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Today’s Prices
Grain prices finished mixed today as there are some signs at least from a trading perspective that the markets may have found a temporary top.
Grain Market News
U.S. Corn Harvest
U.S. corn harvest did hit 74% complete in USDA’s report yesterday afternoon. That is up from 66% last week. We’re a little bit behind last year’s pace in the yellow line but well ahead of the long-term average. Next week’s harvest could be pushing around 85% complete for the U.S. corn harvest.
U.S. Soybean Harvest
U.S. soybean harvest was reported at 79% complete, just a 6% increase from last week’s 73%. We’re still behind last year’s pace for soybean harvest and now we’re pretty much right on the long-term average. U.S. soybean harvest could push close to 90% in next week’s report.
7-Day Observed Precipitation
The 7-day forecast shows mostly dry outlook for the next 7 days. Most of the corn and bean belt will be completely dry if this forecast is correct and that will certainly allow for harvest to really ramp up and wrap up any areas.
SA 2-Week Precip Forecast
South American weather is mostly favorable at this time. In Brazil, central and northern Brazil getting very good rain. A little bit more scattered in the south in the first week of the forecast but in the second week of the forecast some of those dry pockets may be filled in. Overall, we do not see any threats to crops or planting in Brazil. In Argentina, the first week of the forecast shows pretty go rains in central and northern Argentina. The second week of the forecast showing pretty good rains in central and southern Argentina. If the forecast is correct most areas of South America will be in pretty shape as we approach the middle of Nov. It’s still very early, in fact, they haven’t wrapped up planting in Argentina and Brazil but they’re getting off to a pretty good start.
Winter Wheat Crop Condition
U.S. winter wheat crop condition rating came out in yesterday afternoon’s weekly update. U.S. winter wheat was down 1% from 46% to 55% G/E. That is up just slightly from last year but relatively low from long term perspective. We do want to note, fall crop conditions in wheat are not a strong indicator of overall yield potential. But nonetheless, the trade is monitoring those conditions as we head into the dormancy period.
Grain Market News
USDA Corn Yield Estimate
USDA significantly increased the corn yield in the Sept report and then USDA increased yields just slightly in the Oct crop report. Many in the trade seem to be indicating they’re expecting steady to maybe a fraction higher in the Nov crop report next week on Tuesday. Again, official trade guesses will be released over the next few days.
USDA Soybean Yield Estimate
Based on word in market regarding U.S. soybean yield, USDA is likely to raise the yield. USDA raised the yield in the Sept crop report and then raised it again in the Oct crop report. Many in the trade believe the yield will be up close to the 52 bpa and up again in next week’s report. Yield reports coming in off the combine have been impressive especially in the western belt. There’s a little bit of an attitude that big crops get bigger. Again, the trade will be likely coming in with an average trade guess looking for a larger U.S. soybean yield in next week’s report.
December Corn Chart
Corn prices made a new high for the move up to $5.86 but then the market turned around and closed lower on the day, closing at $5.73, 13 cents off the daily high. The chart still looks pretty good but today’s performance was somewhat disappointing for the bulls so mixed signals from the corn market today. Technical indicators are extremely overbought and today’s minor reversal to the downside was enough to hook those technical indicators slightly lower. Tomorrow it will be important for the bulls to see the market rebound and close higher.
Weekly Corn Chart
From 2014-2020 we had surplus supplies of corn and prices generally $3-$4.50/bu but as stocks got extremely tight last spring, prices rallied into the $6-$7 range but given the fact that we had a pretty good crop this year, prices have fallen back in primarily the upper $4 to upper $5 range over the last couple of months.
November Soybean Chart
Soybean prices were higher today, but prices are stuck between overhead resistance from a downtrend line and the 40-day with the 10 and 20-day moving averages and a short-term uptrend line providing support. Beans are stuck right in that narrow range as we head towards next week’s Nov crop report. Corn and wheat are trying to pull beans higher while at the same time, anticipation of larger stocks trying to pull beans low. That is why we’ve been stuck in this narrow range over the last week or so.
Weekly Soybean Chart
In the 2014-2020 timeframe prices were primarily between about $8-$10.50 but tight stocks last year pulled prices sharply higher and now a record large crop in South America combined with pretty good yields in the U.S. has prices down in the $12-$12.50 range.
December KC Wheat Chart
Wheat prices posted a new contract high this morning at $8.14 but turned around and closed at $7.98, 16 cents off the daily high. Very similar to corn, it was a reversal day. Not a massive reversal but nonetheless a reversal with prices trading to new highs then closing a little lower. Techncial indicators are overbought and today’s reversal was enough to cause them to hook just a little bit to the downside. It will be very important for the market to close higher to keep the bull trend intact.
Weekly Wheat Chart
Prices again making a new contract high at $8.14 and after spending about 5-6 years in the $3.60-$5.80 type range, Wheat prices working higher, now hitting $8 given the fact U.S. and global wheat supplies have been on the decline. In fact, prices in Europe hitting a new all-time high today and that is certainly providing support to the global wheat market.
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