Closing Market Comments May 20, 2022

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today as the outside markets were mixed but outside markets concerns are giving grain traders some caution at this time.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

Soil Moisture Drought Indicator

The root soil moisture is basically the top meter or approximately the top 3 foot of soil moisture which is the area that crops have access to.

When we look at the U.S. you can see dry to the west and generally wetter to the north and east.

In South America you can see some definite dry conditions developing for the safrinha corn crop.

As a whole, there seems to be about an equal amount of blues versus yellow/orange, but key growing areas of the northern hemisphere are having some problems.

Europe/China Soil Moisture

France is a key producing region in Europe, but overall Europe is struggling with dry conditions.

If I highlight where Chinese prime crop areas are they are starting to experience some significant dryness as well. If this continues to be a problem, we will take a closer look at China in the weeks to come.

S.A. Soil Moisture

Brazil’s safrinha corn growing region is mostly experiencing soil moisture dryness, they have had extremely cold temperatures recently.

In fact, there is an opportunity for frost again tomorrow morning in the far southern region, I’m not overly concerned but cold, dry conditions are in place for Brazil.

With the exception of Russia, many of the worlds primary growing regions are seeing some weather issues at this time.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the past 3 days we’ve had additional dryness in the central US corn and bean belt. That is allowing planters to run aggressively in Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and keep in mind that these are the three largest corn producing states in the nation.

But primarily yesterday we saw additional precipitation in North Dakota, extending into western Minnesota, the southern Canadian prairies, and northern South Dakota.

This area is becoming a bigger concern, not only for getting crops planted timely but also the increased risk of prevented plant acres.

There was some heavy rain that feel from Missouri through southern Illinois and south Indiana into Ohio and unfortunately more heavy rain could fall over the next week.

The bottom line is that this week’s weather has been mixed.

High Temperatures

We can see that mostly 80s through the heart of the US corn and bean belt with a few 90s to the west.

We do have an ongoing extreme heat in the southwestern plains with temperatures into the 100s again and then we have very cool temperatures as a cold front is slashing through the Dakotas and Minnesota.

U.S. Conditions

Temperatures in North Dakota were in the upper 30s low 40s, some of these areas could see high temperatures around the 40-degree mark.

This is extremely cool and following the recent rains not going to allow much drying.

In fact, when we look at the US radar at 1pm today, light rain and snow showers across North Dakota showing just how cold it is.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Looking ahead the forecast shows at least a little bit of drying possible in the far northern plains. That would be a welcome relief in those areas.

Buy heavy rain from 1-5 inches of rain could fall from the areas of southeast Iowa all the way through the southern belt, the Delta, and into the eastern belt.

Temperature Outlook

Our 6-10 day shows cooler temperatures to the north and warmer to the south. The 8-14 day shows normal in the northwestern plains and above normal temperatures for most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

Precipitation shows ongoing dryness in the southwestern plains and ongoing wetness in the Delta and eastern belt.

That continues in the 8-14 day as well.

U.S. Drought Monitor

The drought monitors show drought ongoing in the southwestern plains, although Nebraska has had some moisture, they are still under drought conditions.

Drought Monitor Class Change

Anything in blue/green are areas where drought has improved, we see continued improvement in the northern belt and into the northern plains.

Drought has been chewed away at in portions of north Texas and eastern Oklahoma but in the southwestern plain’s drought is ongoing and mostly intensifying.

U.S. Seasonal Drought

Weather forecasts are concerned that the drought in the southwestern plains could expand into the western corn belt and that’s something that will need to be monitored going forward. We hope that’s not the case, but it is something worth monitoring.

The bottom line is that U.S. and global weather is less than ideal.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices are trending lower off of the highs that were posted on Monday and for the second day in a row corn price are finding support at the 40-day moving average.

Todays close at 7.78 is about a dime above last week’s lows, if we don’t get supportive news early next week that 7.59 would be the next target from a downside objective.

If we get friendly news this week’s high at 8.10 would be the next objective.

July Soybean Chart

The soybean market has been to the upper end and lower end of the range carved out over the last 3-4 months.

