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Today’s Prices
Grain markets finished mixed today taking a breather after 3 consecutive days of moving higher.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Harvest
Corn harvest is 52% complete. Next week we expect that to be around 70% complete. With only 30% of harvest remaining and next week a wetter week, harvest will be much slower going forward.
U.S. Soybean Harvest
Soybean harvest 60% complete as of USDA’s report. Next week we believe it’ll be about 80% complete. And with only 20% of harvest remaining once we get to next Monday and a wetter week in the forecast, soybean harvest will be significantly slower as well.
Corn Crop Condition
Corn crop condition rating was left unchanged at 60% G/E. Down 1% from last year at 61%.
Corn Condition by State
Grain Market News
El Nino Forecast
This chart shows sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. Anything above zero is sea surface temperatures above average which would be El Nino. Anything below the zero line is cooler than normal ocean sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific which would be a La Nina event. Last year in Oct, Nov, Dec into Jan we had a mild La Nina and that had an impact on the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil. The NWS as well as other forecasters around the globe are anticipating an even stronger La Nina event this year. The heart of South American growing season is Nov, Dec, Jan, and Feb. The peak of La Nina is Nov through Feb and it is expected to be a very strong La Nina event nearly 2 degrees Celsius below average. This is why many forecasters are concerned about additional dryness in Argentina and surrounding areas.
GRACE-Based Surface Soil
Weather information coming from GRACE-Based satellite information shows Brazil’s growing area is improving in soil moisture while Argentina is drying out. This is possibly evidence that La Nina is having an impact on South American weather.
SA 2-Week Precip Forecast
Brazil has very good rains in central and northern areas. Just extreme southern Brazil drying out. Argentina has very little rain in the forecast with Uruguay in between looking to be relatively dry as well. Looking at the second week of the forecast, central and northern Brazil still looks good. Southern Brazil looks to be drying out. Argentina looks to be drying out as well and Uruguay, although its not a major producer, also looking dry. We don’t want to sound an alarm at this time, but it is something that certainly bears watching.
3-Day Observed Precipitation
No rain has fallen across almost the entire U.S. corn and bean belt over the past few days.
U.S. Radar
Virtually no rain falling in the corn and bean belt as of today midday.
3-Day Precipitation Forecast
Other than rains coming in tonight in SD, tomorrow in MN, and the Great Lakes region on Thursday but the majority of the belt, south of the frontal system looks to remain dry. That means much of the corn and bean belt will be able to harvest nearly uninterrupted for nearly an entire week.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices continue to look good from a chart perspective, in fact, today’s rally earlier in the day was attempting to break out to the upside. Although we had somewhat of a disappointing close, the chart and technicals still look pretty good for corn with $5.48 the next level of overhead resistance.
November Soybean Chart
Similar situation in soybeans where the chart looks pretty good. Making another new high today. Technicals still look pretty good and beans closed fairly strong. The next levels of overhead resistance from $12.45-$12.60 on the Nov soybean chart.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices also had a good day, new highs for the move. Wheat did not close exceptionally well but the chart looks pretty good and the technicals look pretty good as well. No sign of topping action at least not yet with the next level of overhead resistance the highs from about 2-3 weeks ago at $7.64.
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