Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today as the corn market is taking a breather following multiple new contract highs over the last couple of weeks.
Weekly Price Summary
Grain Market News
4” Soil Temperature 4-16-21
This map shows the 4” soil temperatures as of this morning. Soil temperatures in the 30’s across the northwestern third of the belt, low 40’s across the central belt and upper 40’s for the rest of the belt. With the exception of the Delta and deep south, virtually none of the U.S. corn and bean belt has temperatures that would be considered ideal for getting corn planted. Therefore some farmers are choosing to be a little bit patient since we’re still in the middle of April.
Low Temperatures Forecast 4-20-21
Unfortunately the forecast looks cold for the next week or even a little bit longer. Low temperatures in the 20 forecasted for next week April 20th and 30’s through most of the rest of the belt. These aren’t damaging temperatures but it surely would cause the farmers to be patient or at least a little bit slow when it comes to putting corn seed in the ground.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Overall soil conditions are pretty good. The eastern belt has plenty of rain this spring and they look to be drying out somewhat over the next 7 days. The central and western belt has had pretty good moisture and soils are said to be in very good conditions in much of the western belt. Unfortunately, the northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies are still looking at severe drought conditions and that does not look to be changing in the weeks to come.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
The 6-10 day forecast shows cool temperatures across the entire central U.S. As we moved out to the 8-14 day, cool in the eastern belt but starting to warm in the western belt. As far as precipitation is concerned, much of the U.S. corn and bean belt looks to be below normal in the 8-10 day with the western belt remaining below average in the 8-14 day. Overall, the forecast does not look overly threatening and we should be able to get some decent planting done in the central belt. But one thing that is worth noting is the dry conditions that will continue in the northwestern belt and northern Plains and that is something that will need to be monitored.
Long-Lead Forecast: May
Yesterday’s long-lead forecast for May shows normal temperatures in the far northern belt, above normal in the central and southern belt. Precipitation looks to be above average in the Great Lakes and eastern belt and above average in the western belt. Only the southwestern Plains indicating dry conditions in May. Again, this is a long term outlook and is certainly subject to change.
Long-Lead Forecast: Jun-Jul-Aug
The long-lead forecast for June, July, and Aug is calling for above normal temperatures for the entire U.S. with about average precipitation expected in the eastern belt, below average in the northwestern belt and northern Plains. This forecast is not overly threatening for the bulk of the belt but the far northwestern belt and northern Plains is going to have to be monitored since they’re already in drought conditions and the forecast is looking warmer and drier as we head into the summer. So again, something the marketplace will be monitoring very closely.
U.S. Corn Yield
One of the biggest factors for prices going into this years growing season will be the weather. Does the weather during the heart of our growing season allow for trendline yields? Above? Or below? The long-term yield is shown in the red line. The narrow red lines are 5 bu above or below trendline yield. Anything within 5 bpa of a trendline yield would be considered somewhat of a typical season. On occasion we can produce yields that are 5 bu above or when weather is threatening we can produces yields that are well below 5 bpa. USDA’s Ag Outlook forum is shown in yellow and is estimating a trendline yield of 179.5 bpa fore a national yield this year. If we do produce a 179.5 bpa yield that would be an all-time record for the U.S. corn crop.
U.S. Soybean Yield
The long-term trend shown in the dark blue line and 2 bpa above or below would be considered a fairly normal crop. USDA is projecting a yield for this year’s soybean crop at 50.8 bpa which is very near the long-term trendline yield and that would be the second largest yield ever. Keep in mind, that 5 years ago we produced a crop of 52 bpa.
Grain Market News
May Corn Chart
Corn prices posted a new contract high with May corn hitting $6.01 in yesterday’s trade. Prices did back off today but we’re still in an uptrend. The long-term uptrend is pointed upward. The intermediate-term trend is upward but a little more gradually. The short-term uptrend is again, a sharper uptrend. There is no doubt the current trend in corn is up and we’re trading above all of our major moving averages which would likely provide support on any pullback going forward.
May Soybean Chart
Soybean prices have turned higher this week and the technical indicators have turned higher. No sign of topping action as the markets moved higher over the last 4 days. The long-term trend in beans is an uptrend. The intermediate trend is sideways as USDA has left ending stocks unchanged since the February crop report at 120 mb. The short term trend has turned up within our overall sideways range. Anything within this range is fair game as we move through the next week or so.
May KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices have had a good week, in fact, have rallied $0.63 over the last couple of weeks. Wheat prices were considered under valued as we pushed down to $5.53 in the May contract but they very quickly turned higher, pushing wheat back up above the $6 mark. The rally this week has pushed wheat prices back above our moving average, above the 10, 20, and 40-day. We may have corrections after a big move in a short period of time but overall, it does look like this wheat market wants to head towards the $6.25-$6.40 level as we move through April.