Grain markets finished sharply higher today as there is still no major change in the weather forecast and crop conditions fell more than what was expected.
Grain Market News
Calculated Soil Moisture
The lack of rainfall has allowed soil moisture compared to normal to be below average in almost the entire belt.
Corn and Soybean Topsoil Moisture
Corn Crop Conditions
Soybean Crop Conditions
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Weather will continue to be the primary driver for grain prices.
We have a large area that has received very little rain over the last 7 days.
There was some rain in Iowa, southern Minnesota, northern Missouri but those rains were scattered.
In addition to the lack of rainfall, dry soil is allowing temperatures to rise into the 90s in some of those driest areas.
Upper 90s in the North Dakota and northern South Dakota and then in and around 90 throughout almost the rest of the belt.
Today’s radar shows some rain out in the plains, also some rain to the southeast and east coast.
Unfortunately, the heart and the bulk of the belt are dry.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast shows very good rain in western Nebraska, the Dakotas, and much of Minnesota.
Very good rains in the southeast and east coast of the U.S.
Unfortunately, there is less rain with less than a half an inch across the heart of the belt.
Our 6–10-day temperatures as well as the 8-14 day showing mostly above normal temperatures.
A high-pressure ridge in Texas is expected to build up towards the southwestern belt and could be somewhat similar in the 8-14 day.
Ridge riding rains are possible across the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan in the longer term map but unfortunately these types of rainfall have not developed over the past few weeks.
May Corn Chart
Corn prices have exploded to the upside with today’s high at 6.29, a new high.
We are getting close to the highs from September-November timeframe.
In fact, the high prices were posted in October at 6.37.
If we got negative news the market could easily set back into the range.
The upper end around 5.98 would be a target if we see improved weather.
If it doesn’t improve then corn will likely push into new highs.
May Soybean Chart
Soybean pushed into new highs at 13.78.
We have multiple highs around the 14-14.25 levels which is the target if we continue to get friendly weather or hotter weather.
If we start to see an improved forecast this market could easily fall back into the 13.38-12.85 area.
May KC Wheat Chart
Wheat rallied to a new high for this move up to 8.76.
That’s up about a dollar in just a week’s timeframe.
Wheat is primarily a follower of corn and beans.
We are going to see if what can continue to work towards that $9 level.
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