Right now, the soybean market has turned upwards, the trend is up, and that’s based on strong exports which are reducing U.S. stock.

Technical indicators are still pointed upward.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices posted a new contract high at 13.79 earlier this week but since have fallen sharply in profit taking.

Technical indicators have turned down and we mentioned earlier this week that wheat has chart support between 12.59-12.02 and we are in that area of support.

Even though there is no sign of bottoming yet from the short term, the market has now fallen to an area of support where we are no longer a seller of wheat.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments 5-19-2022

To zoom in on a phone, tablet, or touch screen, place two fingers on screen and move them apart. To zoom out pinch fingers together

Today’s Prices

Grain Prices finished mixed today as the outside markets tried to somewhat consolidate after yesterday’s big losses.

Grain Market News

Dow Jones Industrial Average

From the highs posted around the first of the year just shy of 27.000, today’s lower move in the Dow pushed it to a new low for the move with the stock market down nearly 6000 points since the first of the year.

Yesterday’s big collapse was somewhat triggered by Walmart and targets quarterly earning which were significantly below expectations.

Crude Oil

Although crude oil was down yesterday and down sharply this morning it has turned around and is trading higher today.

Overall, the rally yin the crude oil market and the uptrend does continue for crude at this time.

Grain Market News

Global Wheat Exporters

This chart shows the USDA estimates prior to Russia’s war against Ukraine.

It shows that the European Union would be the largest exporter in the world at 37.5 million tons, Russia at 35 which has been raised to 39, Australia was considered to be the third largest exporter at 25.5 with Ukraine prior to the war estimated at 24.2 and is now revised to 19.0.

Russia’s war against Ukraine certainly reducing Ukraine exports this year and possibly further next year.

Corn Weekly Export Sales  

Weekly corn sales came in at 435 thousand tons, that was somewhat disappointing and one of the lowest totals we’ve seen since January.

The good news is we got such a significant export book on that it was still above the level needed which is 269 to reach USDA export forecast.

World Corn Futures

Prices compared to where they were at on January 1st, European wheat in red has rallied 63% while US corn had only rallied just over 33% and prices have fallen in the last couple of days.

Europe is a net importer of corn, and they typically get the majority of their imports from Ukraine, given the fact that European corn continues to rally while US corn has slipped lower tells us that the US should see a strong export program to the European Union for corn.

Soybean Weekly Export Sales

Soybean exports had a very good number at 753 thousand tons, when you look at the level needed it shows -57. This means we have already sold more soybeans than USDA has projected for the marketing year.

Its certain that USDA will have to raise exports for soybeans which will tighten stocks.

Wheat Weekly Export Sales

Wheat only has 2 weeks left in the marketing year and typically if you look at this chart, we don’t have many exports at the tail end of the year.

The good news was 325 thousand tons of new crop wheat was sold beginning June 1st.

The bottom line with wheat is that the crop marketing year is coming to an end and sales this time of year do not have an impact on final export numbers.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

We have had some lighter rains this week for the most part.

Most of the corn and bean belt has seen a .25-.50 inch of rain and some with less or more.

The only big rains have been in portions of eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and then eastern Kansas and neighboring portions of Missouri and Oklahoma.

Almost all of North Dakota is seeing rains which is disappointing for planting.

U.S. Radar

You can see the rains covering almost all of North Dakota with them moving to the east which will keep them from the field and further delay planting.

Much of the corn and bean belt is free of rain at this time but we do have rains that are developing and moving to the north and east. Most of the eastern corn belt will get significant rain over the next 2-3 days.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Most of the eastern corn belt is expecting 1-2 inches of rain but they have been able to plant quite a bit recently, but these new rains will further delay planting though.

Temperature Outlook

The temperatures look somewhat cool to the north and warmer to the south in the 6-10 day.

The 8-14 day generally shows mostly a warmer pattern for everywhere.

Precipitation looks dry for the 6-10 day in the southwestern plains, above normal precipitation in the central and eastern belt, and a similar pattern in the 8-14 day with dryer conditions in the southern sand western plains and wetter in the north and the east.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices trading lower today, breaking below trend line support shown by the blue arrowed line and finding support at the black line which is the 40-day moving average.

