Corn prices continue to rally and today we did post a new high at 7.55 in nearby July corn.
That keeps the trend intact, in fact the short-term trend has turned upward over the last week and the technical indicators have turned up.
There is no sign of topping action in the corn market at this time especially if we can break through the 7.55 level over the next couple of days.
Corn prices were higher today, we didn’t make a new contract high that was set last week on Thursday at 7.53, but it was a new high close. Our close at 7.39 on July wheat was the highest close for the July contract and that keeps the overall uptrend in place.
Overhead resistance currently coming in at 7.53, about 14 cents above today close.
Technical indicators are in the middle of a neutral range, so they have room to move higher if the corn market does push to new highs.
Corn prices posted a new high yesterday keeping our long-term uptrend intact. We did pull back today, but the long-term trend is still an uptrend, the intermediate term trend is an uptrend, and the short-term trend, although we were lower today, is also appearing to turn upward.
Technical indicators are stuck in a neutral range with no clear direction. It will be weather items and Russia’s war against Ukraine that will determine price direction next week.
This corn and bean ratio would be new crop November soybeans for 2022 divided by new crop December corn prices for 2022.
As prices work towards the upper end of this chart that would favor soybeans as prices would work towards the lower end of the char that would favor corn.
As we move through Winter, December-March, keep in mind this survey was sent to farmers in February with farmers to respond by the 1st of March.
At that time when this survey was produced the market was starting to favor a little bit more beans, combine that with high fertilizer prices which may have provided farmers with an incentive to plant more beans.
We saw today that corn acres came in below expectation and bean acres came in above expectation.
But we also what to note that since about the 1st of March the bean and corn ratio has been collapsing with a huge collapse in the price today. With new crop corn sharply higher and new crop bean sharply lower.
This report is intentions, farmers intentions as of the 1st of March, but because prices have changed rather significantly, we would believe that this could provide incentive to maybe start thinking about planting a little bit more corn and a little less beans based on the big change in the relationship between corn and soybeans since the 1st of March.
Corn prices broke out above the previous highs, and we posted a new high for the move at 7.53 in July corn.
That keeps the overall long term, intermediate term trend up and also now has turned the short-term trend up as well.
Unfortunately for the close, we closed at $7.33, that’s 20 cents off the highs, but still sharply higher on the day.
Even though we didn’t close at the highs it was still a good day, enough to turn the technical indicators back to the upside.
Both the chart and technical look pretty good following today’s big move to the upside.
Corn prices rallied sharply following the invasion of Russia into Ukraine and since that time the markets have now been chopping back and forth as the market consolidates waiting for additional input.
Last week we reached towards the upper ends of the range, yesterday we pushed down towards the lower end of the range, and today the close is almost exactly in the middle of the sideways range that’s been in pace for nearly a month.
That tells us that the marketplace is patiently waiting for additional input from tomorrow’s stock and acreage report before pushing prices too far in either direction.
That also evidence by the technical indicators where the statistics are dead center in the middle of a neutral range. The market clearly waiting for additional information before making a big move.
Corn prices down sharply, our low today was at 6.95 just 2 cents from the low posted 2 weeks ago at 6.93.
We have discussed that the war is the primary driver right now, that is the war in Russia against Ukraine, and its going to create some very volatile markets.
We’ve mentioned we may see limit up and limit down days, today we did touch limit down as the volatility continues.
The chart certainly looks negative with a large down day, and it’s turned the technical down as well.
As we mentioned often in the recent weeks its day-to-day headlines that will drive market prices. Even if the chart and technical look negative, if we get nay indication of war escalation tomorrow these markets could be sharply higher.
The bottom line is the market does look disappointing from a chart and technical perspective, but we now have prices down near some major chart support.
This is where our uptrend line and our 40-day as well as our previous low all coming into play in a level just below the $7 area.
Corn prices for the third day in a row did not post a new high, a lower high for the third day in a row is starting to hint at maybe a downtrend developing in the short term.
At this time, it just looks like somewhat of a correction because the long-term trend is up and in fact the intermediate term trend is up as well. The slightly lower future market may be just indicating a correction, we will see if the 10 and 20 day moving average hold over the next few days