Closing Market Comments June 30, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished sharply higher to limit higher today as USDA produced bullish numbers for Stocks and Acreage.

Grain Market News

Quarterly Stocks: June 1, 2021

2021 Planted Acreage

Grain Market News

14-Day Observed Precipitation

Much of the central U.S. corn and bean belt has received good rains, 2-4” with some areas seeing 5” plus. And then, an area in MO in purple where they received 10-15” of rain. There are even a few places where they’ve received 15” plus over the last 2 weeks. And these areas especially where you see is pink are areas where flooding is a concern.

Rivers in Flood Stage

This map is from NOAA and shows rivers in flood stage. Northern MO is having the biggest issue but central IL and into MI also having some issues with flooding.

NWS Active Alerts

The green colors are various degrees of flood watching, warnings, and flash flood watches and warnings. The pink, orange, and browns are related to heat: heat warnings, heat advisors, etc.

Yesterday’s High Temps 6-29-21

Temperatures yesterday were pretty nice temperatures with mostly 80’s in the central corn and bean blet. We did see some low and mid 90’s in the OH Valley and then the extreme heat in the Pacific northwest. Some of that temperature is expected to inch it’s way to the east with a lot of 90’s and even 100’s in the Dakota’s.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast did add some moisture for the Dakota’s and MN but generally a drier trend for the northern and western belt over the next 7 days. But it is worth noting, weather models have added a little bit of rain in portions of the Dakota’s and western MN with most of this precipitation showing up next week on Tuesday and Wednesday.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show that threatening weather for the northwestern belt. Northern and western belts look warmer and drier over the next two weeks and that is where the threat is. As we look at the southern and eastern belt down into the Delta, cooler and more rainfall is expected. It’s going to be a story of the “Haves and Have Nots”.

Predicted Soil Moisture Anomaly Change

This map shows the predicted soil moisture change over the next 2 weeks. If you draw a line from KC to Chicago, north and west of that line we’re expecting soil moisture to decline. South and east soil moisture should remain steady or even increase.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices exploded to the upside today, up the limit and closing limit up at $5.88. That is 74 cents above the lows posted last Thursday when the Supreme Court and biofuels stories hit the wires. The chart certainly looks better. The technicals are pointed upward. All indications from a chart and technical perspective that this market may be looking to re-test the highs in the $6.30 type range.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also exploding to the upside today with Nov beans closing 90 cents higher. The chart is turned up. The technicals are turned up. Based on chart and technical considerations, it looks like beans want to re-test the highs in the $14.60-$14.80 range.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also exploding to the upside, making a new high for the move. Technical indicators pointed upward as well. Wheat is getting very close to the initial objective which is $6.54. If corn and beans do in fact run into weather challenges and markets move higher, then we can start talking about wheat pushing back into the $7 range. Wheat will likely be a follower of the general direction of corn and beans at least for the next couple of weeks.

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