We mentioned yesterday if we did not find support at our trend line that the next target would be around the previous lows from a week ago at 7.69 and todays low came within 4 cents of that low.

Additional chart support is at 7.69, that’s 14 cents below todays close with current overhead resistance at 8.10.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are in a solid uptrend off the lows posted 1.5 weeks ago and technical indicators are pointed up as well.

No signs of topping action and a little friendly news could allow soybeans to test the upper end of the trading channel that’s been in place since February.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices down for the second day in a row, we were able to fill the gap that was left Monday morning.

The short-term chart has turned downward and the technical as well.

There is no sign of bottoming action, we are not overly bearish wheat, but we could see some additional chart day selling.

Questions or Comments

To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.

Closing Market Comments 5-18-2022

To zoom in on a phone, tablet, or touch screen, place two fingers on screen and move them apart. To zoom out pinch fingers together

Today’s Prices

Grain prices sharply lower across the board as outside market pressures spilled over and created selling in the grain market.

Grain Market News

KC Wheat minus Corn

The KC wheat is trading at over a $5 per bushel premium to US corn futures.

That means that virtually no wheat is going to be fed unless it is unfit for either human consumption or for blending.

Last year in the April-June timeframe wheat was 50 cents per bushel below the price of corn.

Crude Oil Divided by Corn Price

Back when covid (2020) started crude oil prices tanked and was relatively cheap compared to corn.

Last year at this time in the month of May crude oil was trading at about 9 times the value of corn.

As of today, crude oil is nearly 14 times the value of corn.

As we see this crude oil/corn ratio increase it tells us that corn is relatively cheap compared to the price of energy and in this case the price of crude oil.

Weekly Ethanol Production

Ethanol production held steady at 991 thousand barrels per day, that a little bit below the level needed to reach USDA’s current estimate.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks dropped this week to the lowest going back to the month of January, ethanol is relatively cheap.

Its over a $1 per gallon cheaper than gasoline which means blenders will be eager to use ethanol as much as possible since it is cheaper.

Prices vs. Last Year

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Here in the US, we had quite favorable conditions for much of the belt over the last week.

Yesterday’s high temperatures in the 70s and 80s across the heart of the belt, which is good for this time of the year.

It was relatively cool in the northern plains with highs in the low to mid 60s and it was much too hot in the southwestern plains with another day of 100s.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the last 3 days we have started to see increased precipitation including in areas where there hadn’t been rain in over a week.

We started to see rains develop in the northwestern let but more significant rains across the central belt which will start slowing planting progress again.

U.S. Radar

The rain that fell in the central belt are moving eastward and covering most of the eastern belt.

Severe Weather Outlook

Most of the central belt looks to be pretty much clear this afternoon but we do have more rain possible in the central belt tomorrow and then moving into the eastern belt on Friday.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The heavy rain could fall anywhere from the central and eastern Iowa area through the southern belt, the delta into the eastern belt.

Mixed news in the northern plains from northern South Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and most of North Dakota. They are expecting some additional rain, the good news is it doesn’t look heavy.

But at this point in the north any rain is unwanted.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices today fell sharply and tested chart support where our uptrend line comes into play and also our 40-day moving average.

If that doesn’t hold the next level of chart support will be last week’s lows at 7.69 per bushel.

We think that the long-term trend will remain up but in the short-term additional back and forth choppy trade is certainly possible.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also in a choppy sideways mode, right now prices are working higher within that sideways range.

Technical indicators look good but today was a disappointing day.

Chart support was right at mid-range in the sideways channel.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices exploded to new contract highs this week, in fact KC July wheat has rallied nearly $3 per bushel in less than 3 weeks.

Yesterday the market tried to fill a gap that was left in the charts on Monday morning, we filled a good share but not completely.

That gap was down to about 12.92, about another 30 cents below where we closed today.

We also would have significant chart support at the breakout level at 12.59.

Questions or Comments

To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.

