Closing Market Comments August 23, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain markets finished mixed today. The outside markets stabilizing and rallying following last week’s collapse and the weather still providing some mixed influences.

Grain Market News

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Corn: Export Inspections

Corn inspections came in at 28.5 mb. That’s a relatively low number but given the fact USDA lowered its export forecast in the Aug crop report it does appear corn exports are on track to reach USDA’s target.

Beans: Export Inspections

Soybean export inspections came at 7.8 mb. That’s a relatively small number but keep in mind we’ve nearly reached USDA’s number already. And with the 10 mb reduction in USDA’s export forecast, soybean exports are likely on track to hit USDA’s target.

Grain Market News

High Temperatures Sun 8-22-21

The heart of the corn has had pretty good temperatures much of the summer. Heat has been mostly in the northwestern belt and Plains states. The same thing was true over the weekend, yesterday high temperatures across the heart of the belt mostly in the 80’s.A few 90’s in the eastern belt, some 90’s in the western belt, and some extreme heat in the western Plains.

Temp: 90-Day Departure from Normal

Temperatures over the past 90 days, arching a line from Chicago to KS City north and west has been dry and hot and south and east more normal. Temperatures in the northwestern belt, northern Plains 3-4 degrees above normal and that is very significant when you look at not just over a week but a 3-month period. Clearly the northern Plains and northwestern belt and the Pacific northwest has suffered due to drought and heat while the heart of the U.S. corn and bean belt has seen much more mild conditions.

U.S. Radar

The radar shows just a few showers around IL and southern MO but not much outside of that. Humidity levels haver returned and are extremely high. We could see some significant rainfall over the next week.

7-Day Observed Precipitation

Rainfall over the last week shows northern IA did quite well. The northern Plains did quite well and some other scattered areas. But we need to keep in mind, most of the rains fell starting on Thursday in the fart northwestern Plains, Friday more in the northwestern belt and then Sunday in IA. Therefore, we had about 4-6 days of heat and dryness before these rains fell. When you combine that with the fact that much of the eastern belt received little or no rain as well as the central and western Plains, we think crop conditions will be a little bit lower in this afternoon’s weekly update.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Big rains up in eastern MN and WI, 3-5” forecasted for that area while 1-2” in the eastern Dakota’s and 1-3” in northern IA. 2-3” would be very beneficial in some of the northwestern belt but the lack of rain in the central southern Plains or eastern belt could be a challenge in some of those areas that have now been drying out for 10 days.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The longer term map in the 6-10 day shows above normal temperatures. In the 8-14 day above average temperatures. When we look at precipitation mostly above normal in the 6-10 day and normal to about average in the 8-14 day. We view the long term forecast as mostly neutral.

December Corn Chart

The long-term trend is a choppy, sideways trend. The intermediate term trend is also sideways and choppy. The short-term trend is down, and the technical indicators are pointed down as well. There is no sign of a bottom from the chart or technicals but keep in mind we are near major chart support and technicals are approaching the oversold level.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices are also in a choppy, sideways range from a long-term perspective. Choppy and sideways from an intermediate and down in the short term. Technicals are pointed down as well. But as we mentioned in corn, prices have come down to some major chart support. Technicals are getting close to the oversold level, and we may find less and less sellers with prices and chart signals down at these levels.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices sideways and choppy over the long term. The intermediate term trend is up. Short term trend is down similar to corn and beans with technicals pointed down as well. The wheat market had an inside day. We did not take out Friday’s high. We did not take out Friday’s low so really no significant chart signals following today’s trade.

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