To zoom in on a phone, tablet, or touch screen, place two fingers on screen and move them apart. To zoom out pinch fingers together.
Today’s Prices
Today’s video is produced around noon. Prices are mixed after a week of back and forth trade.
Weekly Prices Summary
Grain Market News
Oct Crop Report Yield Changes
This chart shows the yield change from Sept to Oct. This year in 2021 corn yield increased by 0.2 bu and bean yields increased by 0.9 bu. If you look at this chart there is no strong trend as far as yield estimates going up or down Oct. We have plenty of instances where yields increased in the Oct crop report and plenty of instances where yields declined in the Oct report. The zero line indicates no changes. Above the line are yield increases. Anything below that line is yield decreases.
Nov Crop Report Yield Changes
This chart shows the Nov crop report yield changes compared to Oct. Again, we see plenty of years where yields increased in Nov and plenty of year where yields decreased in Nov. Recently we’ve generally have seen a trend of yield declining from Oct to Nov in 2018, 2019, and 2020. Prior to that we had seen a fair number of yields increase in the Nov crop report. There is certainly attitude that big crops will continue to increase and has the bears thinking the yields will increase while the bulls will state that the tail end of harvest is not coming in as good as the start of harvest. We’re looking for only minor changes in the yield going into the Nov crop report but it does appear that beans could come up just a little bit.
Grain Market News
El Nino/La Nina
This chart plots sea surface temperatures in the location Nino3.4. Anything above zero means sea surface temperatures are above average. Anything below zero means sea surface temperatures are below average. Last year Oct, Nov, Dec, and into Jan we had a La Nina condition. This year it could be even stronger and peak out at about 1.3 degrees below normal. This year the NWS believe the La Nina could peak out at nearly 2 degrees Celsius below normal. That is a very strong La Nina and many times weather forecasters will associate La Nina conditions with drier than normal weather in Argentina and adjacent areas to the north.
SA 30-Day Precipitation vs Average
Brazil’s primary growing regions shows conditions a little below normal to a little above normal in central and northern Brazil and well below normal in extreme southern Brazil. In addition to near normal precipitation, the forecast is calling for very good rains in central and northern Brazil over the next two weeks. In Argentina, conditions have been drier than normal and that extends into Uruguay, southern Brazil, and possibly southern Paraguay. This is not uncommon with a La Nina condition building in the Pacific Ocean. There is concern this will continue, if not strength with below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures in this entire region of South America’s growing region and again, this is the area to monitor as we move into November.
3-Day Observed Precipitation
We’ve had a dry week in the central and southern U.S. belt. Harvest likely running wide open in almost all areas. We did have a delay late Tuesday into Wednesday in the northern belt. Guys are reporting they’re already back in the field in portions of SD and MN. The exception might be the areas that got 1-3” of rain. They may have to wait a little bit but much of the northern Plains and northwestern belt getting back into the fields over the past couple of days. It’s been a very good week for harvest and we could see our largest harvest advance of the year for corn and beans this week.
U.S. Radar
We have a few scattered showers in SD. A few snow in western MN but the bulk of the U.S. corn and bean belt is mostly dry and harvest continues to race ahead.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
The forecast turns much wetter next week 1-3”, even 2-4” across the central belt, eastern belt, OH Valley, and Delta. The only area that looks to be dry over the next week are the Plain states. Rains could delay harvest in the central and eastern belt but keep in mind we’re likely 70% done with corn and about 80% down with beans.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices are in an uptrend off the lows established a little over a week ago. We have now consolidated a little bit after a nice bounce. A 34 cents bounce off lows, prices are now consolidating. The technical indicators still look pretty good with today’s market trading a little higher.
November Soybean Chart
Soybeans are in a long term downtrend. Now they did recover off the lows a week and a half ago at $11.84. In fact, rallied all the way up to $12.49, that was a 65 cent rally and now the market is correcting. We’re in the middle of our downtrending channel as the market waits for additional news regarding U.S. yields and regarding South American weather. There’s enough for both the bears and the bulls to keep this market choppy in the near term and that can seen with the technical indicators now chopping right in the middle of a neutral range.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat is in a long-term uptrend. The short-term trend is up as well. In fact, wheat posted a new high at $7.74 earlier today. That is a new contract high and keeps the overall bull market intact on the KC wheat chart. Technical indicators are getting close to the overbought but there is no sign of topping action, at least not yet in the wheat market.
To return to the previous page on your mobile device, click the back arrow in the bottom tool bar.