Closing Market Comments August 2, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished higher today after a lower start. Most of the strength due to a dry forecast for the corn and bean belt this week.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures Sun 8-1-21

After quite a bit of heat in the western belt last week, temperatures have now moderated following the rains on Friday and Saturday. Yesterday’s high temperatures from Sunday, Aug 1st shows mostly upper 70’s and low 80’s across the majority of the U.S. corn and bean belt.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Rainfall over the past 7 days is a story of the haves and have nots. That is similar to what we’ve been discussing much of this summer. Portions of southeast SD, northwest IA as well as eastern NE got some pretty good rains. WI got some pretty good rains as well. Much of the central and southern Plains missed out on the rain and scattered areas in the eastern belt missed out on the rains as well.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

This map shows July’s precipitation.  Average rainfall for the month of July is 4” or just a little bit better so the color brown would indicate average rainfall. Anything in blue is areas where extreme drought is still in place or extreme dryness at the least. The green areas are where significant dryness and drought is ongoing as well.

30-Day Precipitation % of Normal

This map shows the 30-day precipitation as a % of normal. The northern Plains is still experiencing severe dryness. Pockets in southern MN and IA are dry. A little bit of dryness in portions of eastern belt and then in the southwestern Plains some pretty significant dryness developing due to the heat and lack of rain over the past 30 days. We had seen some areas from SD through portions of NE, IA, MO, and southern IL where they have seen average, above precipitation throughout July. It’s these areas that have received good rains that are going to help offset the severe dry areas in the northwestern office.

60-Day Precipitation % of Normal

If we expand our map out to show that last two months as a percent of normal, if we draw a line from Chicago to KC, north and west of that line has been well below normal. South and east of that line have been well above normal for precipitation so far this summer. Even though the southern and eastern belt may have some very good yields we think the odds are increasing the U.S. yields will be below trend. We don’t the areas of better precipitation can offset the large area of below normal precipitation we’ve seen so far this summer. That also includes the extreme dryness in the far northwestern belt that has really devastate their small grains and wheat crops.

U.S. Radar

You can see today’s radar this afternoon shows virtually no precipitation across the U.S. corn and bean belt.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Unfortunately, there is very little rain in the forecast for the U.S. corn and bean belt for the next 7 days. The exception would be northern MN, central and northern WI and the fact that northern MN and northern WI is primarily pine forest, this forecast is awfully dry for the U.S. corn and bean belt for the next week.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

Above normal temperatures forecasted in the 6-10 day and above normal in the 8-14 day. The Great Lakes and eastern belt could have above normal precipitation and some of that could leak its way westward into areas like IA and southern MN. That will have to be monitored going forward.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Corn export inspections came in at 54.4 mb. With one year left in the marketing year, those record exports seen in the Feb-Jun timeframe have slowed significantly but we’re still on track to reach or exceed USDA’s target.

Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections

Soybean exports were record large in the Oct-Feb timeframe and they have slowed significantly over the last 5 months as Brazil has taken over the leadership globally as far as exports. That will be changing fairly significantly in the weeks and months to come. We’re still on track to exceed USDA’s target.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices are in a pennant formation or a narrowing formation with lower highs and higher lows. This tells us the market is becoming a little more comfortable with current prices given what we know today and is waiting for additional information before making a move towards the upper or lower end of our summer trading range. That long term range is between $5 on the low side and $6.38 on the high side. But recently we’ve been trading between $5.32-$5.73. Right now we’re pretty much right in the middle at $5.59 of the trading range that’s been in place not only in the near term but the last 3-4 months.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices have a very similar pattern, a narrowing or pennant formation. Prices right now are trading in the middle of the range. That range has been $12.40-$14.80 through the course of the summer but more recently we’ve been trading between $13.30 and $14.18, about a 85 cent range with the current prices very close to the middle of our long-term or summer range. The market for soybeans also waiting for additional new before making a move outside of our pennant formation.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat has become the recent leader on not only U.S. losses within our spring wheat crop but also Canadian losses, most talk about significant losses in Russia, and a freeze in Brazil creating losses in their crop as well. Wheat today exploded into new highs for this move. We’ve talked about wheat possibly challenging a consolidation range later this summer between about $6.85-$7.30. We’re now in that range and we’ll be looking for a place to possibly make some additional sales in wheat but no recommendations today.

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