Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today bouncing back from sharply lower prices earlier this morning.

Grain Market News

Winter Wheat Crop Conditions

We can see the improvement on this chart from the lows in late April.

The crop is still rated relatively low, well below average.

The 34% good to excellent is a little above last year.

Corn Crop Conditions

Corn came in at 69% good to excellent.

That is slightly below last year’s rating at 73% but very close to the 20-year average.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Mostly upper 80s and low 90s across the entire U.S. corn and bean belt.

These temperatures are not extreme, but they are much warmer than average for this time of year.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

We have gotten a little bit of rain in southwestern Minnesota, west of the Des Moines area, and southwest of Kansas City.

Much of the Delta, eastern belt area, into central Iowa has seen no rain.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

Some very nice rains in southwest Minnesota and somewhat in the west of Des Moines area.

Much of northern Missouri, eastern half of Iowa, much of Illinois, and Wisconsin has seen very little to no rain.  

Topsoil Moisture

Topsoil Moisture

U.S. Radar

There are a few showers in Missouri, Illinois, and northeast South Dakota. None of these are widespread.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows the eastern belt expecting little to no rain over the next week.

With temperatures near 90 expected through Monday we are going to see additional rapid loss of soil moisture.

Current conditions are much dryer than normal for this time of year.

Outlook

Our 6–10-day forecast shows the above normal temperature and below normal precipitation.

Again, for about 60% of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

The best rains and cooler temperatures out in the far southwestern area, not for the heart of the belt

May Corn Chart

Corn prices were sharply lower this morning, but we did close in the upper half of the range.

We were still lower on the day, but we were able to bounce back nicely.

It’s going to be the weather that will determine if this market tries to retest the 5.37 or if we continue to push lower.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also made a new low this morning down to $11.30.

Beans did turn around and bounced, closing at 11.46 so we did close 16 cents off the daily low.

It was still a lower day with the chart still pointed downward.

Technical indicators are still oversold.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile, going up, down, up, down.

The fact that wheat was able to do a reversal and close higher today was enough to hook the technical.

Wheat closed at 7.91.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today as the trade is adding some risk premium based on a warm, dry forecast for next week.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the last week we have virtually seen no precipitation in the belt.

The best rains have been falling in the southwestern plains into Texas and Oklahoma.

In the heart of the belt much of Nebraska, almost all of Iowa, much of Illinois, northern Missouri, southern Minnesota, and most of South Dakota has seen no rain except for a few isolated areas.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar is virtually free of precipitation across most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

There is some rain in portions of western Nebraska and down into Texas and Oklahoma.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Most of the U.S. belt is expecting little to no precipitation.

The light green is less than 1/10^th of an inch.

High Temperatures

In addition, we are going to see temperatures start to ramp up.

The highs next week on Tuesday are mostly in the mid to upper 80s in the heart of the belt.

Those temperatures are not extreme but with a lack of moisture and dirt still showing, which means soil moisture evaporation will be more rapid than it would be later in the summer.

Outlook

The 6-10 day forecast still shows above normal temperatures for most of the belt and the 8-14 day does show some moderation.

The precipitation pattern looks like what has been forecasted all week long.

April 2023 Precipitation

The dryness was considered almost ideal last week for getting planting, field work, spraying, fertilizer, and more done.

 This week has been mostly dry across the belt but now that planting is wrapped up farmers are looking for some rain.

The April precipitation across the entire belt was below normal.

30-Day Precipitation

We have seen a continuation of below normal precipitation for most of the belt.

To get crops planted early you do need to have dryer than normal conditions.

The dryer weather in April to May was considered favorable but now that we are approaching June concerns are increasing for soil moisture.

Soil Moisture

Grain Market News

May Corn Chart

Corn markets are in a steep uptrend off the lows posted last week.

Today’s high was 59 cents above last Thursdays low.

There is no sign of topping action yet but if this market can push towards our downtrend line, technical indicators could be overbought by next week.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices saw a nice rally today with an outside day up.

The fact that we had an outside day up and closed above yesterday’s high is a good signal from a short-term chart perspective, this also turned the technical up.

If we can get just a little bit of friendly news the next target would be 13.83.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile up and down.

We are well below last week’s highs and well above the lows from early May, in fact we are close to the middle of our long-term trading range.

The rain in the plains has certainly put a damper on the wheat market, but European wheat was up sharply today.

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today with uncertainty regarding the debt feeling, somewhat threatening weather, and a 3-day holiday approaching.

