Closing Market Comments July 7, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain markets closed mixed today with the corn market seeing a little bit of additional follow through to yesterday’s limit lower close.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures Tues 7-6-21

The high temperatures map from yesterday shows mostly upper 80’s and low 90’s across the heart of the U.S. corn and bean with cooler temperatures in ND where a cool front had temps in the 60’s.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Over the past 7 days we’ve seen some pretty good rains in SD and southern MN. Not all areas have received rain. We still see pockets that have missed out on rains but nonetheless some pretty good rains have fallen this week with 1-2” seen in some locations.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

There’s a definite line in the northern and northwestern belt where they’ve seen in general less rain than they’ve seen in the eastern and southern belt. These are the areas the need to be monitored as we move towards the middle of July. Anything in green would be less than 2” of rain over the past 30-days and that would be less than half of normal. One additional area that needs to be monitored is the northern portions of the Delta where from northern AK into the MO boothill and extreme southern IL has seen some dryness develop. It’s not a large area and they have pretty good subsoil moisture coming into this dry spell but it is an area that will need to be monitored.

U.S. Radar 7-7-21 at 8am

The cool front that has produced rains in the northwestern belt has pushed on almost to the Mississippi River. East of that cold front is warm sticky, muggy air and they could get scattered showers and thunderstorms. To the north and west of that line, generally cooler and drier conditions are currently in place.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7-day precipitation forecast does show additional rain in the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt with a lot of 1-3” total. In the western and northwestern belt, lighter totals in the Plains. Again, these are the areas that will need to be monitored if we enter into a warmer, drier spell as we head towards the middle of July.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The 6-10 day forecast is hinting at some warmer temperatures, mostly northwest of IA in the 6-10 day but includes most of IA in the 8-10 day. So we see a little bit of heat starting to build up in the second week of the forecast.

Precipitation maps also show that same pattern, drier to the northwest of IA in the 6-10 day and in the 8-14 day as well. The combination of warmer, drier conditions in the northwestern belt will need to be monitored very carefully.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Conditions

Corn crop conditions were able to hold steady at 64% G/E. That compares to 71% G/E last year and the U.S. corn rating is slightly below average for this time of year.

Corn – Change in G/E Rating

Of the bigger corn producing states, OH, KS, WI, MI, and IA all improved. On the downside, MN, IL, CO, and ND all down from last week. Bottom line, states with improving crop conditions offset states with declining crop conditions and the U.S. rating was left steady at 64% G/E.

Soybean Crop Conditions

The Soybean crop rating fell 1% down to 59% G/E. That compares to 71% G/E last year at this time and the soybean crop is also below average for this time of year with its rating.

Soybean – Change in G/E Rating

When we look at the changes state by state, OH, KS, MI, and IA among some of the states that saw improvements while ND, IL, NE, SD, MO, and MN all seeing declines. Bottom line, declining states outweighed improving states and crop conditions fell 1% from 60 to 59% G/E for soybeans.

December Corn Chart

Earlier this morning corn prices did fall to a new low for this move down to $5.19 and that’s a break of nearly a dollar in the last 3 days. Corn has significant chart support down in the lower $5 range and major overhead resistance in the lower $6 range and with prices near the lower end of that range, this is not a place to be making sales in corn.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also falling sharply over the last 2-3 days. One positive item for the soybean chart is that we did not post a new low today. In fact, beans did not trade lower on the day, they were higher all day long. That left soybeans with an inside trading day. We did not take yesterday’s high and did not take out yesterday’s low. Beans have chart support in the $12.50-$13 range. Overhead resistance $14.25-$14.75. A combination of next week’s crop report and weather updates will be the driver for soybeans going forward. It’s worth noting that soybeans are closer to chart support areas than overhead resistance therefore we do not want to be making any sales in soybeans at this time.

July KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices have been very volatile. We’ve generally seen support down in the $5.60-$5.80 range. That’s where we’ve closed the last couple of days. Since we’re closer to the lower end of the range versus the high end, we believe this is a place to sit tight. No sales are being recommended for wheat at this time.

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