Today’s Prices

Corn and bean prices were firm today, specifically corn. Some support from a hot, dry forecast for at least another 4-5 days and in addition, relatively small production forecasts from Pro Farmer gave corn support today.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures 8-23-20

Last week we discussed the dryness on almost a daily basis as it was developing. Now we have some heat moving in, 90’s from SD, southwest MN, IA, and down the MS River valley. West of that line temperatures in the 90’s and mid 90’s and then as we get into the western plains even some 100’s. Additional temperatures in the 90’s are expected for much of the heart of the belt now through Thursday. The high temperatures will cause stress to be even more acute, especially in those dry areas.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the past 7 days we’ve seen some pretty good rainfall in ND and MN and far northcentral IA. We also got some decent rains in portions of southern IN, the OH valley, and along the Delta. But the rest of the belt was dry over the past 7 days and we do believe crop conditions are likely to be 2-3% lower in this afternoon’s weekly update from USDA.

14-Day Observed Precipitation

Areas that will be affected most by the heat and dryness are the areas in blue as we haven’t gotten much rainfall over the last couple of weeks. Much of the central corn and bean belt has had less than an inch of rain over the last couple of weeks and some of the areas that did get decent rains in central where accompanied by the derecho winds that were over 100 mph. Overall crops are seeing some late season stress and some late season losses giving the market some support.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

There is relief on the way, today’s 7-day precipitation forecast does show moisture coming up out of the Gulf of Mexico from a couple of tropical systems. The eastern belt is expecting 1-2” of rain. The Delta is expecting 2-4” of rain, even IA is expecting rain. Rains of 0.25-0.5” expected in the western and northwestern portions of IA and around an inch expected in eastern IA. Additional rains are expected for the Dakota’s and MN. Overall, this rainfall would be very beneficial. Maybe not enough in NE, IA, and portions of SD but this is a pretty good area of rain. We have not seen a path that looks like this for a few weeks.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The long term forecast is very similar to what was forecasted all week last week and that is not just a rain event but a pattern change is expected to start developing late this week, through the weekend, and into next week. With that in mind, temperatures expected to be at or below normal for most of the belt in the 6-10 day and below normal for most of the belt in the 8-14 day with above normal precipitation for the entire central U.S. corn and bean belt for the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts. If this forecast would verify, soil moisture would begin to be be replenished. Soybeans would have additional moisture for the final filling stage. It’s a little late but it won’t hurt. The problem is that we’ve all seen some irreversible damage over the last couple of weeks and it will continue for another 3-5 days.

Grain Market News

Pro Farmer Crop Tour –Corn Yield

Pro Farmer Crop Tour – Bean Pods

Pro Farmer History

December Corn Chart

Corn prices rallied up and are challenging the highs that were posted last week at $3.46 per bu. Technical indicators are in the overbought range but no sign of topping. The next level of overhead resistance would be up around the $3.50 level. That is where our long-term downtrend comes into play and that would provide the next level of overhead resistance if we can push a little bit higher over the next couple of days. Current chart support would be the double bottom around the $3.50, about a dime below where we closed today.

November Soybean Chart

Not a lot for the beans on the chart. We made a new low for the move overnight, last night, pushed a little bit higher today and then turned around closed about unchanged. This really doesn’t have a big impact on charts. It still looks like the chart is a little toppy. Technical indicators are still showing a little bit of topping as well. Beans are sitting near a small gap that was left in the chart about a week ago. That should provide initial chart support if the market pushes lower with overhead resistance last week’s high at $9.19.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices pushed sharply higher making a new high early today at $4.49 and then turned around and closed at $4.35, $0.14 off the daily high. Somewhat of a disappointing day and a key reversal, made a new high for the move and turned around and closed below Friday’s low. That is not a very good sign on the wheat chart. One day doesn’t make a trend but a key reversal to the downside in wheat today, also hooking the technicals not a very good sign from the chart and technical indicators for wheat today.