Closing Market Comments March 15, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, not a bad day of performance considering the sharp losses in the outside markets.

Grain Market News

Crude Oil

When crude oil was down 5.50 per barrel this morning it hit 65.65 per barrel breaking out of the sideways range from November.

Weekly Ethanol Production

This shows 1.014 million barrels per day produced last week.

That’s very close to the level needed for the USDA forecast.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

Stocks of fuel ethanol did increase significantly up to 26.383 million barrels.

That’s a new record for this week of the year and slightly above the year ago.

NOPA Soybean Crush

Soybean crush at 165.4 is up from last year and near the record for February.

Our year-to-date crush is a little bit below last year while USDA is protecting for it to be a little above at the end.

Grain Market News

Black Sea Corn Shipments

The timeframe shows about 11.5mmt of corn shipped out of Ukraine to all destinations.

It also shows China shipped 3.5mmt or 30% of the Ukrainian shipments, about 50% went to the European Union, and 20% to all other countries.

3-Day Snowfall Forecast

In areas where it is dry enough planting is beginning in the delta region and some soybeans in extreme southern Illinois.

For most farmers the planting season is just beginning in the delta and as we approach April it will begin in the southern belt, mid-April the central belt, and then the end of April in the northern belt.

Unfortunately for the northern and northwestern belt more snow is projected in area that don’t need it.

The amount of snow on the ground and the fact that the forecast continues to call for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation needs to be monitored.

NWS Active Alerts

Storm watch primarily in the northern plains and northwestern belt where many areas have snow on the ground still.

S.A. 30-Day Precipitation vs Normal

We mentioned northwestern Brazil is about completed with planting, that state of Mato Grosso is the largest corn and soybean producing state.

Safrinha corn planting is behind in central Brazil where rainfall is significantly above normal.

Extreme southern Brazil is too dry.

May Corn Chart

Corn prices look good from the cart perspective.

From a chart perspective corn may be interested in attacking some lows from December at 6.36 and multiple lows at 6.48 from January.

May Soybean Chart

Soybean price dropped to new lows today down to 14.80 on the May chart.

The bad news is the market is still in a short term downtrend within the overall sideways range.

Good news could be we are getting close to chart support and technical indicators are close to oversold.

No sign of bottoming action from the chart or technical.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have the trend up making new highs for the move.

The wheat market may be interested in approaching an area where ethe 20 and 40 day moving average is.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments March 13, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, funds were liquidating longs in corn and soybeans while buying back shorts in wheat.

Grain Market News

30-Day Precipitation

Keep in mind last week USDA lowered the Argentina corn crop by 7mmt and lowered the bean crop by 8mmt.

The drought conditions are severe, ongoing, and additional crop losses in Argentina are expected.

Precipitation has been below normal to no precipitation.

High Temperatures

Combine those dry conditions with high temperatures across nearly all the belt over the weekend.

There is some rain in the forecast specifically in the southwestern portion of Argentina this week.

Grain Market News

Temperature Outlook

The temperature forecast for the 6-10 day is below normal for the entire central U.S. continuing in the 8-14 day forecast as well.

Combined with cooler than normal temperatures have wet conditions in the south where they are trying to plant, dryer in the great lakes in the 6-10, but most of the belt is above precipitation in the 8-14.

U.S. Snow Depth

Generally, about 2 feet of snow in the eastern Dakotas and southern Minnesota.

In many of these areas it will take a couple of weeks for this snow to melt if not longer.

We need to start seeing temperatures warming up soon if we are going to have a normal planting season.

U.S. Snowpack

Most of the Dakotas and Minnesota primary growing region have any where from 4-6 inches of moisture in that snowpack with some areas seeing 8-10 inches of moisture.

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn inspections are final improving seasonally at 39.3 million bushels.

That’s the best number this marketing year but still a little below the weekly total of 50 million bushels needed.

We will need to see some totals above the 50 million bushels mark in the March-June timeframe if we are going to reach USDA target.

Corn is down 37.1% from a year ago and USDA is projecting we will be down 22% at the end of the marketing year.

Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean exports are declining seasonally right now.

This week exports are at 22.7 million bushels, not a big number but it is above the 17.6 million needed weekly.

