Closing Market Comments July 22, 2021

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Today’s Prices:

Grain markets are lower today on some of the extended weather models were adding precipitation to the forecast for late next week and into the following weekend. That was enough to push grain prices lower on the day.

US Drought Monitor:

The US Drought Monitor is released weekly, and it comes out on Thursdays.  It does show continuing drought in the northern plains and north western belt and extreme drought conditions in the Pacific Northwest. Areas south and east of a line about Chicago to Kansas City look to be in pretty good shape currently when it comes to soil moisture.

US Drought Monitor Class Change:

Anything in yellows or browns are where the drought has gotten worse and anything in green or blue is where the drought has improved. In the far northern plains and northwestern Midwest we saw areas where the drought has gotten worse but areas of southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska saw some improvement as well as portions of north east Iowa into Wisconsin saw some improvement as well as Kansas.

7- Day Observed Precipitation:

Significant rains fell last week. In fact, soaking rains in some areas but those rains fell on Wednesday last week in the northern belt and therefore the northern belt has seen dry weather already now for week and that could continue for another week if the forecast is correct. Areas that saw less than an inch to an inch and a half of rain the past few weeks will be the quickest to see crop stress return if the forecast is correct and we have another week of warm to hot weather and no moisture.

US Radar:

Today’s US radar shows some very light rain in portions of central Minnesota otherwise the radar for almost the entire US corn and bean belt looks dry again today.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

Today’s 7-day forecast shows rains from eastern Minnesota into the Great Lakes region but most of the plains and central corn belt looks to remain dry and that could event continue into southern portions of the Eastern belt. That should not be a major problem, but we will just have to watch to see if that is something that lingers into the month of August.

6-14 Day Forecast:

Still calling for above normal temperatures and for the most part below normal precipitation. The exception would be in the Great Lakes region. The forecast does look threatening at least in the near term with some signs of possible improvement as we move into the 8-14-day forecast.

Corn Weekly Export Sales:

Corn sales were very disappointing, a net negative 89 thousand tons and that is since China cancelled approximately 3 cargos or 160 thousand tons. Today’s very disappointing weekly export sales number contributed to the morning losses.

Soybeans Weekly Export Sales:

Weekly Soybean Export sales a positive 62 thousand tons. That is virtually nothing, but our needed level is negative, in other words we have already hit and exceeded the sales total, now it is all about shipments for soybeans going forward as we have already sold enough to reach USDA’s target.

December Corn Chart:

Corn prices are still in an uptrend and we did hold key support at least so far where the 10- and 20-day moving averages converge. Today was a disappointing day for the bulls and we need to rebound quickly to prevent a deeper pullback. At least for today, the chart is still pointed upward and the technical pointed upward as well.  Part of the reason for the charts hanging on is the fact that the corn prices did close closer to the daily high than we did to the daily lower.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices were also in an uptrend, but we came down to critical chart support today. Now that level needs to hold to prevent further chart or technically based selling. Today’s lower prices was enough to turn the technical indicators down and so we are getting some mixed signals in the soybeans today. From a bigger picture, we are still close to the middle of our range with an area for buyers at the lower end of the range and an area for sellers at the upper end of the range.

December Wheat Chart:

Wheat prices are also in an uptrend but today was a negative day for wheat as well. It certainly looks like the wheat market has turned over to the downside at least for the short term and it was enough to turn the technical lower as well. Wheat needs to rebound quickly tomorrow to prevent a further pullback which would likely bring us to chart support if we can’t some friendly news. That chart support is at 6.26 and that is about 25 cents below where we closed today.

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