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Today’s Prices
Grain prices fished mixed today with corn and beans a little bit higher following a roller coaster type day.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Harvest
U.S. Corn harvest is 66% complete, slightly below last year but still well ahead of average over the last 13 years, the average is 43%.
U.S. Soybean Harvest
U.S. soybean harvest is 73% complete. That is again behind last year’s pace but ahead of the average pace over the past 13 years which is 68% complete. Harvest has been progressing nicely, ahead of average but we are going to get a much slower period now. Rains are moving into the far northern Plains today. Those rains will move across the belt Wed, Thurs, and last into Friday in the east. So this week is going to be a relatively slow week of harvest especially given some areas are still drying out from rains that fell over the weekend.
Winter Wheat Crop Condition
USDA released its first winter wheat crop condition rating of the season. They rated the U.S. winter wheat condition at 46% G/E. That is above last year’s initial rating 41% but it’s still near the lower end of ratings over the past 13 years. The rating at 46% G/E was below trading expectations. Trade ideas were 53-54% G/E so the lower rating was considered lightly supportive for the wheat market.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
Over the last 7 days we’ve seen some significant rains in the northwestern belt, specifically eastern SD and southwestern MN where 1-2” of rain fell, even isolated heavier amounts. We also saw heavy rain over the weekend. Many areas saw 2-4” of rain with a few areas, especially west central IL seeing more. Areas that missed out on the rain were the far northern Plains, up near the Canadian border and also the central and southern Plains where they remain dry.
U.S. Radar
The radar shows that rains are exiting the eastern belt today but another batch of rain is moving into the northern and central Plains. That rain is expected to be in the Dakota’s tomorrow, and then into MN Wed and Thurs, the eastern belt Fri and into the weekend. This system has slowed down and looks to be a relatively slow mover and could give any given location across the belt rains for about a day and a half to two days.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast
As that system pushes across the belt, the central belt should see the heaviest rains of 1-2” even 3” of rain while the eastern belt generally 1-2” of rain. Unfortunately for farmers that have been dealing with a lot of mud from the last weekend, they’re not going to get much drying here.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Exports 2021-22
This chart shows U.S. exports categories and based on how they’re being tallied by the government. All of these numbers are shown as a percent change from last year. The red line is USDA’s estimate. They’re estimating exports will be down 9.2% from last year. USDA is estimating exports will be 2.50 bb this year versus 2.753 bb last year. The other categories are export inspections and Accum Exports. Those are two different sets of numbers that are being counted by the government as they leave U.S. ports. One is done by the Inspection Service and the other one by the Ag Census. The blue line is outstanding sales, sales that the U.S. has on the books but has not yet left the U.S. ports. The green line shows the total commitments combines exports that have left with the outstanding sales on the books. Outstanding sales and total commitments are above last year’s pace. That has allowed our actual shipments, both accumulated exports and export inspections to be increasing significantly over the past 4-6 weeks. The tremendous improvement in what we’re actually shipping is due to new crop availability and U.S. prices have become much more competitively and finally, we’re getting back to a more normal exporting program out of the lower MS Valley and the New Orleans area following Hurricane Ida. With our outstanding sales still above and well above USDA’s target we do believe actual export shipment will be catching up to USDA’s total and that means USDA is not likely to change its corn export in its Nov crop report coming out 2 weeks from today. It’s worth noting, when most of the numbers are approaching USDA’s target, that means USDA will be comfortable in leaving their export forecast unchanged because all of the actual numbers are coming into line with what they’re expecting.
U.S. Soybeans Exports 2021-22
U.S. exports have been well behind USDA’s forecast here at the beginning of the marketing year. We started out with total commitments well below a year ago but what we’re actually shipping is increasing dramatically. We’re still well below USDA’s target which is for exports to being down 7.7% this year. That’s exports of 2.090bb this year vs 2.265 bb last year. The fact that our outstanding sales and total commitments are holding steady and actual shipments are increasing tremendous leaves us to believe USDA may choose to leave its export forecast unchanged for another month with the thought that our actual shipments are going to continue to catch up to USDA’s number over the next 2-3 months. But soybean numbers will need to be monitored closely. Total commitments are well below USDA’s total. We need to see China coming in with bigger purchases over the next 60-90 days.
U.S. Wheat Exports 2021-22
Wheat exports have been lagging USDA’s target. USDA expecting exports will be down 11.8% this year. That would be 875 mb versus 992 mb a year ago. The good news is the actual export inspections have been running very close to USDA’s target and our outstanding sales and commitments are inching very gradually upward. If these trends continue, we’d eventually reach USDA’s total of exports down 11.8% but we do need to see some better sales coming onto the books over the next 60-90 days.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices had a very good day. After trading lower this morning, they rallied nicely midday, posting a high of $5.47, a new high for this move and challenging the highs set in early Oct at $5.48. It keeps the chart looking pretty good and technicals still pointed upward as well. We’re getting fairly close to our next level of significant overhead resistance which is up around $5.50 or just a little bit better but there is no sign of topping action yet in the corn market based on today’s strong close.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices also had a good day. Prices were higher early in the day, turning around and closing just a fraction higher but the overall trend is still looking like an upward trend and the technical indicators are still pointed upward as well. From a strictly chart and technical standpoint it does tell us we have initial overhead resistance at $12.49 highs from last week and then additional overhead resistance at the downtrend line which comes into play in the $12.60-$12.70 type range. But likely corn, no sign of topping action at least not yet in the soybean market.
December KC Wheat Chart
Very impressive move on wheat today, posting new contract highs and breaking through overhead resistance. One negative item is the fact that wheat turned around and closed about unchanged, giving back those strong gains from earlier today. With technical indicators in the overbought range, we’re a little bit concerned this market may want to make another correction back towards chart support. Because of the big rally we’ve seen recently, chart support would come in around $7.50 and that’s about 25 cents below where we closed today.
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