Closing Market Comments August 10, 2021

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Today’s Prices  

Grain prices closed higher today. The exception was corn which was slightly lower due to crop conditions above expectations.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Weather is not providing a clear bearish or bullish signal. Rainfall over the past 7 days have been very good in portions of the western belt. From southern MN, northern/northwestern IA, eastern SD, and eastern NE all picking some good rains and most of those rains desperately needed. Southern IL and southwestern IN also picking up some good rains with another area of rain in northern IL and northern IN. Bottom line, rains over the past 7 days have clearly reduced some of the dry areas but its also worth noting a lot of areas in light blue or white remain and in those areas, crop stress is likely on going, in fact, in some areas could be quite significant. The Delta is an area that has been drying out over the last week and needs monitored as well.

High Temperatures Monday 8-9-21

Yesterday’s high temperatures for Monday shows most of the belt was in the 80’s. We did have 90’s in the western belt and 100’s common in the central and southern Plains.

High Temperature Forecast for 8-10-21

A similar temperatures pattern for today with 80’s over the northern and northeastern belt, 90’s in the western and southwestern belt, and 100’s again expected in the Plains.

U.S. Radar

Humidity levels are very high, in fact, dew points in the 70 to mid-70’s across much of the central U.S. corn and bean belt is allowing for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to be popping up this afternoon which should help fill in some of those dry pockets.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows those showers expected mostly from northern MO and southeast IA into the eastern belt. The northern Plains and northwestern belt expected to remain dry for the next week and unfortunately not much rain in the Delta where things are starting to dry out as well.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast still showing above normal temperatures in the central and northern blet but is not as dry as yesterday’s forecast. Still dry in the central and eastern belt but about normal expected in the 6-10 day in the northern belt and above normal precipitation is possible for the 8-14 day for the central and western belt. Bottom line is very similar to what we’ve been discussing for an extended period of time. The overall forecast is not ideal but it’s certainly not threatening either.

Grain Market News

U.S. Corn Crop Condition

USDA raised the corn crop condition rating by 2% from 62% up to 64% G/E. That was seen as a surprise and resulted in lower corn prices today. The 64% G/E compares to 71% G/E last year at this time. Based on USDA’s condition rating, the U.S. corn crop is pretty close to average with about half of the estimates over the last 20 years above and about half below.

U.S. Soybean Crop Condition

USDA left the soybean crop condition rating unchanged at 60% G/E and that compares to 74% last year when the crop was near record high ratings for mid-August. The U.S. soybean crop rating would be considered just slightly below average for this time of year.

U.S. Yield and Production

U.S. Ending Stocks

U.S. World Stocks

December Corn Chart

Corn prices continue to be stuck in a very narrow range. That’s a sideways range as the market is comfortable with new crop prices around $5.50/bu, waiting for additional input to drive prices on way or another, outside the current range. Technical indicators also stuck in a narrow range, again, waiting for the market to present fresh news that would give either the bulls or the bears the confidence to push prices outside the recent range.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also fairly quiet over the last few days as the market consolidates waiting for the crop report to come out on Thursday. The chart has developed a very gradual uptrend over the last week with technicals also turning to the upside. This would indicate there is some upside potential if we could get just a little bit of friendly news.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat has been the upside leader, rallying $1.40 in just a months time and now up in the upper end of the trading range challenging the area we saw back in April and May.

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