export Sales

Corn export sales were at 150 thousand metric tons, down a little from what was needed at 272.

Looking down the road because of our export sales and our shipment pace we may need to reduce the amount of exports for corn down the road.

Soybean Export Sales

Soybean export sales had a net 59 thousand metric ton cancellation.

Currently we have sold more than what we needed to but the shipment pace on soybeans is a concern.

Drought Monitor Class Change

Areas in grey there was no change compared to one week ago, areas in yellow means they had drought intensify and get worse, and the green areas had drought improve.  

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 day is still looking at above normal temperatures across most of the corn production areas with below normal precipitation.

As we move out to the 8-14 day, we also can see that is still hanging around.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The ridge has moved south over time, this is bringing some heavy and even flooding rains.

This rain may be coming in to late to help some of the crops that have been stressed.

Seasonal Drought Outlook

You’ll notice in some of these areas that have missed out on rain that these areas are going to have warmer and dryer conditions over the next couple weeks causing intensifying drought conditions.

Corn Areas in Drought

According to the U.S. drought monitor we are at 29% of the U.S. corn crop in drought conditions.

Corn States in Drought

Nebraska is at 67% of corn crop in drought conditions with 12% of the corn in Nebraska sitting in the extreme drought conditions.

Iowa is at 22% of crops in drought, South Dakota at 23%, and Missouri at 27% but the moisture coming through may help there.

% Of US Corn in Drought Compared to Past Years

Comparing to past years we are at 29% this year and going back to a year ago we were at 36% of the U.S. corn crop in drought.

Extreme drought conditions are at 6% US corn crop and last year we were at 4%.

September Corn Chart

Corn had a nice trade day going up to 6.21 and you’ll notice it came up against our 200-day moving average.

Our next level of resistance would be at 6.23, then to our 40-day moving average at 6.48, and then 6.58.

We believe on the corn crop that the market will continue to work higher if the weather forecast stays hot and dry.

September Soybean Chart

Soybeans trade up to 14.46 and we traded through the 40-day moving average.

Resistance would be at 14.72 and if we break through that we will be at 15.07.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices traded higher today and lower yesterday.

We are coming right up against the down trending line of resistance.

9.98 will be our next resistance if we break through this overhead.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments July 27, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets had an end resting day of trade.

Grain Market News

Temperature Outlook

The market is concerned due to the weather.

The 6–10-day forecast has above normal temperatures in the corn belt.

Precipitation below normal for Nebraska, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and then spilling into Missouri and Kansas.

We can see the temperatures intensify a little mor in the 8-14 and we also end up seeing we have below normal amounts of precipitation.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Parts of Kansa, Missouri, southern part s of Illinois, Indiana, into Kentucky is good but some major areas have missed out on precipitation.

As we start to bring the temperatures back up from those areas missing the rain, what will happen to the corn yield?

14-Day Precipitation % of Normal

We have parts of eastern Nebraska, western Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, into southwest Minnesota, and then catching the eastern part of South Dakota that have been dry and are not getting the moisture that they need with water temperatures coming.

Hazards Outlook

As we go into the first days of August is when we are looking at some of the highest degrees of heat and the dryness.

In brown is a rapid onset of grout risk, that’s within Iowa, and parts of south Minnesota and the eastern part of Nebraska.

As we get out to the middle of August, we will start seeing some showers start making their way around the ridge again.

Weekly Ethanol Production

We came in at 1.021 million barrels and we needed 1.072 million barrels.

Year to date we are up 6.5% which takes us back to September.

Looking at the July WASDA report, they had ethanol production which had corn use for ethanol up 6.8%.

If we don’t pick up our pace here in the future WASDA reports, we will end up having to reduce the amount of demand for corn to ethanol.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

We came in at 23.328 million barrels, that would be up 2.6% from where we were last year.

September Corn Chart

Corn traded all the way up today to 6.06.

We did close over this red line which is the 40-day moving average.

Overhead resistance is at 6.06 after that we come to the red line at the 200-day moving average at 6.21, and then we come to the resistance established from a few weeks ago at 6.23.

September Soybean Chart

Soybeans traded above the 200-day moving average and through the downtrend line.

We broke our resistance level at 13.93, so now as we look at where this market would trade from here, we have a resistance at 14.38 or the 40-day moving average at 14.40.  

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat was very volatile as we traded higher breaking through the 40-day average and then reversed back down settling at the 10-day moving average.

