Closing Market Comments July 12, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished higher today. USDA did not provide any bullish surprises with the exception of wheat but the market was already oversold going into the report and buyers showed up following USDA’s release this morning.

Grain Market News

U.S. Yield and Production

SA Production and U.S. Wheat Production

U.S. Ending Stocks

Corn Balance Sheet

Soybean Balance Sheet

Wheat Balance Sheet

Grain Market News

High Temperatures Sun 7-11-21

Temperatures yesterday show seasonal to even seasonally cool with a lot of 70’s and 80’s with even a few upper 60’s yesterday. No heat threat at this time in the heart of the belt. There was heat in eastern MT and a lot of heat out west but near term, temperatures very seasonal, in fact, seasonally cool in the heart of the belt.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Near term precipitation, we’ve seen some very good rain in portions of the belt. In fact, 1-3” was common in eastern SD, western IA, extreme southern MN, and northeast NE. All of these areas very much welcoming the rains that have fallen over the last week. Some areas like the Red River Valley of the north, portions of the central and western Plains, and even portions of the Great Lakes did miss out but the heart of the belt and a large portion of the belt did get very good rains over the past 7 days.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

As we look at the 30-day precipitation, the heart of the belt has seen some very good rain over the past 30 days and that includes some excessive rains in MO, southeast IA, central IL, and even into southern MI where they’ve seen excessive amounts in local areas.

Rivers in Flood Stage

Rivers in flood stage as of this morning, from northern MO into west central IL there are a lot of rivers in flood stage due to excessive rains, not just over the weekend, but repeating in some area that saw excessive rains in June and early July as well. We’re also hearing there was severe weather with hail and excessive winds in western IA and eastern NE. That’s very unfortunate in the areas where those severe conditions hit but this event from over the weekend doesn’t not seem to be anywhere close to the severity of the derecho that happen last summer on August 10th.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The 7-day precipitation forecast still showing some pretty good rains over the heart of the belt over the next 7 days. Much of the rain in the northern belt scheduled for late Tues, Wed, into early Thurs while the central and southern belt could see some rain late in the week and into the early weekend.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

It’s the longer term forecast that does show some hint of returning heat to the northwestern half of the belt and that could include most of IA and NE with dryness returning to the northwestern belt including much of IA and NE as well. We have the potential for heat and dryness to return to the northwestern half of the belt in the 6-10 as well as the 8-14 day. And that is part of the reason the grain markets were able to hold support into today’s close.

December Corn Chart

The corn chart in the very immediate near term looks pretty good. Today was an outside day up, closing higher and actually closing near the daily high. That allowed the technical indicators to turn up as well. One day doesn’t make a trend but nonetheless today’s performance was fierily impressive on the daily chart.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also posting some nice gains today, closing near the daily high. The short-term trend has turned upward and that has hooked the technicals as well. But we are still in a pennant formation in soybeans with chart support down around $13 and overhead resistance around $14. Anything within that range is fair game in the near term.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices showed some bottoming action last week and then exploded to the upside today, was enough to turn the technicals up as well. The short-term chart and technicals for wheat look much better. We’ve already achieved the initial overhead resistance which is where our moving average come into play. Now the next level of overhead resistance up around $6.50 where our two-point downtrend comes into play and with the chart and technicals having momentum, don’t be surprised to see the market moving towards that $6.50 level over the next week or so.

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