Closing Market Comments

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today.

Grain Market News

Vegetation Health

The U.S. drought in the southern and southwestern plains continues to be severe sand much worse than last year.

In the northern plains, although crops aren’t planted yet, overall vegetation health are much greener than they were a year ago.

India is having severe problems with drought, most of their crops are grown in the central and northern portions. You can see that their vegetation index is much worse than a year ago.

Drought Monitor

This year the northern plains is much improved, in fact excessive moisture and flooding is reported.

The southern and southwestern plains are experiencing some severe drought this year while last year in the south and southwestern area only had minor drought conditions.

Overall, the issue right now is too wet in the north and too dry to the south and west.

Rivers in Flood Stage

Eastern North Dakota, northern South Dakota, and western Minnesota all have excessive moisture, and this is our primary concern when it comes to getting the U.S. spring crop planted.

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

U.S. winter wheat dropped from 29% to 27% good to excellent with crop conditions lower only one year back in 1989.

Generally, crop conditions did improve in the eastern belt but the larger hard red winter wheat crop in the plains was for the most part lower and that pulled national wheat ratings lower in the weekly update.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Iowa and Illinois seen the best planting with some areas seeing very little to no precipitation over the last week.

U.S. Corn Planting Progress

Nationwide planting is 49% complete, that is up 27% from last week.

We should get another good week this week and maybe push close to 70% planted

Northern Iowa

Reports are that the corn is going in the ground in very good condition, had adequate soil moisture and the heat we’ve seen over the past week is allowing the corn to germinate very quickly.

So, there is some very good yield potential as long as we have some good summer weather.

Soybean Planting Progress

We advanced from 12% to 30%, that’s an 18% improvement in soybean planting.

This week should be another good week pushing close to half done by next weeks report.

U.S. Radar

The radar does show we have some rain in the far northern plains, relatively scattered down into the northwestern belt.

In areas like Iowa, it doesn’t look exceptionally heavy, so once these rains pass, we should be able to get the planters rolling again.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Rainfall has been reduced for the northern plains versus yesterday’s forecast while rainfall has been increased in the central belt.

Planting progress is making very good strides last week and again this week, but we could see some delays now with the rains moving through later this week.

Temperature Outlook

Our 6-10- and 8-14-day forecast shows cooler temperatures to the north with warmer temperatures to the south and southwest.

Rainfall looks to be below average in the west in the 6-10 day and a little bit above in the far east with above normal precipitation in the northern belt in the 8-14 day.

July Corn Chart

Today was an inside day, meaning we did not take out yesterday’s high or low. It was a day of consolidation with prices slightly lower.

Overall, the long-term trend, intermediate trend, and the short-term trend is up.   

There is no sign of topping action in the corn market as of today with the next level of overhead resistance at the highs posted 2.5 weeks ago at 8.24.                                                                                                       

July Soybean Chart

The soybean market has been in a choppy sideways range for a while now.

The short-term trend is up, and today’s prices closed with a significant gain. The technical indicators look good with no sign of topping action.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices exploded yesterday with limit gains seen at times during the day in Chicago and Kansas City.

Today we did try to fill the gap early when prices were sharply lower, but prices did turn around and closed higher again with KC wheat posting a new contract high at 13.79.

There is no sign of a topping action following todays strong lose but with prices exploding to new contract highs and technical indicators extremely over bought this is the place to exercise some caution.

Questions or Comments

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July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also seeing 3 and now 4 days in a row of lower highs. This is signaling that in the immediate term the very short term the market may have some additional downside risks with chart support at a double bottom of 10.27. That 40 cents below where we closed today.

Technical indicators are pointed downward and do still have room to move, so we can’t rule out the wheat market still seeing a little bit of downward pressure at least in the short term.

But we do want to make our listeners aware that these are chart and technical signals and a war and crop reports that come out Thursday can certainly overwhelm the chart or technical signals if we get a new surge of either bearish or bullish news.

July Soybean Chart

Soybeans are also seeing a lower trend with 3 days in a row of lower highs and today a very disappointing close. The long-term trend and the intermediate term trend are both up, while the short-term trend is chopping sideways and now indicating trying to turn lower.

If this is just a correction in the midst of an overall longer-term uptrend, we would want to find support as the market gets down towards the 16.25 level. That is another 20-25 cents below where we closed today.

It’s worth noting that the lower prices today did extend the technical indicators to the downside, but they are still in a neutral range.

We have not been able to achieve over bought or oversold conditions over the last month in the soybean market.

World Feed Grain Prices

In this chart US prices are shown on the red line and currently we are below the blue line Brazilian corn and the black line which is European feed wheat.

Currently supplies are not readily available out of Argentina and very little corn is coming out of Ukraine just some going into Europe.

Not only is global demand strong but US prices are cheap now and continue to appear to be the cheapest in the world going into the month of May.

Again, more evidence that US demand is going to remain very strong.