Our year to date exports are up 2.5% from a year ago, USDA projected exports will be down 7.8%.

Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections

Wheat down sharply from the previous couple of weeks at 9.1 million bushels.

That is only about half the level needed to reach the USDA forecast.

Our year-to-date exports are down 2% with USDA expecting wheat to be down 3.1%

May Corn Chart

Corn had an outside day up taking out Fridays high giving us a light positive on the chart, but we turned around closing lower.

Technical indicators oversold and we are seeing a little divergence which is potential for bottoming action.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans have been extremely choppy going back to December.

The market has traded up and down in a choppy, sideways range for the last 3 months.

This market did make a new low today at 14.91.

This indicates this market may be in a position to test the multiple lows in the 14.70s.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also showing signs of potential bottoming action with an outside day up today.

Russia says it will allow the Ukrainian shipping corridor to be extended by 60 days.

Bottom-line is the wheat prices did close higher today and looked good at the close.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments March 10, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today, corn and wheat recovering from recent sharp losses while spread trading pushed soybeans lower.

Weekly Price Summary

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Monthly Ending Stocks

U.S. Corn Ending Stock

U.S. Soybeans Monthly Ending Stocks

U.S. Soybeans Ending Stocks

U.S. Wheat Monthly Ending Stocks

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks

U.S. Grain Stocks

Grain Market News

Fridays High Temperatures

It does not look like Argentina will get much relief until the middle of next week.

In the 90s and low 100s into Sunday and there is no precipitation for the corn and soybean belt.

At this time, it’s getting late enough in the crop year where it’s going to be difficult to see any significant improvement in the estimates especially with weather remaining threatening.

3-Day Snowfall Forecast

We got snow this week and there is more snow in the forecast for the northern plains where they don’t need it.

Another 4-8 inches of snow in the southern portion of the northwestern belt and a foot or more possible from the northern plains of North Dakota into southern Canadian prairies.

These areas already have a lot of snow on the ground and in fact there is blizzard warnings in some places.  

May Corn Chart

Corn prices did make a new low this morning down to 6.06, so that is negative on the chart, but we did close at 6.17.

The sharply lower prices, in fact at 6.06, down 80 cents from where we were at in January and February.

Technical indicators are oversold and hooking today on the rally.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans had funds sold today due to reverse spreading pushing beans lower on the day.

Overall beans remain somewhat near the middle portion of the range in place back to late December.

Bullish news could push us near the upper end and bearish news near the lower end.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat made new lows today down to 7.72 on the May chart.

We closed today at 7.98, that was up 26 cents off the low.

That is a huge reverse and could be indicating some bottoming action.

We would not be surprised to see wheat rally up into the overhead resistance in the low 8.40s.

Questions or Comments

Closing Market Comments March 9, 2023

Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mostly lower today.

Grain Market News

Corn Export Sales

Corn had a good day overall, 1.412mmt is what the sales show.

We need 629mmt to reach the target.

This may be one of the first weeks that we are finally competitive with Brazil.

Soybean Export Sales

There wasn’t any positive news in the soybean export sales.

We had a net cancellation which means there was more cancelled than what we had sold.

USDA did increase our target slightly yesterday in the WASDA report up about 25 million bushels.

That would still be down 6.6% compared to a year ago through.

Wheat Export Sales

Wheat exports had 267 thousand which is less than what we needed at 326.

USDA says we ill be down 3.1% from last year and currently we are down 6.4%.

Weekly Ethanol Production

1.010 barrels is what we seen this week.

That is less than the 1.023 barrels needed to reach the UDSA target.

This week would be down 1.8% versus a year ago. Year to date back to September to now, we are down 3.2%.

Weekly Stocks of Fuel Ethanol

25.3 million barrels of stocks this week in storage.

That is up 2/10 of a percent from last year.

May Corn Chart

Corn closed at 6.11 today.

Chart support coming in the 6.05 area.

May Soybean Chart

Soybeans closed at 15.10 today.

Soybeans are developing a downward trend right now.

Longer term this market may try to drift lower.

Chart support will come in around the 14.77 area.

May KC Wheat Chart

Wheat closed at 7.77.

Wheat went above $9 and then pulled back into the 8-8.07 area and then broke through that which opens the doors to going back to the 7.73 area.

Questions or Comments