The market expects global corn stocks to be 300.7 down fractionally from last month.
World soybean stocks at 88.4 down 1.6mmt from last month.
Wheat stocks at 281.5 unchanged from a month ago.
When we look at global stocks compared to a year ago its worth noting that global corn stocks are expected to be up form a year ago while soybean and wheat stocks are expected to be down significantly from a year ago.
Stocks of corn are expected to come in at 7.885bb, up nearly 200 million bushels from last year.
Bean stocks at 1.893bb, up 330 million bushels from last year.
An interesting observation is that if stocks are above the year ago level why are the prices significantly above the year ago as well? Typically, larger stocks would mean lower prices, but keep in mind South American crop losses have not been fully factored in and will result in larger demand and the Russia/Ukraine conflict could also result in stronger demand.
Therefore, it is expected widely by the trade that the demand will be well above the USDA target and our stocks will be lowered over time for both corn and bean.
Wheat stocks at 1.064, down about 250 million bushels from last year as wheat stocks are expected to be down for the 5th year in a row.
Corn stocks are estimated to be 7.885bb, that would be up from March 1st of a year ago by about 200 million bushels.
Bean stocks at 1893 area expected to be up about 330 from last year and wheat stocks at 1054 down about 250 million from last year.
If stocks for corn and beans are up from last year at this time, why is it the prices are well above the year ago level? Well due to drought in South America and the war with Russia, the market believes that US demand will be much stronger in the second half of the marketing year so therefore our ending stock could be at or even lower than the year ago level.
The ag outlook forum from USDA projected corn acres at 92, that would be down slightly from last years and that’s the same estimate that the trade is expecting as well.
In soybeans the outlook forum had 88 million which is up from last year, the trade is looking for 88.8.
The outlook forum USDA had wheat acres at 48 million up for the second year in a row, the average trade guess is 47.75.
As you can see the trade is looking for corn acres to be down slightly from last year, bean acres to be up slightly from last year.
If there’s a surprise it may be in the acreage mix corn versus soybeans but not likely to come in the total amount of planted acreage.
The trade is expecting corn acres to come in around 92 million, that’s down 1.3 million from last year. But its right at the USDA outlook forum numbers that were published in February.
In soybeans the trade is expecting acreage at 88.8 million, that would be up 1.6 million from last year and up 800 thousand from USDA outlook forum number of 88 million.
In wheat the trade is expecting total wheat acres to come in at 47.76, that would be up about a million from last year and down fractionally from the USDA outlook forum.
Bottom line is that the trade is expecting corn, beans, and wheat acres to be up about 1.3 million from last years number and we think that is stretching it, if anything it could be slightly lower.
We are not expecting barrish acreage numbers when it comes to the total combined.
Now the acreage mix could be somewhat of a surprise, more corn, less corn, more beans, less beans, but total acreage is not likely to exceed the trade estimate.
Turning to USDA ending stock numbers,
US corn ending stock came in at 1.44 billion bushels, that was slightly below what the trade was expecting and down 100 million bushels from last month.
Soybean ending stocks came in at 285 million bushels, that was above what the trade was expecting, and it was down 40 million bushels from last month. The trade was expecting a larger decline in soybean ending stock.
Wheat ending stock came in at 653 million bushels, that was up 5 million bushels from last month, the trade thought it would be down 15. So therefore, the wheat number was considered slightly negative.
World ending came in above expectations, world corn stocks at 301 were 1.4 million above trade expectations. Global soybean stocks at 90, 1.1 above the trade expectations and global wheat at 281.5, 3.5mmt above what the trade was expecting.
Bottom line world ending stocks did come in above expectations and considered lightly negative in todays report.
