Grain prices finished mixed today. Corn and soybean stocks remain very tight but there wasn’t much in the way of fresh, bullish news to feed the bull today.
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Most of the rain for the past 7 days has fallen in the eastern belt, southern belt, down into the Delta and deep south. We did see a narrow strip of rain that developed in northeast CO that pushed through NE, northwest IA, and into MN. Some areas within this strip did get 0.5-1.0” of rain. Unfortunately, much of IA still remains dry and much of the northern Plains remain dry as well. We did get a little bit of rain, 0.25-0.5” portions of the Red River Valley of the north. This is not a drought breaking rain but they’ll take anything they can get.
30-Day Precipitation – % of Normal
The 30-day precipitation shows the northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies remain in a dry trend. IA and southern MN return to dry conditions and we’re starting to dry out again in portions of northeast NE, southern SD. But it is wroth noting, there were some very positive developments where portions of northeast SD and the Red River Valley got some rain. Portions of southeast, southcentral NE got some rain. Portions of western IL and eastern MO got some good rain. There were some rains during the month of April but IA and adjacent areas of MN, WI, and NE is an area that missed out on rains during the month.
High Temperatures – Sat 5-1-21
Weekend temperatures ramped up to near record level highs in southern MN where 90’s were see in portions of the northwest belt on Saturday. Most of the rest of the belt saw temperatures in the 80’s with a few 70’s in the far east.
High Temperatures – Sun 5-2-21
Yesterday’s high temperatures shows 80’s again through the heart of the belt. A little cooler to the northwest and into the Delta where clouds and rain were seen on Sunday. Above to much above temperatures would typically be bullish in June, July, and Aug during the growing season but in early May, above normal temperatures allow for soils to warm up and germination if soil is present. So the warmer temperatures in general were beneficial although the extremely dry areas would love to see a rain so they could benefit from the warmer soil temperatures.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Looking ahead, the forecast shows most of the accumulating rains in the southern and eastern blet while the northern Plains into the northwestern belt remain pretty dry. There may be some scattered light rains, but nothing that would be considered a drought breaker.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
As we look ahead to the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast, there is some promise for moisture. The U.S. model which this the wetter model right now, shows most of the U.S. corn and bean belt including the northern Plains above normal precipitation in the 6-10 and 8-14 day. Unfortunately for farmers in the north where they would love to see some warm temperatures, below normal temperatures in the 6-10 and the 8-14 day which takes us from May 8th through May 16th.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Last week’s inspections of corn leaving our ports for exports was 84.2 mb. We only 56.9 mb to reach USDA’s export forecast and that fact that China still has a lot of corn on the books that has not yet shipped and we believe will ship means our exports are likely to remain well above USDA’s target for the next couple of months.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybean export inspections very disappointing, marketing year low at 5.2 mb. That’s the 4th week in a row that exports have come in below the level needed to reach USDA’s estimate. We need about 14.2 mb shipped weekly to reach USDA’s estimate. The last few weeks have been disappointing but we do believe we’re going to see some 15-25 mb totals as we get deeper into the crop year and Brazil’s exportable surplus begins to shrink.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat export inspections came in at 18.7 mb. That was well below the level needed to reach USDA’s export forecast. It does appear exports will fall short of USDA’s estimate in the wheat market. The one thing that is worth noting is that U.S. food assistance, donation, and aid does not show up in some of the weekly export inspection numbers and if that was much larger than normal we could still come close to USDA’s number. Again, we believe wheat exports will fall short by 10-15 mb from USDA’s current export estimate.
July Corn Chart
July corn futures posted a new high for move up to $6.98 earlier this morning. We did close at $6.79 so almost 20 cents off the daily high. But it was still an up day and the chart is still pointed upward in the corn chart. We left a very small gap, about a $0.75 of a gap. We wouldn’t be surprised to see that gap try to be filled over the next couple of days. Current overhead resistance would be at today’s high at $6.98. chart support is at last weeks at $6.29.
July Soybean Chart
Soybean prices did not make a new high today and then closed somewhat disappointing, down about 10 cents. The chart looking very choppy for beans. We’ve carved out a range between $14.90-$15.74 over the last week. If we cannot rally tomorrow we wouldn’t be surprised to see prices come down to the $14.44 level where we have overhead resistance from a number tops over the past couple of months. We also have our blue line up trending line and a couple of our moving averages all coming into play at $14.50 or just a little bit below. That should provide pretty good support if this market moves lower over the next week or two.
July KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices look a lot like soybeans in that we did not take out the highs and we closed lower on the day. Wheat has overhead resistance at last week’s high $7.41. Chart support at Friday’s low $6.82. But we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market test the double top that we saw in the $6.60 range over the next week or so. That’s about 20-30 cents below where we’re trading.