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Today’s Prices
Grain prices were lower today as rains did fall in some key areas of the western belt but losses were limited by areas that missed out on the recent rain.
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
The 7-day observed precipitation map shows some pretty good rains in the western belt and most of this precipitation fell over the weekend from eastern SD, eastern NE through northwestern IA, WI, and southern MN. Some very good rains in key areas fell in the western belt. Also, the southern half of IL got some pretty good rains as well. But it’s also very apparent that there were areas that missed out on the better rains. Portions of the Dakota’s got virtually no rain. Portions of the western Plains, western NE and eastern CO and portions of the southern Plains missed out on rains. The rains were also spotty in the central belt where southeast IA and portions of MO, and western central IL. And the rains in the eastern belt were light although they’re still getting some rains in the eastern belt today.
14-Day Observed Precipitation
This map gives us a better idea of where stress may be taking place on crops. Blue or even white areas have received less than 0.5” of rain over the last 2 weeks and those are the areas that crop stress is very likely taking place at this time. The blue in the eastern belt may not be as significant given they probably have been subsoil moisture to work with and there is also a pocket down in the Delta that has been missing out on rains over the last 2 weeks.
30-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 30 days anything in green and blue is less than 2” over the last month and those areas are very likely seeing significantly crop stress. We see it in the northern Plains, areas of the western Plains, and isolated areas within the belt that have also seen lighter rains over the past month.
High Temperatures: Sat 8-7-21
Temperatures over the weekend did heat up, upper 80’s and low 90’s on most of the belt on Saturday.
High Temperatures: Sun 8-8-21
Yesterday’s high temperatures shows mostly 80’s with a few low 90’s although we’re starting to see some of the heat rebuild in the northern Plains where drought conditions are severe.
High Temperatures Forecast for 8-9-21
High Temperatures forecast for today in the 100’s in the central and southern Plains, low 90’s in the western belt and mid to upper 80’s in most of the eastern belt.
U.S. Radar
This afternoon’s radar at 1pm shows there are still some scattered showers falling in the southern Great Lakes into the eastern belt while most of the western belt is drying out and should remain relatively dry over the next 7-10 days.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The 7-day precipitation forecast shows the drying trend in the northwestern belt, central and northern Plains where very little rain is expected. Additional rains in the eastern belt over the next 24 hours is going to provide some significant rain and then the eastern belt will begin to dry out starting on Tuesday.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast is calling for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for most of the belt. This forecast may not be extremely threatening but it certainly points towards less than ideal conditions as we move through the 2nd and 3rd weeks of August.
Grain Market News
U.S. Yield and Production
U.S. Ending Stocks
December Corn Chart
Corn prices continue to chop in a very narrow range, just a few cents on either side of $5.50 while the trade waits for fresh information. Anything within the 40-cent range form $5.32-$5.73 is fair game in the near term and the bullish or bearish news would determine whether corn can re-test the $5 level over time or whether we can push above the $6 level. Weather and USDA’s yields and stocks estimate likely to determine which direction the market breaks out on the chart.
November Soybean Chart
A very similar pattern in soybeans. We’ve developed a narrower trading range over the past month compared to what we saw in April, May, and June. Over the past 4 days soybeans have been inching upward to where our moving averages come into play. That’s also closer to the middle of the range that has been in place over the last month. A combination of weather information and USDA’s crop report will determine whether beans can break below the $13 level over time or rally up into the mid $14 level. Either of those is possible based on news that develops for the soybean market over the next couple weeks.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are in an uptrend off the lows posted back in early July. The market has consolidated over the last week or so as traders now unwilling to push prices too much further before the key crop report coming out this week on Thursday. Technical indicators into the overbought range also may be limiting the bullish attitude heading into Thursday’s report.
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