Closing Market Comments 5-16-2022

To zoom in on a phone, tablet, or touch screen, place two fingers on screen and move them apart. To zoom out pinch fingers together

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished sharply higher across the board with wheat leading the way due to India banning exports.

Grain Market News

Indian Wheat Exports

When India has good crop they can export, 20 years they exported 4-6 million metric tons, 10 years ago they exported 5-7mmt. Over the past couple of years, they were able to export 8-9mmt.

There was some talk that India this year may be able to export 10mmt, but as weather has harmed their crop current estimates from Ag resources estimated only 1.5mmt in exports.

That would be either government sales or wheat sales that are already on the books.

Paris Milling Wheat

European wheat shot up along with U.S. wheat today to new highs for this move and now are approaching the contract highs from March.

NOPA Soybean Crush

NOPA issued their April crush, the April soybean crush came in at 169.8 million bushels in the month of April.

That was up 5.9% from last year, now this was slightly smaller than what the trade expected but still significantly the year ago level and the second highest April crush on record.

With cash crushing margin estimated to be above $3 per bushel in the western and eastern belt, it’s expected that soybean crush is going to remain strong and near record levels as we move into the summertime.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn was disappointing at just 40.8 bushels, compared to exports near 60 million bushels last week, which was adjusted upward by over 3 million bushels.

Today’s corn export inspection number was disappointing and likely allowed corn to remain relatively quiet compared to the big rally in the wheat market.

Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybeans came in at a huge 28.8 million bushels, well above the level needed to meet the USDA forecast and a near record large soybean export number for mid-May.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat exports bounced from last week up to 27.8 million bushels, still somewhat disappointing.

There is only 2 weeks left in the marketing year and USDA is not likely to make large adjustments to their export numbers in next months report.

Unleaded Gasoline

Unleaded gasoline exploded to the upside going well above the $4 level.

Given the fact that ethanol slots are trading in at about 2.75 per gallon, ethanol is extremely competitive for the blenders and the demand should remain strong for ethanol.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The 7-day shows a pretty good opening where much of the central and southern us has only scattered showers and some locations in Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana had nearly a week of drying weather.

Planters were stated to be rolling aggressively in many areas.

In the central and southern belt if you happen to be under some of those pockets of shower, that could have been disappointing.

In the northern plains from North Dakota, Minnesota, adjacent areas of the southern Canadian prairies, and South Dakota remain very wet.

USDA will be updating its planting progress numbers for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat this afternoon.

We are looking for corn planting to advance from 22% last week up to something between 42-45% this week.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Looking ahead we may start to see more delays again.

The northern belt and northern plains could see more rain, and the central/eastern belt could see more rain.

A half inch to an inch and a half which would slow down planting.

We may see progress, but remaining acres may be more delayed.

Temperature Outlook

This shows the northwestern half of the belt below normal temperatures in the 6-10 day and the northern half of the belt in the 8-14 day below normal temperatures also.  

July Corn Chart

Corn prices bounced support at the uptrend line and the 40-day moving average a week ago.

Prices today pushed into new highs for the move up to 8.10, not only is that a new high for the move but it has surged above both the 20- and 40-day moving averages.

The technical indicators also pointed upward, therefore from a chart and technical perspective, 8.24 looks to be the next level of overhead resistance.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also shooting higher to new highs for the move up to 16.68.

That’s 90 cents above last Mondays low and with the chart and technical pointed upward this market looks like it may be interested in testing the upper end of our range in the 17.25-17.50 level.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices gapped higher and finished limit up at 13.52 taking out the previous contract high posted in March at 12.59 by nearly a dollar.

Wheat supplies globally are tightening, prices are rallying, and there is no sign of topping action in the wheat.

Questions or Comments

To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.

Closing Market Comments 5-13-2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today as the market tries to digest yesterday’s USDA crop report and look ahead to weather items of next week.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Ending Stocks

Our current year crop stock was unchanged at 1.44 billion bushels.

New crop stocks estimated at 1.36 but this was well above what the trade was expecting and considered lightly negative.

It is projected that this year’s stocks will be in the 1.1-1.2 billon range, if that’s true that will be the lowest going back to the drought years following 2012.

