To best view these results, hold your mobile device horizontally and zoom using 2 fingers.
First of all, let’s take a look at Minnesota and Iowa numbers. Iowa came in with a 179.8 bushel per acre yield versus 188.8 one year ago. That is down 4% from last year’s Pro Farmer tour. USDA is currently projecting that the Iowa corn yield will be down 7%. The Minnesota yield came in at 191.5 bushels per acre versus 182.3 a year ago. The Pro Farmer number is up 5% from a year ago. USDA is projecting the Minnesota yield to be down 5% from a year ago.
In general, most of the states came in at or even above the USDA’s estimates when we look at the change from a year ago. Keep in mind,these are the areas that Pro Farmer surveys. Pro Farmer came out with its national corn yield this afternoon at 167.1 bushels per acre. That is down 2.4 bushels per acre from USDA’s August crop estimate. When we look at the change from a year ago, Pro Farmer estimated 167.1 versus last year’s estimate of 170.2, which is down 1.8%. USDA is currently estimating that the US corn yield will be down 2.9%. Depending on whether you are a bull or a bear, you could try to turn these numbers in your favor. The yield at 167.1 bushels per acre on the surface looks to be a little bit supportive. The fact that it is only down 1.8% from last year’s Pro Farmer tour makes it look just a little bit negative.
To best view these results, hold your mobile device horizontally and zoom using 2 fingers.
Turning to the pod counts from the Pro Farmer crop tour, the Iowa tour found 1,093 pods per 3 x 3 foot square compared to 1,224 last year. That is down 11% from a year ago. USDA’s estimate of 56 bushels per acre is down 7% compared to last year’s yield of 60.5. The Iowa pod counts are actually considered lightly friendly. Minnesota pod counts of 1,020 compare to 1,108 last year, and are down 8%. USDA’s estimate at 49 bushels per acre is down 7% compared to 52.5 bushels per acre a year ago . So, generally pod counts in the Pro Farmer crop tour are indicating smaller yield potential than USDA. Pro Farmer’s national soybean yield which was issued this afternoon came in at 48.5 bushels per acre. That is down from last year’s yield at 49.3, but it is only down 1.6%. USDA’s estimate for the US soybean yield is 49.4 bushels per acre, which is down 5.2% from last year’s final yield. Pro Farmer’s estimate at 48.5 bushels per acre may be a little bit bigger than the trade was expecting based on the lower pod counts.
The USDA final corn and bean yields are somewhat of a reversal from what we saw in the state by state analysis from Pro Farmer. State by state it sure looked like the Pro Farmer information for corn was a little bit negative and soybean information was positive. Looking at their final yield estimates, the Pro Farmer final yield for corn looks a little bit supportive and a little bit negative for beans. In either case, we don’t see the Pro Farmer numbers as providing any type of shocker or any major new development now that all the information has been gathered.