Closing Market Comments August 30, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished sharply lower today partially on weather that is considered mostly favorable at this time but also the September futures contract going into First-Notice day tomorrow presented quite a bit of liquidation into today’s trade.

Grain Market News

7-Day Observed Precipitation

The past 7 days precipitation shows hurricane Ida came ashore in southeast LA. The good news is that the heaviest of rain and winds is going to fall east of the primarily growing, the Delta and then into the OH River Valley. The heaviest rains and wind are going to fall south and east of that line. Excellent rains fell in the northwestern belt. We’ve talked about the driest area arching down from Chicago to KS City, north and west of that line was the driest area and they got some very good rains. Portions of the Dakota’s, much of MN and northern IA all seeing very good rains which should allow crop conditions to improve in this afternoon’s weekly update from USDA. Down in the southern belt, the Delta and into the central Plains lighter rains feel and crop conditions could slip lower in portions of the southern and eastern belt given we’ve had temperatures in the 90’s over the last week.

U.S. Radar

The U.S. radar shows the remanence of hurricane Ida down in MS and AL and that rain is supposed to move primarily to the north and northeast over the next 3-4 days.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

We can that on a map showing that rain is not going to hit hard in the Delta or OH River Valley and that should spare many corn and soybean fields from excessive rains.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The longer term weather map shows a non-threatening outlook with temperatures fairly close to normal in the 6-10, normal to a little bit below in the 8-14 day. With precipitation normal to lightly below in the 6-10 day and mixed in the 8-14 day. We view the forecast for the most part non-threatening.

High Temperatures Sunday 8-29-21

We mentioned the crop conditions could slip lower in the southern and eastern belt. Even yesterday we still had temperatures in the 90’s across most of the southern half of the eastern belt and the Delta region as well as portions of the Plains. And as we mentioned previously, these areas have had temperatures in the 90’s for a week or even longer.

Grain Market News

Corn: Weekly Export Inspections

Today’s weekly export inspections was nothing to write home about. Corn inspections very disappointing at just 22 mb but when we look at year to date with just a half of week left, exports at 56.9% above a year ago and USDA projecting 56.1% so we’re very close to reach USDA’s target.

Soybeans: Weekly Export Inspections

Bean export inspections increased to 13.86 mb. That’s the best number going back to late march, early April. Soybean inspections up 37.1%, USDA forecasting inspections will be up 34.4%. So we’re on track to reach or slightly exceed USDA’s target for soybean exports in the old crop position which ends tomorrow on August 31st.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices had been trending up nicely most of last week but today a very disappointing day on the charts after posting a new high for this move up to $5.58/bu the market turned around and closed with significant losses and that was enough to turn the technicals back to the downside. A pretty disappointing day on the corn chart. Support now in the $5.29-$5.32 level and that would be about 10-12 cents below where we closed today.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices which have rallied early last week are turning back down again from a chart perspective. That was enough to turn the technical indicators down as well. Therefore, we have a similar setup in soybeans where chart support would come in somewhere around the $13 level were we saw a double bottom earlier in the summer. And we did break a few cents below $13 earlier this morning. Then the next level of support would be the $12.77 level that was posted a little over a week ago.

September KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices had turned higher previously but today was a pretty disappointing day in wheat after posting a new high in wheat at $7.24. We turned around and closed at $7.04, 20 cents off the daily high and that was enough to turn the technicals back down as well. Chart support for wheat coming in just a little below today’s close. The lows posted about a week and a half ago at $6.95 and then the lows that were posted back earlier in August at $6.87 would present the next level of chart support if we can’t get some bullish news soon.

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