U.S. Soybeans Ending Stocks

Our current crop year is at 235, down 25 million bushels from last month and it is above last year’s ending stocks of 257.

Next year USDA is projecting stocks will increase to 310 million bushels.

Even though stocks are projected to be higher next year this estimate at 310 was below the average trade guess.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

USDA projected the stocks would drop next year and many believe that this number could be down closer to 500.

We would be looking at some of the tightest stock for U.S. wheat going back about 15-16 years.

U.S. Grain Stocks

This year’s stock projected to be very close to last year’s stocks, this year being end stock for 2022 which ends late this summer on August 31st.

Keep in mind that this total is likely going to slip lower for corn and soybeans and next year’s stock many believe are going to be well below what the current USDA is estimating.

Global Wheat Ending Stocks

This year’s stock expected to be slightly below last year’s stock, next year’s stock slightly lower again.

Not a major change, but we have global stocks declining while global demand is rising.

That means that our stocks to use for global grain is getting event tighter.

High Temperatures

The U.S. has had very good weather in the central, southern, and eastern portions of the belt at least most of areas.

Temperatures in the low to mid 90’s is not a problem when the crop needs to be planted or germinated.

The warm weather is quite beneficial for the majority of the belt.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The Dakotas and Minnesota are seeing excessive moisture, from 1-5 inches of rain in most of the northern plains and northwest belt. Even an area with 5-8+ inches in Minnesota.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

That heavy rain in the northern plains and northwestern belt is causing excessive moisture and flooding in some parts.

30-Day Precipitation- % of Normal

Almost all of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota has seen 2-4 times the normal amount of precipitation. Some areas have seen 6x plus the normal amount over the last month.

This is clearly causing server planting delays and some cases severe flooding.

U.S. Rivers in Flood Stage

Many of the rivers that were in flood stage in the eastern belt last week due to heavy rains are now seeing those rivers levels subside and much less flooding in the eastern belt.

The northern plains continue to see flooding in the Red River Valley and additional flooding in Minnesota and South Dakota as well.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Show’s rains wrapping up today for the most part in the northern belt and northern plains. Then we should get a little break in that area of the Dakotas and Minnesota’s.

We do have rain coming into the central and eater belt over the next 7 days where 1-1.5 inches could fall which would be beneficial for those farmers who have planted.

July Corn Chart

Corns prices found chart support early this week down at the 40-day moving average and where our uptrend line comes into play.

Today markets bounced back down and testing that level again.

We can’t rule out the market testing this week’s lows at 7.69 but overall, we are not looking for a bearish trend to develop.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices look very good on a chart exploding to the upside recently.

Beans have rallied 73 cents off of Mondays low and the technical indicators have turned nicely.

We have now achieved our first objective at 16.50-16.60, which is mid-range on our price chart and where the 20- and 40-day moving average comes in to play.

If we get friendly news next week, we could expect prices to attack the upper half of the range.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have exploded to the upside rallying over $2 in less than 2 weeks.

Prices have now surged into new contract highs taking out the high of 12.59 from March.

This explosion to the upside has also taken our technical indicators well into the overbought range. 

Questions or Comments

To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.

Closing Market Comments 5-12-2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished higher today following the UDSA May crop report

Grain Market News

U.S. Ending Stocks

World Ending Stocks

South American 2022 Production

Corn Supply and Use

Soybeans Supply and Use

Wheat Supply and Use

High Temperatures

Yesterdays high in the upper 80s even mid 90s across almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt. The exception would be areas of the far northern plains.

The heat is not a problem at this time given the fact we are trying to warm up soil temperatures for germination and emergence.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

We have seen a lot of precipitation in the northwestern belt and northern plains in the last 3 days.

Southern Minnesota got hammered with rain over the last 24 hours which is going to knock most of Minnesota out of planting progress for a few days.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

There is more rain in the forecast for the northern plains over the next 7 days. That will keep planting very slow and then we do note that they will start to see more rain in the eastern belt.

Overall, we think that the weather is pretty good for the southern 2/3 but big problem remains in the northwest.

