Closing Market Comments September 21, 2021

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Today’s Prices

Grain prices finished mixed today, trying to consolidate following the news from China and Evergrande yesterday.

Grain Market News

Corn Crop Condition

Conditions nationwide improved 1% from 58% G/E to 59% G/E. That is still 2% below the year ago rating which was 61%.

Corn Conditions by State

IL improved by 12%, that is literally unheard of for any week, up or down. That was quite a surprise and if it wasn’t for IL, conditions would have likely been down 1%.

Soybean Crop Condition

Soybean conditions also improved 1% to 58% G/E but that is still 5% below last year’s rating of 63%.

Soybean Conditions by State

The state by state table shows IL improved by 14%. No other state improved by more than 2% and on either side of IL, IN and IA were down. What is going on in IL is a mystery to us.

U.S. Vegetation Health Weekly Change

The map shows the vegetation health change from last week. Where we got some decent rains in the far northern belt we saw conditions improve from a vegetation health index perspective. But IL did not show any major improvement from vegetation health. Again, we’re not able to explain how the crop conditions were able to explain how crop conditions could improve so dramatically when nothing seemed to have changed.

Grain Market News

7-Day Precipitation Forecast

The forecast shows no precipitation expected in the central belt or Plains over the next 7 days. The rain in the eastern belt will be wrapping up in the next 24-48 hours and then they will turn into a significantly drier pattern as well.

6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast

The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast shows mostly above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt over the next 2 weeks. Again, this will promote very good harvesting conditions if the forecast is correct.

U.S. Vegetation Health Yearly Change

This map shows the vegetation health change from last year. The Dakota’s and MN much below a year ago. The numbers that highlighted are the yield change vs last year based on the Sept crop report. USDA project the yield to be up 4.3 bpa from last year’s yield. ND is expected to be down 31 bpa, SD down 29 bpa, and MN down 18 bpa from last year. But big increases in yield are expected across a large portion of the belt. IA is expected to be up 20 bpa, IL up 22 bpa, IN up 10 bpa, OH up 19 bpa, MI up 20 bpa. Even the Plain states are looking for increases. Many in the trade and eastern belt question whether these record yields that are 10-20 bpa larger than last year are going to be possible especially with some of the disappointing reports that are coming in from the early harvest.

Brazil’s 1st Corn Crop Planting Progress

This chart is Brazil’s full season corn planting progress that grows primarily in the southern Brazil and it only adds up to about 25 % of their production. The rest is their safrinha corn crop which won’t be planted until soybeans are harvest in Jan-Mar of 2022. Looking at their first corn planting, everything is pretty much on time. But their soybean planting could be delayed. Soybean planting doesn’t begin until they get some rains but the rainy season has not yet kicked in and Brazil’s soybean crop may be a little bit delayed getting planted for the second year in row.

December Corn Chart

Corn prices have pulled lower over the last 3 trading sessions. After rallying 40-cents from the crop report lows a week ago Friday, prices have now pulled back 20-cents and we’re right in the middle of the range that has been established over the last 2 weeks. The trade will be very interested in developments coming out of China following the Evergrande failure of a debt payment. That will be a key factor as well as yield reports coming off the combine later this week.

November Soybean Chart

Soybean prices also pulling lower over the last 3 days. In fact, today we made a new low for the move down to $12.57, getting very close to the double bottom on the chart established in the spring and again in the summer down around the $12.40 level. We can’t rule out a little bit lower soybean prices but we do believe soybeans are in the process of establishing a seasonal or harvest low. Therefore is this is no place to be making sales.

December KC Wheat Chart

Wheat prices also slipping lower over the last 2-3 days but despite the break we’re still sitting about 20-cents above the lows posted the day of the crop report posted about a week and a half ago.

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