Closing Market Comments September 8, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today as the markets are stabilizing ahead of the USDA crop report which will come out this week on Friday.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Condition

Corn crop condition rating came in at 59% G/E is down 1% from last week and 2% below last year. Last year is in red and this year in yellow.

Corn Change by State

Soybean Crop Condition

Soybean crop condition rating came in at 57% G/E. That is up 1% from last week but still 8% below last year at this time.

Soybean Change by State

Brazil Safrinha Corn Harvest

USDA will also update its estimate for the Brazilian corn crop. The Brazilian Safrinha corn harvest which began in June and early July is now wrapping up at 94% harvested. A little bit below average but keep in mind planting was 2-4 weeks last and harvest has been behind all year long. This year is in the bright green bar.

Grain Market News

Average Trade Estimates: Sept Crop Report

High Temperatures

U.S. weather not a big factor but it is pretty favorable. Mostly 80’s with a few upper 70’s and few low 90’s. Pretty good weather for late season growing provided you have adequate moisture. We do see some temperatures that are pretty warm in the southern Plains and that could extend into the western Plains as we move through the week. But again, we don’t believe it’ll have a big impact on this year’s yield potential from a nationwide perspective.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Generally dry weather is expected across the central U.S. over the next 7 days. A few light showers but overall a relatively warm, dry period expected going forward.

30-Day Observed Precipitation

Almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt has pretty good precipitation and therefore pretty good soil moisture at this time for the final filling stages. Certainly, if you’re in one of the pockets in green which is less than 2” over the last 30 days then you might be wishing you had more moisture for the final filling stage but the vast majority of corn and bean producers have enough moisture to get by the final filling stage.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The 2-week forecast shows above normal temperatures in the 6-10 day as well as the 8-14 day. Generally dry conditions in the 6-10 day outlook and mixed in the 8-14 day. As we get closer to the end of the 2-week period it does look like it begins to get wetter in the eastern belt and the Great Lakes states. Remaining dry in the Plains.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices made another new low for the move down to $5.07 today. That matches the spike low that was produced in early July. That is near the lowest prices we’ve seen going back to April. Certainly, the market is expecting bearish news with prices at the lower end of the range as we head towards Friday’s crop report. It’s also worth noting that technical indicators are extremely oversold, in fact about as oversold as they’ve been in a year.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also near the lower end of the range going back to March and April with technical indicators extremely oversold and about as oversold as we’ve seen them over the last year plus. Corn and beans both entering the crop report on Friday with charts at the lower end of the range and technical indicators severely oversold.

December KC Wheat Chart

With the loss of production and the loss in Russia, the wheat market rallied about $1.80/bu back in the July, August timeframe. The markets have eased back and we’re near the lower end of the range that we’ve been in over the last month. But technical indicators are in a neutral range. Not as oversold as they are in corn and beans.

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