July Corn Chart

Corn prices bouncing again for the third day in a row which was enough to turn technical indicators higher.

This market looks from a chart and technical perspective like it may want to retest the highs from a few weeks ago at 8.24.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean is turning a corner for the moment in the nearby July chart, and it has turned the technical indicators up as well.

The next objective that we see is the 16.50-16.60 range, that’s the middle of our range and the moving averages come into play.

Another 30-40 cents shouldn’t be ruled out based on charts and technical formations.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices exploded on tightening global stocks and the fact that USDA did not lower India’s production and that is likely going to drag world stocks even lower in future reports.

Not only did we explode to the upside we took out the highs posted in March at 12.59 and posted a new contract high at 12.70.

Questions or Comments

To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.

Closing Market Comments 5-11-2022

To zoom in on a phone, tablet, or touch screen, place two fingers on screen and move them apart. To zoom out pinch fingers together

Today’s Prices

Grain prices higher as traders and end users desiring to get some ownership ahead of tomorrow’s USDA May crop report.

Grain Market News

Soil Moisture

You can see the extreme wetness flooding and saturation in the far northern plains, primarily North Dakota and adjacent areas of Minnesota and South Dakota. This extends well into the Canadian prairie.

In the central and western belt, we don’t have as big as of a problem with surplus moisture, so just a day or two of drying would allow many to roll ahead in planting.

In the easter corn belt, saturation is a bigger problem and therefore it does take a little longer for fields to dry out before planting can progress.

Our biggest concern is the extreme wetness in the northern plains and the drought that could expand in the southern and southwestern plains.

High Temperatures

Mid 80s and even low 90s across much of the U.S. corn and bean belt including the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

At this time that is actually favorable as it will allow for soil to warm up and allow for soil to dry out.

This will provide much better conditions for planting once we can start getting corn and soybeans in the ground.

Unfortunately, the northern plains are not seeing this warming and the southern plains is experiencing severe temperatures.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

Much of the eastern U.S. corn and bean belt is likely getting the planters rolling again as well as in the Delta where they have been missing out on the rain in the last week.

Areas of the western belt and into the plain are also likely planting but it’s not everyone.

Portions of Iowa have seen rain over the past 3 days and much of the Dakotas and central western Minnesota into the Canadian prairies have had rain preventing planting.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7-day forecast calls for additional rain in some of the wettest areas. Again, from the southern Canadian prairies into North Dakota, adjacent area of Minnesota and South Dakota and also additional rains in the central corn and bean belt.

We are getting planting going, many farmers are going aggressively right now, but it may not be a wide-open window for an extended period.

Temperature Outlook

This is showing a lot of heat in the south and southwestern US in the 6-10 and the 8–14-day forecast.

Cooler temperatures across the northeastern potions of the belt and the far North which could keep drying slow.

The precipitation outlook does call for above normal precipitation in the far northern plains in the 6-10 and the 8–14-day forecast, and dryness could continue to develop in the portions of the belt.

Conditions are much improved for about 75% of the belt, which will allow planting to go from 22% complete to maybe something in themed 40%.

Grain Market News

Bloomberg Commodity Index

There is certainly a strong uptrend in the commodity market, and we are not getting excessively overdone.

We were much higher back in the rally during 2011 and down in 2008 as well.

It certainly appears there could be additional room to the upside in the overall commodity sector.

Inflation: CPI

Inflation is still at a 40-year high, in March inflation was at 8.5% and this morning the rate is at 8.3%.

That is a very small deduction but still extremely high and at 8.3% inflation that number came in above what the trade was expecting.

Inflation is certainly a concern, and I do want to repeat that will encourage funds to hold on to long positions in the grain market.

U.S. Ending Stocks

The USDA will release its May crop report tomorrow morning.

This table shows US ending stocks and what the trade is expecting for tomorrow’s report.

World Ending Stocks

South American 2022 Production

July Corn Chart

The corn chart has turned higher, stabilized yesterday and turned higher today. This was enough to turn the technical indicators higher.

