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Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished lower today. Partly on profit taking following the recent rally. But also very negative outside markets today contributed to the selling.
Grain Market News
High Temperatures
Yesterday’s high temperatures were in the 80-90’s across the northern belt, 15-20 degrees above normal. The combination of these very warm temperatures and in some cases near record highs for this time of year combined with the central U.S. which is complete dry is providing good drying conditions for crops still standing and the farmers are getting out into the field. The harvest of corn and soybeans is ramping up.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The 7-day forecast is looking a little bit wetter. The Plains states into the western belt could see rain as early as late tomorrow in the Plains but more likely Thurs or Fri in the western belt. The eastern belt should be dry most of this week before rains set in primarily over the weekend.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecast continues to call for above normal temperatures across nearly the entire central U.S. with precipitation now starting to turn a little mixed. Some areas a little wetter. Some areas a little drier. Overall, this forecast still looks fairly favorable for harvest to advance in the weeks to come. It’s also worth noting there is virtually no sign of frost all the way into mid-Oct.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Condition
The U.S. corn condition did hold steady at 59% G/E. We are nearing the end of the year and typically ratings don’t change a lot from now to mid-Oct.
Corn Change by State
U.S. Soybean Condition
In soybeans the crop condition rating was left unchanged. At 58% G/E that is 6 points below last year’s rating of 64%, shown in the red line. As we approach the end of the growing season we don’t expect any major changes in ratings as we move through the next few weeks.
Soybean Change by State
Quarterly Stocks and U.S. Wheat Production
December Corn Chart
Prices did make a new high earlier today at $5.41 but turned around and closed at $5.32. A little bit of something for everyone. The chart still looks good going to the upside but today’s close was somewhat disappointing. Technical indicators are near the overbought range and did show a little bit of a sign of hooking today based on the disappointing close. Bullish traders would like to see the moving averages hold. If the market would still see some downside, the next level of chart support would be where the 10-20 day moving averages come into play, around $5.23-$5.25 and that is 5-8 cents below today’s close.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices had a disappointing day trading lower, in fact, double digits lower. We still see bottoming action on the chart overall in somewhat of a U-shaped bottom but this market is still not showing any signs of wanting to really take off to the upside. This leaves chart support down at $12.57. Overhead resistance up near $13. We’ve been in this range for over 3 weeks.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices are in an uptrend and today we did set a new high for the move at $7.25 but we established a key reversal down with prices closing a $7.05, that’s 20 cents off the daily high and that could generate a little additional chart selling tomorrow. Chart support would likely come in just below the $7 range where our uptrend line comes into play.
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