Closing Market Comments September 10, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain markets bounced back from extremely oversold conditions despite some negative news from USDA’s September crop report.

Grain Market News

U.S. Yield and Production

Sept 2021 Corn Yield

The states in blue saw an increase in yield and the states in red saw a decline. Most of the northwestern belt and the Plains states saw their yields increase and that was due to late season rainfall. The # indicates a record yield is being projected for that state and the number below the yield is the change from last month. MI, NY, PA, OH, IN, IL, and KY all expecting record yields this year.

 Sept 2021 Soybean Yield

Soybean yields were a little bit more mixed. Most of the eastern bean belt saw yields left unchanged and the northwestern belt and northern Plains saw yields mixed. USDA is still expecting record yields in MO, IL, IN, OH, PA, NY, and KY. But record yields anticipated in the eastern belt will be somewhat offset by very disappointing yields in the northwestern belt. It’s worth noting the third largest soybean producer which is MN, USDA raise its yield by 9.3 bu/ac and that was enough to push the nation yield up from last month as well.

U.S. Ending Stocks

U.S. World Ending Stocks

U.S. Corn Balance Sheet

U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet

U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet

Grain Market News

High Temperatures

Early harvest weather is nearly ideal this week although not many fields are ready. Yesterday high temperatures shows temperatures in the upper 70’s and low 80’s across almost the entire corn and bean belt with 90’s in the southern and western Plains. Unfortunately, we will see temperatures up into the 100’s in the southwestern Plains the next 2-3 days but that is not the heart of the belt and most crops are beyond the point that it’ll make a big difference at this point.

U.S. Radar

No precipitation this week in the U.S. corn and bean belt. If you have late developing crops that are short on moisture this is not a good scenario but most areas do have adequate soil moisture for the final filling stages so the weather is seen as favorable for early harvest.

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast does show a little bit of precipitation in the central belt into potions of the eastern belt. Most of this is going to fall late Sunday into the Mon-Tues timeframe. But longer term the weather maps are calling for above normal temperatures, below normal precipitation for most of the belt. Although the Great Lakes and northern portions of the eastern belt could be a little bit wetter while it should remain dry in most of the Plains.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices saw a major key reversal. We made a new low for the move but turned around and closed above yesterday’s high. Today’s low at $4.97 is the lowest price we’ve seen since April but the markets did turn around and closed sharply higher on the day. The key reversal is a very positive sign from a chart perspective, and it was enough to turn our technical indicators up from an oversold position. It’ll be important to see some follow through early next week but nonetheless today’s performance quite impressive on both that chart and the technicals.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also posted a new low for the move down to $12.62. That was the lowest prices since mid-June. Prices did turn around and closed above yesterday’s high so we also had a key reversal on the soybean chart and that was enough to hook the technical indicators to the upside. And again, it’ll be important to see some following through early next week. Today’s chart and technical performance looks quite impressive.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices set a new low for the move down to $6.70 but turned around and closed at $6.82, 12 cents off the daily low. We did not have a key reversal in wheat.  In fact, the chart is still pointed downward but we were above to close significantly off the daily low but not enough to turn the technicals. They’re still in the oversold position.

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