We do have a crop report tomorrow that could provide some surprises. But the chart and technical indicators do indicate some bottoming action and the potential for higher prices.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also stabilized yesterday and rallied today; this made the chart looks better as well as the technical indicators turning higher.

The chart and technical indicators could be indicating some additional upside potential provided we don’t get any bearish surprises from the USDA crop report tomorrow.  

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices made a new high for the move up to 12.07 on the July chart.

We took out the high posted from April and that puts 12.59 as the next target and unless we get bearish news, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market working in that direction in the next few weeks.

Questions or Comments

To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.

Closing Market Comments 5-10-2022

Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished higher, mostly in a recovery mode, following the recent losses.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

We are at 22% planted, that is near record lows. Next week we should see a nice improvement, we are estimating somewhere between 20-25% may get planted this week depending on how much rain falls between now and this weekend.

That could put us up into the upper 40s for percent planted.

Now that is still going to be an extremely slow start and we will still be 2 weeks behind average.

Soybean Planting Progress

Soybean progress came in at 12% complete, near record lows. Next week we should see that pick up significantly, maybe pushing up close to 30% levels in next weeks reports.

It’s still going to be a slow start to the planting season, but like corn we will start to have much better percentages.

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

Winter wheat did improve from 27% to 29% good to excellent, which is still a very low rating and the lowest since 1996.

With heat and dryness in the southern plains we would expect crop conditions likely to hold about steady heading into next week’s report.

High Temperatures

Yesterday we saw a big increase in the temperatures across the central US corn and bean belt and the heart of the belt, with a lot of temperatures in the mid upper 80s even low 90s.

That’s really going to help not only start drying the soil out more quickly but also warm up the soil temperatures for when planting takes place.

More heat in the southern and southwestern Palins with temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s for the third day in a row, that’s going to hurt wheat conditions down in southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle.

3-Day Observed Precipitation

We have seen substantial rain for most of North Dakota, northern South Dakota, and northwestern Minnesota.

This is an area of concern where planting has been minimal at best, and we are not going to see much progress this week due to rainfall of generally a .5-1 inch and some 2-3 inches.

The eastern belt into the southern belt where planting should be accelerating quickly, very little or no rain over the past 3 days is a positive factor. It is allowing significant drying where there was lots of moisture.

Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois all reported 40-60% surplus soil moisture, but the 3 days of drying and a good-looking forecast should allow them to start accelerating the planting pace.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The forecast unfortunately calls for more rain in North Dakota and adjacent areas of South Dakota and Minnesota. Planting is going to remain slow if not at a standstill in many of these areas.

But rain that is forecast over the next 7 days is relatively light, generally .25-.50 inches, overall, that’s not bad.

With temperatures in the 80s and low 90s we should see lots of progress taking place.

Grain Market News

Grain Market News


Wheat is grown primarily in the northern and north central portions of India. About 90% of the wheat is grown here.

Now through May 18th shows very little to no rain across most of their wheat growing area and all the way through late May shows mostly dry conditions. This not good news for the India wheat crop.


Temperatures in India expected to be above normal for most of their wheat growing areas, some areas could see well above normal temperatures.

Yield losses could be 15-20% for India’s wheat crop.

U.S. Ending Stocks

July Corn Chart

Corn prices today did hold chart support at our uptrend line and where our 40-day moving average comes into play, but it was an inside day ending slightly higher.

The short-term chart is still pointed downward but we are sitting right at significant chart support and technical indicators are in the oversold area.

July Soybean Chart

Soybean prices had an inside day, did close a little higher so the chart is still pointed downward despite the fact we closed higher today.

Technical indicators, which were oversold as ever, did start to show signs of hooking.

If the market can close a little higher tomorrow it may signal some bottoming action in beans, and we would not be surprised to see the bean market working back higher as we move forward.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been on a rally here recently, over the last 3 days we started to consolidate a little bit, but nonetheless the wheat market looks to be on solid footing from a trend perspective.

The next overhead resistance is at the $12-12.02 range where there is a double top, if that is breached then 12.59 would be the next target.

We currently have significant chart support down in the 11.40-11.50 range.

Questions or Comments

To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.