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Grain prices closed mixed today as the weather forecast is not providing a clear bullish or bearish signal.
Grain Market News
High Temperatures Fri 7-23-21
High temperatures last week on Friday, temperatures were in the 80’s in the eastern belt, mostly 90’s in the western belt with some 100’s in the far western Plains.
High Temperatures Sat 7-24-21
Saturday’s high temperatures were in the 90’s across the central U.S. corn and bean belt, 80’s in the far east with 100’s out in the central Plains.
High Temperatures Sun 7-25-21
Sunday mostly 80’s across the central belt. A few 90’s scattered and some 100’s in the northern and southern Plains. Good news for the U.S. crops is that extreme heat for the most part has avoided the central U.S. corn and bean belt.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last 7 days we’ve seen very little to no precipitation in the central belt. Scattered areas in the eastern belt and scattered areas in the Plains have also lack precipitation. We believe the combination of warm to hot temperatures combined with no precipitation in some areas will result in crop conditions slipping 1-2% in today’s weekly update from USDA which will be released later this afternoon.
14-Day Observed Precipitation
The 2-week observed precipitation shows most of the south has seen some pretty good rains. There are some areas that have missed out but the fact that we got good rains earlier in July is leading some analyst to believe crop conditions could be steady or improve 1% in today’s rating. Therefore, some mixed ideas going into today’s weekly crop condition report.
Calculated Soil Moisture
We’ve mentioned on numerous occasions, if you draw a line from about Chicago to KC, north and west of that line they need rain. But south and east of that line, soil moisture is much better and crops are likely doing quite well at this time. It’s this mix between very good crops in the south and east and some stressful condition in the northwest that is leading to different opinions in the overall corn and bean marketplace.
U.S. Vegetation Health Change
This is a map of the change in vegetation health from July 15th to July 22nd. We see part of the heart of the belt seeing mostly brown meaning vegetive health has declined. We see mixed conditions in the far east, northern Plains, and down in the south. It’s the crop conditions in the heart of the belt that are hinting that crop conditions maybe a little lower in today’s crop condition update.
U.S. Radar 7-26-21 1pm
The U.S. radar shows a mostly blanks screen for the heart of the corn and bean belt. A few pop-up showers here and there. This has been the pattern over the last week to 12 days and it looks like it could continue for a few more days.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The 7-day precipitation forecast shows some showers in the WI to Great Lakes region. Those showers are expected over the next 3 days and then as our high pressure slides down to the southern Plains, that clockwise motion could result in some ridge riding showers across IA and neighboring areas. This would be primarily in the Fri-Sat timeframe. It’s these rains through the central belt forecasted for possibly Fri-Sat that has the market starting off lower to start the day.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts still shows heat in the west but less intense in the 6-10 and 8-14 day. Still above normal. The exception would be the Great Lake states in the 6-10 day. The precipitation map still shows below normal but maybe a little better over the next two weeks with better rains forecasted around the Great Lakes. Bottom line, the forecast maybe less threatening than it was over the past week but still does not look to be ideal for growing corn and bean crops.
Grain Market News
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
Today’s weekly export inspections at 40.8 mb. That’s not a very good number and we need to see that number improving as we move through the final 5 weeks of the marketing year.
Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections
Soybean export inspections was not a huge number at 8.8 mb but it was the best number going back to early May. We do expect soybean inspections to be increasing now as we move through July and into August.
Cattle on Feed
One final piece of fundamental news was the cattle on feed report that came out on Friday. Cattle on feed came in at 11.29 mil head. That was down 1.3% from last year. The market was looking for cattle on feed to be down 1% so it was fairly close to expectations.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices pushed lower this morning but they were able to turn around and close higher on the day so some mixed news. The bears like the fact that the market seems to be trending lower. The bulls like the fact we were able to revers and close higher on the day. Technical indicators somewhat sideways, very near a mid-range area. Corn has overhead resistance at the highs posted last week at $5.73. That’s about 25 cents above where we closed today.
November Soybean Chart
Beans consolidating over the past couple of months with a pennant formation with lower highers and higher lows with the trade stuck in the middle of that pennant formation. Beans were also able to reverse and close higher today with overhead resistance at last week’s high at $14.18. That’s about 60 cents above where we closed today.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices probably have the most disappointing looking chart. Chart has turned to the downside with wheat closing lower today while corn and beans closed higher and the technicals have turned down as well. Both chart and technicals, at least in the short term look somewhat negative for wheat. The one positive item was the wheat did come down close to chart support where our 20 and 40-day moving averages come into play and that did hold chart support today.
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