Grain Market News

U.S. Drought Monitor

The monitor shows drought still in place in the plains although this drought area especially in the western and southwestern areas is likely going to be reduced due to the rains in the forecast.

Dryness is expanding in the central U.S. including the central portion of the belt.

Drought Monitor Class Change

This map shows this week’s monitor versus last week.

You can see the improvement in the southwestern plains, anything in green or blue is improving and anything in yellow or tan is where drought has increased.

Just in the last week drought has been increasing in the central U.S. including the central belt.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

This shows very little to no precipitation across most of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

The best rains continue to fall in the southwestern plains, that forecast is expected to continue into next week.

High Temperatures

Yesterday’s high temperatures were not extreme but certainly above normal with mid-80s to even low 90s across the heart of the belt.

U.S. Radar

Today’s radar shows more rain in the southwestern plains and just a few isolated showers in portions of southwest Iowa.

Most of the U.S. corn and bean belt is dry.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows mostly dry weather, less than a 1/10 of an inch across the bulk of the belt.

Today the forecast did add a little bit of rainfall in the northwestern belt, its still below normal, but generally a 1/4 to 1/2 inch could fall in portions of eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota.

Outlook

The 6-10- and 8–14-day continue to indicate above normal temperatures for the majority of the belt.

Dryer in the eastern belt and Great Lakes in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day with above normal precipitation in the southwestern plains.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Sales

Corn exports did improve from last week, but they were still a net negative.

This is causing some concern and increasing the probability that USDA will have to lower its corn export forecast.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Sales

Soybeans were up from last week but still disappointing at 115 thousand tons.

This is below the level needed to reach USDA’s forecast but at this time we are on track if we don’t have consistently low reports.

Wheat: Weekly Export Sales

Wheat exports were disappointing but this time of year we typically do see some cancellations at the end of the marketing year.

May Corn Chart

Corn is down in the long term and the intermediate, but the short-term trend has turned up.

Today’s lower trade and lower close did hook the technical indicators which are dead center in the neutral range.

Corn closed at 5.91.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are in a downtrend, the market attempted to challenge or take out the downtrend line the last couple of days.

Today the markets turned around late and made new lows at 11.63 keeping the downtrend intact.

Technical indicators are very oversold, and the weather forecast does look threatening.

Soybeans closed at 13.24.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile with big moves up and down.

We would not be surprised to see whet approach or challenge the $9 level again.

Wheat closed today at 8.18

Questions or Comments

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, weather is still lightly supportive.

Grain Market News

30-Day Precipitation – % of Normal

The majority of the belt has seen below normal precipitation.

Portions of southern southwest Minnesota are an area that had heavier rains as well as some isolated areas.

Soil Moisture

You can see that the western belt is well below normal with soil moisture and now the eastern belt is starting to develop below normal soil moisture.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Unfortunately, there is not much precipitation in the forecast.

From central Iowa, Missouri, through the Delta, into the eastern belt including all of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio is not expecting any rain over the next week.

Outlook

This shows above normal temperatures for almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt with cooler temperatures in the far southwestern plains.

This is not overly concerning but if this pattern would continue into June, then it would become a concern.

Soil Moisture

The dry forecast shows up in the National Weather service.

You can see virtually the entire belt is expecting moisture to decline.

The forecast is slightly threatening.

Grain Market News

Weekly Ethanol Production

Weekly production does show a very small decline from last week down to 983 thousand barrels per day.

Our year-to-date ethanol production is down 2.6%, USDA is estimating down 1.5%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks dropped sharply down to 22.031 million barrels.

Not only is that down significantly from where we were at in late March, but we are also 7.1% below last year’s stock level.

Unleaded Gasoline

Ethanol Swaps

Ethanol Profit Margins

May Corn Chart

Corn made another new high, this chart looks good at this time.

We broke through the 10-day moving average and today we broke through the 20-day moving average.,

Technical indicators look good as well.

Weather will still be the primary driver for prices.

We are still looking at an area between 5.47-.5.37 as a potential target in the near term.

May Soybean Chart

The soybean chart does not look nearly as impressive as the corn chart.

But they still look to be building a base.

Soybeans are challenging overhead resistance, but we have not yet seen a clean breakout to the upside.

If the weather remains somewhat threatening, soybeans could see a bounce.

Overhead resistance at 12.47.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been extremely volatile with KC wheat averaging over a 30-cent daily trading range.

Yesterday’s prices moved up sharply and today’s prices moved down sharply.

Overall, the wheat market continues to be very choppy in the middle of the range that’s been in place back to last November.

Questions or Comments