Grain markets finished mixed today as the outside markets were mixed but outside markets concerns are giving grain traders some caution at this time.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
Soil Moisture Drought Indicator
The root soil moisture is basically the top meter or approximately the top 3 foot of soil moisture which is the area that crops have access to.
When we look at the U.S. you can see dry to the west and generally wetter to the north and east.
In South America you can see some definite dry conditions developing for the safrinha corn crop.
As a whole, there seems to be about an equal amount of blues versus yellow/orange, but key growing areas of the northern hemisphere are having some problems.
Europe/China Soil Moisture
France is a key producing region in Europe, but overall Europe is struggling with dry conditions.
If I highlight where Chinese prime crop areas are they are starting to experience some significant dryness as well. If this continues to be a problem, we will take a closer look at China in the weeks to come.
S.A. Soil Moisture
Brazil’s safrinha corn growing region is mostly experiencing soil moisture dryness, they have had extremely cold temperatures recently.
In fact, there is an opportunity for frost again tomorrow morning in the far southern region, I’m not overly concerned but cold, dry conditions are in place for Brazil.
With the exception of Russia, many of the worlds primary growing regions are seeing some weather issues at this time.
3-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 3 days we’ve had additional dryness in the central US corn and bean belt. That is allowing planters to run aggressively in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and keep in mind that these are the three largest corn producing states in the nation.
But primarily yesterday we saw additional precipitation in North Dakota, extending into western Minnesota, the southern Canadian prairies, and northern South Dakota.
This area is becoming a bigger concern, not only for getting crops planted timely but also the increased risk of prevented plant acres.
There was some heavy rain that feel from Missouri through southern Illinois and south Indiana into Ohio and unfortunately more heavy rain could fall over the next week.
The bottom line is that this week’s weather has been mixed.
We can see that mostly 80s through the heart of the US corn and bean belt with a few 90s to the west.
We do have an ongoing extreme heat in the southwestern plains with temperatures into the 100s again and then we have very cool temperatures as a cold front is slashing through the Dakotas and Minnesota.
Temperatures in North Dakota were in the upper 30s low 40s, some of these areas could see high temperatures around the 40-degree mark.
This is extremely cool and following the recent rains not going to allow much drying.
In fact, when we look at the US radar at 1pm today, light rain and snow showers across North Dakota showing just how cold it is.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Looking ahead the forecast shows at least a little bit of drying possible in the far northern plains. That would be a welcome relief in those areas.
Buy heavy rain from 1-5 inches of rain could fall from the areas of southeast Iowa all the way through the southern belt, the Delta, and into the eastern belt.
Our 6-10 day shows cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the south. The 8-14 day shows normal in the northwestern plains and above normal temperatures for most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.
Precipitation shows ongoing dryness in the southwestern plains and ongoing wetness in the Delta and eastern belt.
That continues in the 8-14 day as well.
U.S. Drought Monitor
The drought monitors show drought ongoing in the southwestern plains, although Nebraska has had some moisture, they are still under drought conditions.
Drought Monitor Class Change
Anything in blue/green are areas where drought has improved, we see continued improvement in the northern belt and into the northern plains.
Drought has been chewed away at in portions of north Texas and eastern Oklahoma but in the southwestern plain’s drought is ongoing and mostly intensifying.
U.S. Seasonal Drought
Weather forecasts are concerned that the drought in the southwestern plains could expand into the western corn belt and that’s something that will need to be monitored going forward. We hope that’s not the case, but it is something worth monitoring.
The bottom line is that U.S. and global weather is less than ideal.
July Corn Chart
Corn prices are trending lower off of the highs that were posted on Monday and for the second day in a row corn price are finding support at the 40-day moving average.
Todays close at 7.78 is about a dime above last week’s lows, if we don’t get supportive news early next week that 7.59 would be the next target from a downside objective.
If we get friendly news this week’s high at 8.10 would be the next objective.
July Soybean Chart
The soybean market has been to the upper end and lower end of the range carved out over the last 3-4 months.
Right now, the soybean market has turned upwards, the trend is up, and that’s based on strong exports which are reducing U.S. stock.
Technical indicators are still pointed upward.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices posted a new contract high at 13.79 earlier this week but since have fallen sharply in profit taking.
Technical indicators have turned down and we mentioned earlier this week that wheat has chart support between 12.59-12.02 and we are in that area of support.
Even though there is no sign of bottoming yet from the short term, the market has now fallen to an area of support where we are no longer a seller of wheat.
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