Quarterly Stocks Report 9-30-2022
Crop Reports
Quarterly Stocks
Corn, which is the final ending stocks, are estimated at 1497 that would be 28 million bushels below the September crop report.
Soybeans expected to come in at 247 bushels, that would be up 7 million bushels from the September crop report.
Wheat estimated to come in at 1795, that would be up 21 million bushels from last year’s September stock.
The trade is not expecting any major adjustments, therefore any large changes in USDA’s number could produce significant market moves.
Soybean Crop Production
Soybeans held steady at 55% good to excellent but that’s below last year and the trend line.
The trend line yield for U.S. soybeans is 52.5%.
Corn Crop Condition
52% good to excellent which is a poor rating compared to last year at 59%.
Clearly the crop condition rating is hinting at a U.S. crop well below trend, the trendline yield is 181 and USDA is projecting 172.5.
USDA Soybean Yield Estimate
Last year the USDA crop estimate from August to September went up from 50 to 50.6 and then to 51.5 in October.
This year USDA lowered the yield from 51.9 in August to 50.5 in September and there is some concern that we could reduce the yield further in October.
Last year an increasing crop gave us weaker prices as we headed towards harvest, this year a declining crop has prices increasing.
USDA Corn Yield Estimate
USDA’s September crop report was issued one week ago, and the markets overall gave us a positive response.
This year 2022 when we look at a chart showing the monthly crop report, USDA lowered their yield from 175.6 to 172.5.
That’s a 2.9-bushel per acre reduction in the September report.
Overall, the report viewed as bullish as it appears the US crop is getting smaller.
The market believes we could drop a little bit further come October.
U.S. Grain Stocks
Corn, soybeans, and wheat added together and when we look at those numbers over the last 20 years, we can see this year’s combined stocks is just over 2 billion bushels.
This will be the tightest going back to the post drought timeframe in 2012-2014.
U.S. Soybean Crop Conditions
Soybeans dropped 1% from 58 to 57% good to excellent that compares to 56% last year.
The soybean rating is below the long-term trend but keep in mind that line also includes the drought year of 2012.
When you look at the bulk of crop years we are at the lower end of the range and USDA is projecting a yield above trend.
Trend line yield is 51.5 bushels per acres and USDA is projecting 51.9.