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Here are some private analyst estimates that have come out in the last few days. First of all, our trend line yield for this year for corn is at 170.7. A month ago, the average trade guess was looking for corn yield of 166. USDA came in on the August 10th report at 169.5. This was well above the average trade guess but slightly below trend. USDA’s production estimate was 14.153 billion bushels.
A week ago, Pro Farmer came out with its crop estimate for corn at 167.1 for a national yield. Production came in at 13.953 billion bushels. That would be down 200 million bushels from USDA’s production estimate in the month of August.
FC Stone’s yield estimate came in at 166.9 yesterday. It is very close to Pro Farmer. Production was very close as well at 214 below USDA.
Allendale came out with their estimate today. That survey was done in the second half of August. They came in with a yield of 166.7. That gives a production of 13.92 billion bushels. That would be down 233 million bushels from USDA.
Today, Informa Economics came out with a bigger number of 169.2 for a national yield. Production came in at 14.123. That is very close to USDA. In fact, it is just 30 million bushels below USDA’s August crop report estimate.
As you can see from these estimates, many of the private analysts are looking for crop coming in just slightly below USDA’s estimate from a month ago.
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Taking a look at a similar table, but for the US soybean crop, trend line yield this year came in at 48 bushels per acre. The average trade guess going into last month’s crop report was 47.4 and USDA came in at 49.4. This was 2 bushels per acre above the average trade guess. Production came in at 4.381 billion bushels in USDA’s report. That yield and production estimate were above the average trade guesses and was seen as bearish last month.
Since that time, Pro Farmer came out with its estimate at 48.5 bushels per acre for a national yield and a production of 4.331.
FC Stone came in with a yield estimate yesterday of 49.8 bushels per acre. That was even slightly above USDA’s August report estimate. Production came in at 4.418.
Allendale released its late August survey today with a yield of 47.1 and production of 4.179.
Informa Economics released their estimate today at 49.4 bushels per acre, which is right in line with USDA’s yield and virtually the same production as well.
If we look at our production estimates, we can see that some estimates are at or just slightly above USDA, with others a little bit below USDA’s estimate. We would not be surprised when the average trade guess comes in that we will be looking at a yield just slightly below USDA’s August crop report. We will see those guesses in about a week.