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Grain markets closed mixed today as the weather provides mixed signals. Nearby weather is threatening but the forecast calls for improving conditions by this weekend.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Crop Conditions
U.S. corn crop condition at 64% G/E, down 1% from last week and 8% below last year’s rating at this time. Overall, the U.S. corn crop condition rating would be considered slightly below average and we do expect, if the forecast is correct, conditions could slip another couple percentage points next week to the low 60’s.
Corn – Change in G/E Rating
U.S. Soybean Crop Conditions
Soybean crop conditions rating fell 2% from 60 down to 58% and that compares to 72% last year. Last year’s soybean rating was near record high, above 70%. If our conditions do drop another 2% after this week of hot, dry weather it would certainly be indicating a soybean crop that would struggle to reach trend with conditions well below average for this time of year.
Soybean – Change in G/E Rating
Grain Market News
High Temperatures Monday 7-26-21
Yesterday’s temperatures show the bulk of the U.S. corn and bean belt in the upper 80’s and low 90’s. This is above normal but its not exceptionally hot like we’re seeing out in the northern Plains, Dakota’s, MT or the southern Plains, OK and TX.
State Topsoil Moisture – Short to Very Short
This table shows the topsoil moisture in the short to very short category. The darker the yellow, tan, or brown the shorter the topsoil moisture. In the eastern belt for the most part no real significant moisture challenges and in fact, excessive moisture in IL, IN, MI, and MO are drying out and that is good news in the eastern belt. In the central belt, MN remains dry. That’s been a concern for about the last 2 months in MN. IA has been a little bit of an on again, off again. They got dry in May and then got really good rains at the end of May. Then they got dry at the beginning of June but then got some rain in late June and now they’re starting to dry out again in IA going from 33% short-very short to 53% short-very short this week. Keep in mind, so far this week has been dry in IA and temperatures are warmer by 5-8 degrees versus a week ago. IA could become extremely short of topsoil moisture if rains don’t fall by the end of the week. The Plain states, NE, KS, CO, and OK are starting to see some dryness develop as well. It’s not a severe as the northern Plains but the central Plains will need to be monitored over the next week or so. This chart shows topsoil moisture and it’s a weighted average for the U.S. corn and bean production areas. Last week the moisture was 28% for the corn and bean belt. That has gone to 35% and could go to into the 40’s next week if we don’t get rain.
U.S. Topsoil Moisture
This table shows topsoil moisture over the last 18 years and how its developed through the course of the growing season. This year the U.S was unusually dry in May during planting and that allowed for very good planting conditions and very little prevent plant. Then we got some rain in late May, things improved. Then the soil dried out again in June. Then we got some rain in late June into mid July and this improved. Now we’re starting to dry out again. It’s this roller coaster weather that’s creating the roller coaster prices. At 36% short to very short, we’re one of the drier years we’ve seen since the drought year of 2012 but its not too far off the long term average.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 7 days we haven’t see any moisture in a good chunk of the central U.S. corn and bean belt. Also some areas within the eastern belt have missed out as well as scattered areas within the Plains states as well. ND also seeing some dryness over the last week. For some areas of IA it has been 12 days without rain and they don’t have much rain in the forecast so they’ll go 2 weeks without rainfall. Crop stress is being discussed and rainfall is going to be needed fairly soon to prevent further stress and the possibility of yield reduction in the heart of the corn and bean belt.
Unfortunately, no relief in the immediate near term for most of the belt. There are some very isolated showers in northeast IA and WI today but the bulk of the corn and bean belt dry. This has been the story for the last 12-13 days in that we don’t have much rain with the exception of isolated showers.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast calls for rains finishing up in WI and MI over the next few days and then as high pressure builds a little bit farther to the south, the weather forecasters are expecting to see some ridge riding thunderstorms from SD, eastern NE, and into MO. That could clip portions of IA. This will be very important for these rains to develop and most of the rains on the map for the Plains or western belt are scheduled for a Fri-Sat rain event.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
The longer-term forecast maps are gradually turning a little less threatening. We still have above normal temperatures in the Plains, in fact, most of the belt but not as intense as the past week. Precipitation also a little bit improved with average precipitation expected over the 6-10 day with above normal precipitation in the Great Lakes states, below normal in the central Plains and into the Delta. But overall, this is not as severe, extreme, or as stressful as what was seen over the last week and a half. The forecast as of today did not provide a big bullish story and the markets closed mixed.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices have been extremely volatile for the last 4 months and recently we’ve been consolidating near the middle of the range as the market waits to see if the weather will allow for trendline yields or not.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also extremely volatile, chopping within a range over the past 4 months. And here again, prices have started to consolidate near the middle of the range over the last 2-3 weeks as the market tries to determine if weather will allow crops to produce trendline yields or not. Right now, the hot dry conditions indicating it may be hard to achieve trendline yields for corn and beans.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat also experiencing very choppy trade with prices near the middle of their range over the past 2-3 weeks. All of the grain markets now waiting on additional news, updates on weather before making a move to the upside or downside.
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