Our next chart support would be at 8.32 and then below that would be down at the 8.14.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments July 26, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished higher to sharply higher for the second day in a row as next week’s forecast is calling for the possibility of some extreme heat in the western belt and that could harm crops.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Conditions

We are below last year in red and below the green line from two years ago.

With crop conditions falling, private analysts are going to be lowering their yield estimates slightly as U.S. corn crop has seen a couple steady weeks but generally has been declining the past two months.

Corn Change in G/E

This week a 3% drop down to 61% good to excellent took place with the eastern belt improving.

Ohio up 6, Wisconsin up 2, Illinois and Indiana up 1.

But declines in the central and western belt pretty much across the board easily overtook the improved conditions

Soybean Crop Conditions

Soybean conditions have dropped every week since USDA began their crop condition report a couple months ago.

We are still 1% ahead of last year’s rating at this time but we are way below the ratings from two years ago.

Crop conditions may be able to stabilize next week because of the rains and cooler temperatures this week.

But if next week’s forecast is correct with extreme heat and dryness then we will start to trend lower again.

Soybeans Change in G/E

Soybeans declined 3% this week because in the eastern belt having Ohio, North Carolina, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Indiana improving but down in the Delta we had a major lowering.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Yesterday’s high temperatures you can see extreme heat in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and then down into the delta.

Around that ridge, the ridge riding storm falling from eastern Colorado through southern Nebraska, Kansas, northern Missouri, into southern Illinois.

This area saw some good rains and those are ridge riding thunderstorms.

24-Hour Observed Precipitation

You can see our high-pressure ridge form southern Kanas down through the delta, Oklahoma, into Texas and ridge riding rain and thunderstorms falling just north of the high-pressure ridge.

In fact, some areas in central Missouri and south of St. Louis saw 6-8 inches of rain or more over the last 24 hours.

30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal

Looking at precipitation over the past 30 days you can see those rains from northern Kansas, north and central Missouri, through southern Illinois.

Those areas have gotten good rains and will be able to withstand some heat and dryness. Same thing is true from southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, through northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and into Ohio.

But a large area in central Minnesota, southern Minnesota, much of Iowa, eastern Nebraska have missed out on the rain as well as a large area in the southern plain into the Delta.

These areas that we are highlighting that will be the first to see stress over the next week if we do get high temperatures.

Current Conditions

As of today, that ridge is still southern Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, into the delta region and we are still seeing some rains on the right side of the screen from northern Kansas into central Missouri and the southern portion of the east end belt.

The heart of the belt is okay for now with temperatures today mostly in the 70s low 80s and not much rain in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.  

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7-day precipitation shows very little to no rain in the northern half of the belt with additional solid rains in the southern portions of the belt.

Temperature Outlook

Above to much above normal temperature across the belt in the 6-10 day especially in the northwestern belt and northern plains.

Then a high-pressure ridge will park itself right in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt in the second week of the forecast.

We don’t know if this will verify but as of today that would cause dry conditions initially in the plain states into the western belt but then across the entire belt in the second week.

European Model High Temps

The European model, anything in the light pink is a hundred degrees for above.

So, the European model is looking at mid to upper 90s across almost the entire belt with a lot of 100s from eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, portions of Missouri, and Illinois.

That is in addition to extreme heat in the southern plains.

September Corn Chart

Corn prices gapped higher last night on crop conditions falling by 3% points and then the market closed near the daily highs just above $6.

We are up about 40 cents from where we were at Friday afternoon.

The chart looks good turning higher, technical indicators look good as well, we’ve broken through the 10-day moving average, and now we are challenging the 20-day moving average.

Bottom line is chart and technical look quite good for corn following today’s strong performance.

September Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also gapping higher last night, charts look very good and technical indicators look good as well.

We are getting close to overhead resistance, at least initial overhead resistance at $14, if we can break through that then 14.38 would be the next target.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices sharpy higher today with the charts looking good and technical indicators have turned higher as well.

We are near overhead resistance from a downtrend line and the 20-day moving average.

If we breakthrough that, $10 would be the next target which is over a $1 away.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments July 22, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today with wheat the downside leader on an agreement signed between Russia and Ukraine for shipping grain.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Grain Market News

30-Day Observed Precipitation

Beginning with past weather, over the past 30 days this is the observed precipitation.

Normal is 4-5 inches for a month, so it should be brown, and we do see some pockets where we saw normal to even above normal rain over the past 30 days.

