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Today’s Prices
Corn and soybean prices finished sharply lower today as USDA provided additional bearish news in today’s Oct crop report.
Grain Market News
U.S. Yield and Production
Oct 2021 Corn Yield
This chart shows the corn yield for Oct and shows them as a percent change from last month. These are a percent change, not a bushels/acre change. The MN yield came in at 178 bpa, that was up 2.3% from last month. In the western belt corn yields were increased from last month’s report. In the eastern belt yields were decreased compared to last month. Bottom line, U.S. yield was up just slightly from a month ago. In the largest two states, the IA yield was raised from 191 to 201 bpa, 3 bpa. The IL yield was lower from 214 to 210, that’s down 4 bpa. Those two states, the largest two corn producing states in the nation, somewhat offset each other.
Oct 2021 Soybean Yield
In the western belt yields were increased from last month but the difference in this chart is that the eastern belt was left mostly unchanged so there was not much in the way of lower yields to offset the higher yield estimates from last month in the western belt. IA and IL are the two largest soybean producing states. IL was left unchanged at 64 bpa. The IA yield was raised by 2 bpa to 61 bpa. That would be a record large yield for IA. A record large yield is being projected for NE. Bottom line, the summer heat and dryness certainly affected ND, SD, and MN but in the eastern belt as well as IA and NE, the soybean crop looks like its going to be able to produce record large yields.
U.S. and World Ending Stocks
U.S. Corn Balance Sheet
U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet
U.S. Wheat Balance Sheet
Grain Market News
3-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the past 3 days we’ve seen some fairly heavy rains in northern SD, ND, and western MN. That was primarily on Sunday into early Monday. And then yesterday and today we got some fairly significant rains in the central corn belt. Southeastern IA, IL, MO, KS, and portions of IN saw some significant rains that will delay harvest in that area. In the far eastern belt and OH Valley, harvest is likely continuing and then in portions of the western belt into the central Plains, harvest is likely continuing as rains were missed over the last 3 days in that area.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
Additional rains are expected later today through tomorrow in the northern Plains with rains Thurs and into Fri in the southern belt, into the eastern corn belt. This will keep harvest spotty and scattered across the belt. There will still be some combines rolling but it won’t be wide-open.
6-10 and 8-14 Day Forecast
Things are start to clear out this weekend and be completely clear at least based on today’s forecast across the corn and bean belt. Above normal temperatures for most of the belt in the 6-10 day and for the entire belt in the 8-14 day. Mostly dry conditions expected in the 6-10 day and mostly dry in the 8-14 day. After a spotty week of harvest this week, harvest should rally ramp up next week in most areas.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices broke through the support that had been in place for about 2 and a half weeks. That was a 20 cents range from $5.27-$5.48. We mentioned yesterday that bullish news could push us into the $5.50-$5.60 range, the upper end of the chart formation. And bearish news could push us down towards the $5 level, the lower end of the formation. Today’s report was bearish. Therefore, we broke out to the downside. We’re not wildly bearish but additional downside could be seen with harvest ramping up and hitting a seasonal peak for harvest next week.
November Soybean Chart
Previous we had fairly good support around the $12.40 level but we clearly broke through that today on a bearish USDA report. With that in mind we reconfigured to show the primary trend is a downtrend now. Not only did we break out to new lows but we’re at the lower end of a downtrending channel. The next level of significant chart support would be the spike lows from late March/early April at $12.84. That is 10-15 cents below today’s close. We will note, technical indicators are pegged nearly at zero. Seasonally, soybeans hit their lowest price of the year, on average in early Oct. Therefore, we do not want to get overly bearish even though there could be some additional downside risk in the near term.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices pushed lower today down to $7.26 following the bearish report for corn and beans but wheat was able to bounce back and close higher on the day. Wheat currently has chart support down around the $7.20 level with overhead resistance at the $7.64 level. Anything within this range is fair game within the next couple of weeks.
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