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Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished mixed today with soybeans continuing to be the downside leader on yields that appear to be bigger than expectations.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Yield
Next week USDA will issue its October crop report on Tuesday, Oct 12th. USDA raised the corn yield to 176.3 bpa in last month’s Sept crop report and there are mixed ideas heading into the October crop report with yields coming in below expectations in the eastern belt but above expectations in the western belt.
Monthly Corn Yield Estimates
This chart shows the month-to-month yield estimates. This year in August USDA was projecting a yield of 174.6 bpa but they raised it 1.7 bpa in the Sept crop report up to 176.3 bpa. Heading into the Oct crop report there are mixed ideas. Some a little higher, some a little lower. We wouldn’t be surprised to see the average trade guess very close to USDA’s estimate from last month.
U.S. Soybean Yield
USDA raised the soybean yield estimate in Sept as well. They raised it from 50 bpa to 50.6 bpa which is just above the long-term trendline yield. The record yield was set in 2016, 5 years ago at 52 bpa. There is some talk in the trade of the possibility of this year’s yield reaching that record level of 52 bpa nationwide.
Monthly Soybeans Yield Estimates
In August USDA had the U.S. yield at 50 bpa. In September they came in at 50.6 bpa. Again, some are thinking that its possible U.S. yields could be raised to 52 bpa. Those expectations of a significantly larger soybean yield is part of what’s driving soybean prices lower over the past few days but keep in mind we got a bearish Stock’s report last week as well.
Grain Market News
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 7 days we had rain in the western belt early last week and then there was an open window late in the week. The eastern belt was open almost all week until rains fell late in the week and into the weekend. The only area in the heart of the belt that has been wide open for the entire week is eastern IA and adjacent areas of neighboring states.
U.S. Radar
Today’s radar shows some scattered showers in the eastern belt but for the most part IL west is wide open with warm temperatures and sunny skies promoting a rapid harvest at this time.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Today’s 7 day precipitation forecast shows pockets of showers. ND and neighboring areas, KS and MO and neighboring areas and portions of the OH Valley. But also some dry pockets in northwestern belt and into the central Plains and down into the Delta where harvest is wrapping up. Bottom line, we do expect harvest to advance at or slightly ahead of an average pace this week.
Corn: Weekly Export Inspections
We’ve been monitoring export inspections to see if they would start improving now that we have more facilities up in the lower MS Valley following Hurricane Ida. Corn exports hit a marketing year high at 31.8 mb. That is still not the level needed to reach USDA’s exports which is 50 mb/wk. But it is steadily increasing and we expect export inspections to reach the 50 mb/wk sometime later in Oct.
Soybean: Weekly Export Inspections
The best of the marketing year at 31 mb. It’s still below the level needed but we expect it to continue to increase as more capacity opens up in the lower Gulf region and more beans make their way into the harvest pipeline. We expect soybean inspections will be up to the 43 mb and above as we move into the second half of October.
Wheat: Weekly Export Inspections
Wheat export inspections have been up and down over the past 4-5 months. This week’s exports were very good at 22.4 mb. Well above the level needed but keep in mind but last week was disappointing and below the level needed. Bottom line, year to date exports after about 4 months has wheat exports down 12.3% versus USDA’s 11.8% down so very close to USDA’s projection for wheat.
December Corn Chart
Really no big developments on the corn chart. We challenged last week’s high at $5.48, turned around and closed steady to a faction lower. Technical indicators are chopping sideways, close to the overbought level. Today there was no real strong signal from chart or technicals for the bulls or the bears but the chart does remain in an uptrend off of the lows posted the day of the Sept crop report.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices are in a steady downtrend and they have been going back to mid-summer. Last week’s Stocks report which found 81 mb combined with good harvest progress and talk that yields are consistently coming in above expectations in the western belt, pressing bean prices to new lows today at $12.35. That slightly takes out the lows from June and also the lows from April where we had somewhat of a double bottom around $12.40. It was not a clean breakout below those lows but chart watchers will probably be eyeing up the $11.84 and wondering if we can get to that area during the peak for harvest. One item to note is that the technical indicators are back into the oversold range so although we could go lower, bears need to be a little bit more cautious with technical indicators oversold.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices pushed to a new high. $7.64 was today’s high, very close to the contract of $7.69. Technical indicators are overbought. Prices near contract highs. Even though prices still have room to move to the upside based on extremely tight U.S. and global stocks, this is a very good area to be caught up wheat sales as wheat prices could see a significant correction and still be in a strong uptrend.
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