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Today’s Prices
Grain prices were mixed but mostly a little higher today as the back-and-forth choppy trade continues ahead of next week’s crop report.
Grain Market News
U.S. Yield and Production
U.S. and World Ending Stocks
Grain Market News
Cash and Futures Soybean Crush Margins
Over the past few days we’ve been discussing the ethanol margins and how the industry is sitting in very good shape for strong ethanol production. Today’s chart shows soybean crush margins. The board crush in the black line is about $1.25/bu and that is very good and it’s at the upper end of the range over the past 3 years. The cash margins are even better. The red line is cash crush margins in the western belt sitting at about $2.15/bu. That is near record high. Cash crush prices are in the eastern belt about $1.90/bu, also very good. This should promote a very strong crush now that new crop beans are available.
Corn: Weekly Export Sales
Corn export sales at 1.265 mmt. That is the best week of sales for U.S. corn in last March, almost 7 months ago.
Soybean: Weekly Export Sales
Soybean export sales at 1.042 mmt is not a bad number but is relatively low for this time of year. Last year we had record sales at this time of year and that is why our export sales on beans are well below the year ago level. But it is worth noting that exports dropped off dramatically and were extremely low last year Dec and Jan, in fact, near record low Mar-Aug as well. We do believe bean exports will improve and will actually go above the year ago level in the Dec and Jan timeframe.
Wheat: Weekly Export Sales
Wheat export sales were below the level needed which is the black line, and then above, then below for a few weeks and then above. That trend has continued all marketing year for wheat and overall, wheat exports at this point seem to be right on track to reach USDA’s target.
U.S. Pork and Beef Exports
Exports of pork in August to China were about half compared to a year ago and that is because African Swine Flu has been tackled for the most part and Chinese production of pork is back near record levels. Good news is that total pork exports are equal to the year ago level when you combine all countries. Jan-Aug 21 versus last month, U.S. pork exports are equal to a year ago despite China is down 36% from a year ago. But every other major importer of U.S. pork is at or above the year ago level. Again, U.S. export pork are equal to the year ago level for the first 8 months. Beef exports to China are over 5X’s compared to a year ago. In almost seems as though once China started importing more beef due the African Swine Flu, their population acquired a taste for beef and U.S. exports to China remain strong. Total exports in Aug were up 21% from a year ago. In the Jan-Aug 21 Chinese imports of U.S. beef up 9.5X’s a year ago and U.S. beef exports are up 21% for the year.
U.S. Radar
U.S. radar shows some scattered showers in the eastern belt, especially northern IL while the western belt mostly dry with the exception of a few sprinkles. Harvest should be continuing to push sharply ahead in the western belt.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast is starting to look a little bit wetter especially this weekend into early next week. We’ll still have a few more days of dry weather in portions of the western and southern belt. But then we have some rains over the weekend with additional rains next week in the northern Plains with the central belt seeing rains move in. Harvest has been racing ahead in many areas but we may see harvest slow just a little bit next week but it does not appear to be a major problem.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices had a very disappointing day, breaking below some chart support but overall remaining within the area where all of the moving averages are coming into play. The good news is that corn did close higher on the day. A little bit of something for everyone on today’s chart. Technical indicators are still pointed downward following a pullback over the last few days. We’ll see if the market can rebound tomorrow after today’s rebound to close higher. Overall, we feel this market may be establishing a trading range heading into the crop report coming up next Tuesday.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also consolidating over the last 3-4 days. Technical indicators oversold. They’re trying to turn up but the market is not convincingly on the side of the bears or the bulls. We’re chopping sideways waiting for fresh news.
December KC Wheat Chart
The Dec KC wheat chart also showing some consolidation. Prices have pulled back off the highs posted on Monday but remain somewhat stuck in a sideways range. Again, waiting for fresh input with next week’s Tuesday crop report likely being the next candidate for a significant move.
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