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Grain markets were lower today as the Pro Farmer crop tour did not provide any surprises and the outside markets also adding some additional downward pressure.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Crop Condition
U.S. corn crop conditions dropped by 2% and that’s 62% G/E well below last year’s 69% G/E and just a little below the average for this time of year. With soil moisture drying down in many locations and this week will get an additional 4-5 days of drying in many locations, we expect crop conditions to be lowered next week as well.
Corn – Change in G/E Rating
U.S. Soybean Crop Condition
Soybean crop conditions fell a sharp 3% from last week at 57% G/E and that compares to 72% G/E last year at this time. Soybean conditions at 57% G/E are below average for the 3rd week in August. Like corn, we believe bean conditions will likely fall by another 1-2% next week based on dry conditions and heat in the west at least through Thursday.
Soybean – Change in G/E Rating
U.S. Topsoil Moisture
Soil moisture held about steady at 44% short to very short and that is the second driest we’ve been for mid-August since the severe drought of 2012. We’re nowhere near the 2012 conditions but we are significantly short of moisture in a large area of the corn and bean belt area. Those dry areas are going to have to suffer through another 4-5 days this week before rains are expected to possibly move in, in the Fri, Sat, Sun timeframe. That leaves us to believe that crop conditions will slip lower based on stress before the rain arrives.
Grain Market News
ProFarmer Crop Tour Corn Yield
ProFarmer Crop Tour Soybean Pods
High Temperatures: Monday 8-16-21
The heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt is in pretty good shape with some upper 70’s in the Great Lakes region, some low 90’s in the west but a lot of 80’s across the heart of the belt. Extreme, brutal heat continues in the northern Plains where any crops left up there likely seeing severe stress ongoing.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Unfortunately in addition to the extreme heat we haven’t seen much precipitation in the northwestern belt and central/northern Plains over the last week and that combination of lack of rain and extreme heat certainly doing a lot of damage to any of the final stages in the northern Plains region. The good news, if there is any, as we move farther into the heart of the belt and the eastern belt conditions are much better but that certainly doesn’t help the farmers in the northern Plains.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
This map has removed some of the precipitation for KS, NE, IA, and southern MN but still has 1-2” for ND and into the some of the southern Canadian Prairie. We’ll be watching over the next couple of days to see if this trend of reducing moisture in the central belt continues and also be watching to see if the forecast continues to call for good rains in the northern Plains.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast we would generally consider non-threatening. Temperatures are above normal for this time of year for the central U.S. and most of the belt in the 8-14 day with precipitation above normal in the northcentral region, specifically WI, MN, and IA and then wet in the eastern and southern belt in the 8-14 day. Overall, we do not see any major threats with this forecast but we’ll have to see if any changes take place over the next few days.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices are in a very gradually uptrend off the lows posted in early July but we’re not expecting the market to explode. The market was trading in a sideways range for about a month. After the crop report, markets shot up to the upside and now we wouldn’t be surprised to see a sideways trading range again, just a little bit higher level than previously. With that in mind, corn is coming down to fairly significant chart support where we have all the major moving average and uptrend all coming into play. Technical indicators chopping back and forth, mid-range. They’re not getting overbought or oversold and for the most part the market is remain somewhat choppy with the exception to the big move upward following the USDA’s Aug crop report.
November Soybean Chart
Soybeans are also in a gradual uptrend off the lows from a couple weeks ago. Here again, we’re not expecting the market to explode to the upside. USDA did not change the S&D for soybeans and therefore the range could remain stuck in a similar pattern to what we’ve seen over the last 6 weeks or so.
September KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are having a correction. This market has been in a sharp uptrend. In fact, KC wheat has rallied $1.78 in just a little over a month and it looks as though wheat could be pulling back towards chart support where our uptrending line comes into play.
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