Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mostly higher today as tight fundamentals continue to be the primary supportive item.
Grain Market News
Brazil: Two Wk Precip Forecast
The primary Brazilian growing area is circled in red and very good rains expected across most of central and northern Brazil. The lightest blue shade is 55mm, about 2” with up to 4” indicated for much of central and northern Brazil over the next 7 days. The right side shows week 2 precipitation. In the second week of the forecast less rain in the north but central and southern regions could get some fairly good rains. This overall is a pretty favorable forecast. There may be some dry pockets that remain like in extreme southern Brazil but the vast majority of Brazil would be in pretty good shape if this forecast verifies. We do not view Brazil’s forecast threatening at all.
Argentina: Two Wk Precip Forecast
In Argentina very little rain is expect over the next 7 days. Some light rains forecasted for northeast and far northwest. But the bulk of the Argentina’s growing region expected to get trace amounts over the next 7 days. The second week of the forecast does show some improvement in rain in the northeastern areas but central, southern, southwestern Argentina could remain relatively dry. Therefore, if this forecast verifies about half of Argentina’s growing region could see some moisture stress over the next couple of weeks.
South America Production Estimates
In both Brazil and Argentina, the trade estimate is lower than USDA’s estimate for both corn and soybeans. If the trade is correct that would lower the amount of exports out of South America which could mean additional exports out of the U.S.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Supply & Demand
U.S. Soybean Supply & Demand
U.S. Wheat Supply & Demand
March Corn Chart
Corn prices made a new high for the move up to $4.44, a new high close for the move. That keeps the long-term uptrend intact. We’re trading above all of our moving averages and they’re all pointed upward as well. This provides fairly solid support around the $4.30-$4.35 area. Technical indicators are getting into the overbought range so we’ll want to watch that carefully but as of today the chart looks very good, pushing into new highs and there’s no sign of a top in the corn market based on the chart and technical indicators.
March Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also made a new high today, new high close. This keeps the long term uptrend intact and like corn, we’re trading above all of our moving averages and have an uptrend in place and even though technical indicators are overbought, there is no sign of topping action yet. This market is likely to find fairly strong support in the $12 area on any pullback at least in the near term.
March KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices had a nice day, closing higher on the day with support from corn and beans. Wheat prices look as though they’re interested in challenging the previous highs in the $5.86-$5.88 area. Technical indicators are not yet in the overbought area so wheat from a chart and technical perspective does look like it has some additional upside potential.