These are the areas that are probably sitting pretty good when it comes to the current soil moisture and crop conditions.

Anything in green is less than 2 inches, less than half of normal, and we also see numerous pockets where they have seen less than normal rain.

The biggest area that has missed out on the rain is down in the southern plains into the Delta.

30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal

 You can see those pockets of above normal rain in the past 30 days.

We also see some large areas where we see below normal precipitation and anything in tan is less than half of normal.

So, we have some significant areas that need to get some rain to prevent crop stress and the potential for yield loss.

U.S. Drought Monitor

The drought monitor reflects the rain we have gotten, and it shows we have dryness in portions of Indiana, eastern Illinois, southern Minnesota, Nebraska, and a large area in the southern plains into the delta.

Drought Monitor Class Change

Anything in green is where soil moisture and drought has improved, anything in yellow or tan is where the drought has gotten worse.

Again, the easiest to identify is the significant drought development in the southern plains into the delta region.

As we move into the corn belt, we can see that there have been some areas in green where drought has improved, but we also see areas in yellow where drought has increased.

More mixed results in this heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

We haven’t seen much rain this week, in fact most of the central U.S. corn and bean belt has been dry this week.

Yes, there has been some isolated showers from northeast Indiana, eastern Ohio, and then some scattered showers in portions of central western Nebraska, southern Minnesota, and eastern South Dakota.

High Temperatures

The southern and western plains down into the Delta region seeing temperatures in the upper 90s and 100s.

That continues to present significant or even major crop stress in those areas.

The heart of the US corn and bean belt has not seen the temperatures as extreme, temperatures yesterday mostly in the upper 80s low 90s.

If you have adequate soil moisture you are probably doing fine but if you are dry, you are probably seeing crop stress.

Current Conditions

Our current weather also includes a radar that is clear for the most part for the heart of the US corn and bean belt.

Temperatures as of noon mostly in the mid-80s in the heart, 90s down to the south, but keep in mind add another 6-7 degrees to this for the daily highs.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Precipitation for the next 7 days, as you can see the eastern belt expecting 1-2 inches of rain isolated and possibly even more.

Out in the central belt, generally a quarter to 3 quarters with isolated 1-inch totals and out in the plains generally a quarter to a half of an inch.

Some areas a little less and some a little more.

Temperature Outlook

The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast show temperatures near normal in the 6-10 day with cooler to the north and warmer to the south. While everyone starts to get warmer in the second week of the forecast.

Precipitation looks to be above normal based on this national weather service map in the 6-10 day and normal to above normal in the 8-14 day.

If this forecast verifies, we will call this nonthreatening.

Monthly Temperature Outlook

This map, temperatures for August looks to be above normal in the entire U.S. corn and bean belt with precipitation below normal for the entire U.S. corn and bean belt.

This is a long term forecast and therefore could see many changes but as of yesterday the national weather service is looking for a return to warmer and dryer conditions in August.

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook

The U.S. drought monitor is looking for expanding drought conditions in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

Specifically, west of the Mississippi river with expanding drought in southern Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Kansas.

This is for the July 21st-October 21st, but it includes those warmer, dryer conditions in August.

December Corn Chart

The corn chart had a very disappointing day, we came down not only testing the lows from almost 3 weeks ago but made a new low at 5.61.

That does keep the overall downtrend intact despite the fact that we have had a couple of sharp rallies, one 2 weeks ago and one last week.

Chart watchers are probably eying up an extended period of consolidation between about 5.40-5.65 and we are very close to that level.

So even though we are in a downtrend we are not looking for significant downsides from this level.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also very disappointing making a new low for the move down to 12.88.

The good news in soybeans is they turned around and closed at 13.15 that’s 27 cents above the daily low.

That was enough to start hooking our technical, but if you look technical indicators are down and up repeatedly.

Todays move to 12.88 is a top of a consolidation area that we saw that goes back many months from about the 12.25-13 level.

That is the target that many chart watchers are probably analyzing if we can get down a little lower on the current break.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have pushed down to new lows as well.

Corn, beans, and wheat all making new lows today keeping the overall downtrend intact.

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th and we are significantly below the prices even prior to when Russia invaded Ukraine.

We also have a consolidation area that took place over about 4 months from 7.55-8.66 and we are now in that area.

Even though there is no sign of bottoming action this is no place to making sales in wheat.

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